Here are the headlines from the corporate press.
The Ukrainian forces are falling into disaray and the militias are taking back territory;the Ukraine junta is falling apart and the Ukrainian economy collapsing.
Blame Putin!
Ukraine
Says Russian Forces Lead Major New Offensive in East
27
August, 2014
NOVOAZOVSK,
Ukraine — Tanks, artillery and infantry have crossed from Russia
into an unbreached part of eastern Ukraine in recent days, attacking
Ukrainian forces and causing panic and wholesale retreat not only in
this small border town but also a wide section of territory, in what
Ukrainian and Western military officials described on Wednesday as a
stealth invasion.
The
attacks outside this city and in an area to the north essentially
have opened a new, third front in the war in eastern Ukraine between
government forces and pro-Russian separatists, along with the
fighting outside the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Exhausted,
filthy and dismayed, Ukrainian soldiers staggering out of Novoazovsk
for safer territory said Tuesday they were cannon fodder for the
forces coming from Russia. As they spoke, tank shells whistled in
from the east and exploded nearby.
Pro-Russia
rebels paraded Ukrainian prisoners of war through the main street in
central Donetsk on Sunday. Onlookers shouted insults and pelted the
prisoners with beer bottles, eggs and tomatoes.In Eastern Ukraine,
Rebel Mockery Amid Independence Celebration
Some
of the retreating Ukrainian soldiers appeared unwilling to fight. The
commander of their unit, part of the Ninth Brigade from Vinnytsia, in
western Ukraine, barked at the men to turn around, to no effect. “All
right,” the commander said. “Anybody who refuses to fight, sit
apart from the others.” Eleven men did, while the others returned
to the city.
Some
troops were in a full, chaotic retreat: a city-busload of them
careened past on the highway headed west, purple curtains flapping
through windows shot out by gunfire. A Ukrainian military spokesman
said Wednesday the army still controlled Novoazvosk but that 13
soldiers had died in the fighting.
The
behavior of the Ukrainian forces corroborated assertions by Western
and Ukrainian officials that Russia, despite its strenuous denials,
is orchestrating a new counteroffensive to help the besieged
separatists of the Donetsk People’s Republic, who have been reeling
from aggressive Ukrainian military advances in recent weeks.
“Russia
is clearly trying to put its finger on the scale to tip things back
in favor of its proxies,” said a senior American official.
“Artillery barrages and other Russian military actions have taken
their toll on the Ukrainian military.”
The
Obama administration, which has placed increasingly punitive economic
sanctions on Russia because of the Ukraine crisis, asserted over the
past few days that the Russians had sent new columns of tanks and
armor across the border.
“These
incursions indicate a Russian-directed counteroffensive is likely
underway,” Jen Psaki, the State Department spokeswoman, said
Wednesday. At the department’s daily briefing in Washington, Ms.
Psaki also criticized what she called the Russian government’s
“unwillingness to tell the truth” that its military had sent
soldiers as deep as 30 miles inside Ukraine territory.
Ms.
Psaki apparently was referring to videos of captured Russian
soldiers, distributed by Ukraine’s government on Tuesday, that
directly challenged President Vladimir V. Putin’s assertions that
Russia is a mere bystander in the conflict. The videos were
publicized just as Mr. Putin was meeting with his Ukraine
counterpart, Petro O. Poroshenko, in Belarus.
Russian
forces have been trying to help the separatists break the siege of
Luhansk and have been fighting to open a corridor to Donetsk from the
Ukrainian-Russian border, Western officials say.
To
the south, Russia has been backing a separatist push toward the
southern town of Mariupol, a major port on the Sea of Azov, according
to Western and Ukrainian officials. The Russian aim, one Western
official said, is to open a new front that would divert Ukrainian
forces from Donetsk and Luhansk and to possibly seize an outlet to
the sea in the event that Russia tries to establish a separatist
enclave in eastern Ukraine.
Some
Western officials fear the move might even be a step in what they
suspect is a broader Russian strategy to carve out a land link to
Crimea, the strategic Ukrainian peninsula that Russia annexed in
March, setting off Moscow’s worst crisis with the West since the
Cold War.
The
Russian military’s use of artillery from locations within Ukraine
is of special concern to Western military officials, who say Russian
artillery has already been used to shell Ukrainian forces near
Luhansk. And along with the antiaircraft systems operated by
separatists or Russian forces inside Ukraine, the artillery has the
potential to alter the balance of power in the struggle for control
of eastern Ukraine.
Russia
has denied that it has intervened militarily in Ukraine and the
separatists have asserted that they are using captured Ukrainian
equipment. But American officials say they are confident that the
artillery in Ukraine’s Krasnodon area is Russia’s since Ukrainian
forces have not penetrated that deeply into that
separatist-controlled region. American officials also say the
separatists have no experience in using such weaponry.
“We
judge that self-propelled artillery is operated by Russians rather
than separatists since no separatist training on this artillery has
occurred to date,” an Obama administration official said.
The
United States has photographs that show the Russian artillery moved
into Ukraine, American officials say. One photo dated Aug. 21, shown
to a reporter from The New York Times, shows Russian military units
moving self-propelled artillery into Ukraine. Another photo, dated
Aug. 23, shows the artillery in firing positions in Ukraine.
Advanced
air defenses, including systems not known to be in the Ukrainian
arsenal, have also been used to blunt the Ukrainian military’s air
power, American officials say. In addition, they said, the Russian
military routinely flies drones over Ukraine and shares the
intelligence with the separatists.
The
Ukrainian retreat from the border area near Novoazovsk, which began
on Tuesday, came as Mr. Putin told Mr. Poroshenko that the Ukrainian
insurgency was an internal matter and that the Ukrainian government
needed to negotiate a cease-fire.
By
coupling the Russian military actions with his political talks in
Minsk, Mr. Putin appeared to be calculating that Moscow could
intervene in eastern Ukraine with conventional Russian forces without
risking further Western economic sanctions.
Ukraine Crisis in Maps
A
day after Ukraine announced the capture of 10 Russian soldiers in the
Donetsk region, fighting erupted to the south, the latest update to
the current visual survey of the continuing dispute, with maps and
satellite imagery showing rebel and military movement.
On
the highway here, Sgt. Ihor Sharapov, a soldier with the Ukrainian
border patrol unit, said he had seen tanks drive across the border
but marked with flags of the separatist movement here, the Donetsk
People’s Republic.
The
group that attacked the city crossed from Russia, and though some
soldiers were convinced they had spent two days fighting the
Russians, others said they had no way of knowing who was inside the
tanks, or the identities of the infantry who crossed the border and
advanced toward this town.
“I
tell you they are Russians, but this is what proof I have,” said
Sgt. Aleksei Panko, holding up his thumb and index finger to form a
zero. Sergeant Panko estimated that about 60 armored vehicles crossed
near Novoazovsk. “This is what happened: they crossed the border,
took up positions and started shooting.”
The
Ukrainian Vinnytsia brigade met the cross-border advance over the six
miles of countryside separating Novoazovsk from the Russian border,
but later retreated to the western edge of town along the
Rostov-Mariupol highway, where soldiers were collapsed in exhaustion
on the roadside. “This is now a war with Russia,” Sergeant Panko
said.
The
counteroffensive that Ukrainian officers said was at least in part
staged across the border from Russia pushed the Ukrainian army off a
75 mile-long highway from Donetsk south to the Azov Sea.
On
Wednesday, it amounted to a no-man’s land of empty villages, roads
crisscrossed by armored vehicle treads, felled trees and grass fires
burning out of control, and panoramas of sunflower and corn rotting
unharvested in the fields.
To
the west of the Novoazovsk highway, the contrails of Ukrainian Grad
rockets rose toward the sky, and to the east, black smoke from their
impacts where Ukrainian soldiers said the newly arrived armored
columns were moving near the Russian border.
The
countryside was changing hands and the Ukrainians falling back
westward, leaving under fire along side roads. One such route was
littered with two incinerated Ukrainian army trucks, smoldering in
the early evening, and an abandoned armored vehicle.
“The
Ukrainians slipped away and the Donetsk People’s Republic hasn’t
yet arrived,” said Roman Bespaltsev, a resident of the village of
Starobeshovo south of Donetsk.
Overview of the Situation in the Donbass Region from Gleb Bazov
Overview of the Situation in the Donbass Region – August 24, 2014
Translated by Daniel Mikhailovich
Edited by Olga Luzanova
Edited by Olga Luzanova
The
Fighting in the Coastal Area
Even
recently, it might have seemed laughable, but today the fighting has
begun in the area of Novoazovsk, where a powerful anti-aircraft
defense node and a hodgepodge of different units of questionable
combat capability have been stationed since April to cover the
border with Russia. After the Southern Encirclement 2.0 was created,
the Militiamen began to probe the other checkpoints to the south-west
of Marinovka, and were surprised to find out that there are almost no
defenses. All the forces were drawn up to the main front line,
creating a gap to the south of Amvrosievka, which was only
partially covered with the covering forces. At first, the
Militia’s saboteur-reconnaisance groups (“SRG”) began to
infiltrate to the south-west, which has led to the capture of the
"Uspenka" border checkpoint. After that, the Militia
broke-out to the coast, as there were no serious forces of the Junta.
As a result, several SRGs moved almost to Novoazovsk and the towns of
Holodnoe and Sedovo, firing and attacking some checkpoints.
The
Militia obviously doesn't have enough forces there to seize and
hold the towns (let alone capturing Novoazovsk or Mariupol); but
judging by the reports that a bomb shelter has been opened in
Mariupol, the command of the Junta in this area lost their nerve. It
is not only that the gap along the border continues to expand,
there is also a threat (even if remote for now) to Novoazovsk and
Mariupol; as there are few Junta's forces there, and
nobody knows what can appear from across the border. Moreover,
the gap in the front, to the south of Amvrosievka, also does not
seem optimistic. In general, what is happening now is not yet an
offensive with definite goals, but just a distracting raid in
the rear of the enemy, which turned out to be an unpleasant surprise
for the Junta. To be honest, very few people expected the fighting on
the coast of the Sea of Azov to start so soon. In general, the
trend is favorable for us.
Ilovaysk
Today
near Ilovaysk the Junta has continued its attempts "to break
through the wall with its head", sending almost all of the
combat-ready forces to attack Ilovajsk. The attack bogged down even
before the Junta talking heads could declare that Ilovajsk has been
taken once again. This is a very weird stubbornness, given
that a more effective plan would involve encircling and
taking Mospino, and the gaps in the front to the south of
Amvrosievka. The strategic point of the attack is long gone; it
is an attempt to reverse the situation with insufficient forces -
because even if by some miracle the Junta takes the ruins of Ilovaysk
and pushes out the Militia, it will not go beyond one tactical
success against the backdrop of the bleak strategic situation.
Saur-Mogila,
Schachtersk and Torez
Fighting
continued, with both sides largely staying on their positions. The
Junta’s mechanized units tried to move towards Miner and Thorez,
but didn’t make it far.
Theoretically,
these battles are good for the Militia, as the Junta spends reserves
there quite aimlessly. That has made the punitive battalions
(volunteer units made up of activists/neo-nazis/released criminals)
suspect that the Junta command deliberately drives the southern
battlegroup into a meat grinder. (That is one version - that they
are agents of the Kremlin - another, because that is how Poroshenko
gets rid of radical elements). All in all, another week or so of such
operations, and the Junta there will be in for a surprise. Southern
Encirclement 2.0 has held out so far, but the Junta losses and the
Militia trophies there will be considerable - the Militia is
currently attacking on Dyakovo and offering the surrounded forces the
same conditions as before - retreat to Russia, leaving the vehicles
to the Militia.
Donetsk
In
the north of Donetsk the Junta seems absolutely exhausted, only
pretending that the failed offensive is proceeding via
the SRGs' forces and continuing shelling; whereas the
self-defense Militia forces managed to start an offensive
towards Uglegorsk which, although not yet taken, hardly looks like a
springboard for the Junta's attack on Yenakievo anymore. The Militia
will try to take it in the coming days to protect Gorlovka and
Yenakievo and prevent the bisection Donetsk-Gorlovka battlegroup. In
general, it is now possible to say conclusively that the attack
on Donetsk has failed, and there is no direct threat to the city. And
the enemy was not merely driven from Yasinovataya and back to
Uglegorsk. In the area of Zhdanovka there was another
mini-encirclement, and the Junta salient in the area of Verhnyaya and
Nizhnyaya Krynka has been wiped out, with the Militia taking captives
and trophies. The front is gradually approaching Debalcevo, which is
one of the priority objectives for the Militia.
Debalcevo
To the
north of Debalcevo, the self-defense forces delivered an unexpected
blow to the Junta, towards the north-west, with the result that the
forward units were able to move to the vicinity of Severodonetsk.
There were overly optimistic statements that the Militia had
been about to take back Severodonetsk and Lisichansk, but in
fact, there is a lack of Militia forces there, and taking two major
cities at once would be quite problematic, especially with the
advance SRGs alone. The weakness of the Junta's forces in this
area provides various options for offensive action - the fact is that
most of the Junta battlegroup that took Lisichansk from the Militia
were later moved to other areas - some units moved towards
Debalcevo and Yasinovataya, some left for Schast’e and Stanitsa
Luganskaya. As a result, the Militia found a weak spot and delivered
a nasty blow that led to a breakthrough in the front. The main thing
is that this breakthrough, and the raid of saboteur-reconnaisance
groups by the coast, demonstrates that the operational
depth of the enemy forces is not high. After breaking after through
the enemy front in weak areas, the Militia is able to act in the
operational vacuum, where the enemy has practically no reserves. But
due to lack of strength, those nasty (for the Junta) breakouts have
not yet led to decisive results. It is clear that if the Militia
had dedicated 15-20 tanks, as many BMPs and 200-300 infantry to
one of these gaps, then it would have taken the cities in the rear of
the enemy. But for now the Militia do what they can.
Lugansk
The
Junta offensive against Lugansk failed. The enemy has been driven off
from Hryaschevatoe; they are still holding by Novosvetlovskaya, but
this is a purely defensive action. The self-defense militia forces
have already started an offensive against Lutugino and Chast’e. The
loss of either one of these would be a complete disaster for the
battlegroup besieging Lugansk, as it would be dissected into several
parts; although some of it is actually in operational encirclement
even now. Today, predictably, there was an attack from the south in
the Volnuhino area, and as a result, there is a direct threat to
Lutugino; there are already militia combat recon groups on the
outskirts. The general meaning of combat here is that if the militia
take back Lutugino, they will then be able to fully control the route
Lugansk-Krasny Luch, which would greatly enhance the connectivity of
Novorossiya’s territory and the coordination of its armed forces.
In this regard, Lutugino and Debalcevo are the key nodes of the
transport network in the region, and control over them is a part of
the struggle for the operational initiative.
In
general, the situation, even though it is still difficult, is
obviously improving. In a number of areas, the militia are now
on the offensive, while the Junta offensive has petered out and
stoped almost everywhere.
Original
article: Colonel
Cassad
Map of Operations, August 10-25, 2014 – Created by Kot Ivanov and Anthony Hartin
Translated by Daniel Mihailovitch
Edited by S. Naylor
Edited by S. Naylor
Official Briefing from the DPR, as of August 25, 2014, and Commentary
Original: Colonel Cassad LiveJournal
From: Semen Semenchenko(commander of the Ukrainian Donbass punitive battalion)
To: The Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Valeriy Geletey.
To the ATO(Anti-Terrorist
Operation)* command. Despite the numerous warnings about the situation
that is currently unfolding in sector B, despite the information from
yesterday and today about the tank breakthrough from sector D and also
from the border with the Russian Federation, from the area of Mospino,
the situation with regards to sending us additional units of the
UAF(Ukraine Armed Forces) was never resolved. Currently it is necessary
to stop the retreat of the units that up until now covered our rear.
Those units that report to your HQ, from the area of
Kuteynikovo-Starobeshevo, must return the artillery and to perform a
massive counterattack into the area [of the breakthrough], and to use
armored vehicles in this attack. You do have these forces. If this does
not get done and the situation will continue to deteriorate. I reserve
the right to interpret the lack of activity of the UAF leadership in the
most negative light. If needed – you personally must stand with a
pistol on the road and take control of the situation. Act, finally, act!
P.s. Please forgive me. I cannot write what exactly is happening right now. You are not the only one reading this.
Official DPR Briefing, as of August 25, 2014
Original: DNR.Today
In
the course of the offensive operation, the militia forces have
completely destroyed the government military base in Sedovo, and routed
all the enemy checkpoints around Sedovo and Novoazovsk. There's an
ongoing sweep of these two cities for remaining Junta forces. Taking
control of Novoazovsk will open a direct road to Mariupol for the DPR
army forces, and we plan to take this city in the near future.
Fierce
fighting is happening near the Svyato-Uspensky Nikolo-Vasilyevsky
monastery (village Nikolskoye of Volnovaha district). In the settlement
of Markino there is fighting against the entrenched militants of the
punitive battalions "Dnieper-1" and "Donbass". The LPR militia conducted
a recon by combat action on Lutugino. There is information that the
town of Rodakovo has been taken [by our units].
According
to the data of the DPR Ministry of Defense HQ, the government forces
lost 110 people KIA and 75 WIA fighting for Ilovaysk. 28 military
vehicles were destroyed or disabled. By the morning of August 25th, yet
another (third) battlegroup of the enemy was also fully encircled in the
area of the settlements Stepanovka, Amvrosiyevka and Stepano-Krynka.
The
whole night militia forces were focused on narrowing the encirclement
around the two blockaded Ukrainian battlegroups in the area of the
settlements Voykovsky, Kuteynikovo, Blagodatnoye, Alekseevskoye,
Uspenka, Ulyanovskoye, and also near the settlement of Yelenovka.
According to the intelligence reports, in these encirclements there are
more than 40 tanks, about 100 IFVs, APCs and airborne IFVs, 50 MLRS
(Multiple Launch Rocket System) "Grad" and "Uragan" vehicles, and more
than 60 field artillery and mortar pieces.
As
a result of a recon by combat action, detachments of the DPR army
entered Yelenovka, destroying up to 8 tanks, up to 19 armored vehicles
and a mortar battery. The enemy was pushed out of the two checkpoints on
the road from Donetsk to this settlement (i.e. Yelenovka). Three
prisoners were taken, three MT-12 anti-tank guns with ammunition, an
MTLB APC with a ZU-23-2 mounted, and a GAZ-66.
The
militia launched offensives on two major cities - Severodonetsk in the
northwest of Lugansk region, and Debaltsevo - in east of Donetsk region.
The militia is concentrating considerable forces by Lisichansk and
Severodonetsk, on the outskirts of which (Severodonetsk) the LPR
militiamen have already occupied the villages of Belaya Gora and
Borovskoe. Offensive continues on all fronts.
PS. The
last phrase is a joy to read. But, actually, the reports from the last
3-4 days are pleasant in every way. Having survived through the darkest
days in mid-August, the militia managed to not only stop the advance of
the junta, but to also launch a decisive counter-offensive with the goal
of defeating the entire southern flank of the junta forces in Donbass.
For now it is absolutely unclear when and with what forces will the
junta try to break through to the surrounded forces south of Donetsk,
and how control over their intercepted communications could be restored.
About the Militia Counter-Offensive
Original: Colonel Cassad LiveJournal
1. The
situation has become precarious for the Junta in the area of
Novoazovsk and Mariupol. The Militia forces that penetrated from the
north, and also those that moved along the border with the Russian
Federation, created an operational crisis in the area of Novoazovsk,
which in itself implies a threat to Mariupol. The panic on the
Junta-aligned websites is not without foundation. As we mentioned
earlier, there are very few combat-capable units there - a hodgepodge of
police, punitive troops, border guards and air defense personnel,
clearly not the forces you can repel a serious Militia offensive with.
For
now the Junta is saved by the fact that the Militia forces there are
not so big and they are not achieving decisive results yet, although the
threat has already become very serious. The thing is, that by taking
advantage of the movement of Militia sabotage-reconnaissance-groups
(SRGs) to the south of the captured "Uspenka" border checkpoint, the
Militia also advanced along the border with Russia - which was cleared
from the Junta border guards - creating a local superiority in a
location that is critical for the Junta. This is the flip side of the
Junta’s decision to stop fighting for the border, due to the heavy
shelling of the Junta positions near the border by the Militia and "from
the territory of the Russian Federation". Currently, the Junta faces a
very unpleasant prospect - either it has to urgently find reserves for
the new front that suddenly opened up, or else it risks losing
Novoazovsk and may face a real threat of losing Mariupol. In general,
this blow is very unpleasant for the Junta, and it is further
complicated by the problems to the south of Donetsk.
2. The
gap in the front to the south of Amvrosievka, which the Junta
recklessly didn't plug for a few days, led to a disaster as expected.
Not only did the Militia use the gap to advance to Uspenka and
Novoazovsk and to create a threat for Mariupol. Also, the Junta units
that were drawn into the battle for Ilovaysk have spent their reserves,
which resulted in a Militia advance onto those Junta battle groups’
communications and the threat of attacking Militia units taking
Amvrosievka. An encirclement of a kind emerged, which is already the 3rd encirclement
in the south. Although this one is more of a partial encirclement - the
Militia intercepted a number of important roads to the south of the
main forces of the Junta battle group, but there's no talk yet about a
complete encirclement across all paths, because the Militia are actually
encircling a larger force with a smaller one. In the next few days the
Junta will try to break out of this critical encirclement, but if they
fail to do this, then the first two southern cauldrons will be chump
change compared to this one.
3. The
encirclement by Dyakovo is still not eliminated, the encircled forces
were given standard terms - leave and be interned in Russia, handing
over the vehicles and weapons – but their leadership refuses to accept
those, for now. But overall, the elimination of that encirclement is
just a matter of time and losses. Of course I would prefer for the
Militia to get the vehicles.
In
general, what is happening is indeed a counter-offensive, albeit with
insufficient forces. However, the blow was dealt at the time when the
Junta just suffered a defeat of its offensive towards Donetsk, and this
counteroffensive immediately triggered a serious operational crisis for
the Junta. The very nature of the events in the Donbass is changing and
now the argument is starting to shift from “will Novorossiya
survive?” to “what consequences will there be of the Junta’s defeat in
Donbass?”; including the question of “what borders would be the
starting point of negotiation?”. Perhaps the first diplomatic overtures
will happen tomorrow in Minsk.
A Short but Important Update
Original: Colonel Cassad LiveJournal
1. About
Strelkov: The news is ahead of the event. He got an offer to move in
and become a military adviser in the Krasnodon HQ, but he did not yet
agree to this. Someone apparently has seen it fit to leak the info to
the press. What were the goals of this leak, good or bad, is yet
unclear.
2. The
Panic in Mariupol: As I wrote before, the threat on the outskirts of
the city was multiplied by the confusion in the area, so when one of the
Junta armored columns retreating from Novoazovsk was mistaken for
Militia, this led to the hysteria of "DPR tanks are just about to roll
into Mariupol!”
Hence
the traffic jams of civilians and Junta soldiers at the highway to
Berdaynsk; people thought Mariupol would be taken today and in a panic
rushed out of the city. Interestingly, when it came to running, the
nationalist guard units easily outpaced the civilians, leaving just one
punitive battalion and the remnants of police forces to defend Mariupol.
This story is very significant in the sense that it clearly shows how
panic sweeps the entire management system - from the lowest neo-Nazi of
the "Azov" battalion to the Gauleiter (chief overseer – Ger.) of
Mariupol. In reality, advance Militia groups are fighting on the
outskirts of Mariupol, and Junta is reporting that they are about to
create a reliable line of defense and stop Militia forces from entering
Mariupol (Novoazovsk is already written off, apparently).
3. South-west
of Donetsk there is a gaping hole in the Junta frontline, with nothing
available to close it. Most of the supply routes of the southern Junta
battlegroup are intercepted by the Militia, or under fire and thus
impassable. The Junta’s situation is rapidly deteriorating and can
potentially develop into more than just another encirclement, with heavy
losses - but a full-blown disaster with the collapse of the entire
southern front of Junta forces in Donbass. In the next few days the
Militiamen are expecting enemy reserves from the rest of Ukraine, which
are now being hastily redeployed to reverse the effects of Militia
breakthroughs. Given that the forces of Militia are not so large, heavy
defensive battles against shock mechanized battle groups trying to break
the encirclement are likely. As you can understand, there is no
possibility of a continued assault on Donetsk anymore.
Taking
this into account, the defeat of the Junta to the south of Donetsk will
have implications for other areas - the Militia forces are moving
towards Debaltsevo and thinking about attacking Artemovsk and
Konstantinovka. But as the main forces are occupied in other areas, any
action there is mainly just to pin Junta forces in place.
4. There
is also this unverified information: In the Rostov region, there were a
series of bizarre murders on the M4 highway. Unknown criminals lay out a
strip with nails across the asphalt, and then shoot the drivers that
come out to see what was the matter. They do not take the cars, or
personal belongings of those killed. There were 3 or 4 such cases. There
is a suspicion that there may be some Ukrainian Neo-Nazis at work. We
are checking the information.
Overall,
we are seeing the war in the Donbass completely change direction, in
real time. But the victory is not yet assured, and in the coming days,
the Junta will do everything possible to turn this difficult situation
in their favor.
The Southern Front Catastrophe – August 27, 2014
Map of Operations, August 10-27, 2014 – Created by Kot Ivanov and Anthony Hartin
Novorossiya Military Briefing – Novorossiya Shall Be!
Original: Colonel Cassad LiveJournal
Translated from Russian by Daniel Mikhailovich / Edited by Gleb Bazov
Translated from Russian by Daniel Mikhailovich / Edited by Gleb Bazov
We
are currently witnessing an epic and in its own way historic event. The
Ukrainian regular army and the punitive battalions are suffering a
catastrophic defeat to the south of Donetsk. Only a short time ago the
Republics were in dire straits: the DPR was hanging only by a thin
supply thread, which the Ukrainian army was attempting to sever near
Shakhtersk and Krasnyi Luch; the summit of Saur-Mogila has been
abandoned, and Bolotov's counteroffensive had failed to bring decisive
victories.
To
many it seemed that the Militia forces were on the ropes and just about
to break, which would have led to the collapse of Novorossiya and a
military victory for the fascist Junta. Nevertheless, the Militia
managed to withstand the most severe blow, which the Junta dealt with
all the forces available to it in the first half of August. The Junta
did not conceal its plans, and the preparations for the assaults on
Shakhtersk and Lugansk were openly discussed. The bravura level of the
Junta’s triumphant reports that came with each new breakthrough of its
mechanized battle groups was off the charts.
The
first critical moment came when the soldiers of the 25th Airborne
Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (“UAF”) and the units of the
National Guard broke into Shakhtersk. In those days, the fate of the DPR
was hanging literally by a thread, and the Junta was on the verge of a
strategic victory. But those few militiamen that mired the Junta forces
in urban battles and held their ground until the reinforcements arrived
saved Novorossia from being dismembered into two parts. In subsequent
battles, the Junta’s breakthrough was localized and defused, and, after
sustaining heavy losses in personnel and military hardware, the Junta’s
forces in this location were routed.
The second critical moment came when a strike was made from Debaltsevo through Fashchevka, intended to converge with the 24th Mechanized
Brigade that was breaking out of the Southern Cauldron. It was an
ambitious plan, whereby the enemy tried to bisect Novorossiya by using
as a strike group the units that everybody assumed had been written off.
This joint strike on Miusinsk and Krasnyi Luch triggered a severe
crisis in Novorossiya because were very few troops in this area.
Miusinsk,
which the mechanized convoys of the junta slipped through unhindered,
was hardly defended at all, and in Krasnyi Luch some of the Cossacks
abandoned their positions. This gave rise to a palpable threat of
Novorossiya being split in two and of the militia grouping located in
the area of Torez-Snezhnoye-Saur-Mogila being eliminated. But, once
again, the courage of ordinary soldiers who clung to the towns of
Krasnyi Luch and Miusinsk allowed the Militia units to hold out until
the arrival of the reserves that aided in the purge of the enemy from
these cities. Having overcome the crisis, here also the Militia was able
to win decisive battles, which had far-reaching consequences.
Because
the offensive on Yasinovataya failed, the breakthrough to Verkhnyaya
Krynka and Zhdanovka aimed at cutting off Gorlovka was liquidated, and
the Junta failed to advance toward Yenakievo, in the second half of
August the Junta’s offensive started to run out of steam and the Militia
gradually began to gain offensive momentum.
Objectively,
the situation demanded that the Junta stop the offensive, regroup, pull
up reserves, create stores of fuel and ammunition, and then continue
the offensive by assembling new strike groups. Nevertheless, political
considerations dictated a continuation of the offensive by the same
depleted battle groups. Because the front in the LPR on the whole had
stabilized, the South Cauldron was routed, and the offensive to the
north of Donetsk had been stopped, the Junta continued its offensive in
the south, trying to take Ilovaysk and Mospino head-on despite the
serious operational risk. And as the more the Junta became embroiled in
these battles, the narrower became the front of its offensive. Having
begun in early August over a broad swath of the battlefront, already by
August 20th the Junta’s offensive narrowed effectively to a single
point.
The
outer limits of this offensive were the southern slopes of Saur-Mogila,
the semi-encircled Mospino and the southern suburbs of Ilovaisk. In the
last few days of the offensive, it was reduced simply to a primitive
frontal assault on Ilovaisk. Meanwhile, a threat that later proved to be
fatal was looming on the Junta’s southern flank. Having finished off
the Southern Cauldron and after repelling the offensive on Miusinsk and
Krasnyi Luch, the Militia recaptured Marinovka (which in July-August
twice went back and forth between the factions) and started to seep
along the border toward the Uspenka border-crossing checkpoint, in the
process encircling the Amvrosievka grouping.
It
is difficult to say why the Junta did not react to this threat – it is
possible that the Ukrainian command decided that the only danger in this
area was the activity of the saboteur-reconnaissance groups (“SRG”),
which, though unpleasant, carried no operational significance.
Alternatively, they may have thought that they will manage to achieve
success near Ilovaisk and then fend off the threat coming from the
south. As a result, the Militia was able to accumulate a sufficient
force to the south-east of Amvrosievka, and this force carried out a
cleaving strike on the supply lines of the main forces of the Junta that
were embroiled in the fighting near Ilovaisk, Mospino and Saur-Mogila.
At the same time, the forces of the enemy advancinf from the south were
met to the west of Mospino with a strike by a mechanized battle group of
the Militia. The Junta did not expect this maneuver because until quite
recently they were the ones trying to encircle Mospino from both sides.
By
the looks of it, the Junta’s intelligence missed this offensive
entirely, and as a result of this oversight a comparatively small
Militia force intercepted the main supply routes of the largest battle
group of the Junta to the south of Donetsk. This grouping was comprised
of the enemy’s most combat-capable units involved in the assaults on
Mospino, Saur-Mogila and Ilovaisk, including the three punitive
battalions – Azov, Shahtersk and Donbass-1, as well as the various
reinforcement units and independent companies. More than 5,000 soldiers,
approximately 180 various armoured vehicles, and up to 90 artillery
pieces, mortars, and MLRS ended up being surrounded.
Though
the difference in scale makes a direct comparison impossible, the
militia actually carried out a mini-“encirclement operation” similar to
the Stalingrad Cauldron – a classic pincer strike in converging
directions. While the Junta’s battle group had no Romanians or Italians
on its flanks, but it did, instead, have a gaping hole on one side, and
on the other side – barrier troops that were never meant to withstand an
attack by mechanized units. As a result, in addition to the unfinished
remnants of the Dyakovo Cauldron, the Amvrosiyevka Cauldron was created,
around which the militia began to create a ring of encirclement,
spreading its offensive to the south and to the south-west and in the
process occupying settlements deep in the rear of the southern grouping
of the Junta. At the same time, the enemy command structures rapidly
disintegrated. Battalion Azov in essence refused to subordinate, and the
majority of its troops fled to Mariupol. Battalions Donbass-1 and
Shahtersk became mired in urban combat for Ilovaisk and, instead of
breaking out of the cauldron, started to demand tanks and artillery from
the military in order to continue their assault on the city, which by
that time was pretty much a lost cause.
Because
only rearguard unites without heavy weapons remained outside the
cauldron, the Militia immediately began to develop the offensive to the
south-west of Amvrosievka, toward Starobeshevo, and took it by the
evening of August 26th. Meanwhile, militiamen were already moving toward Volnovakha on August 25th.
Effectively, the loss of these centres means that here the Junta does
not have positions from which it can try to break through to the
surrounded forces. The encircled troops, in essence, ended up deep in
the rear, far away from the new front line, and with a limited supply of
fuel and ammunition.
And
this new frontline is a gaping hole for the Junta, which has nothing to
plug it with. The remnants of its forces, including Battalion Azov,
fled to Mariupol, in the process abandoning several settlements
virtually without a shot. As a result, the Militia rolled directly into
the suburbs of Novoazovsk and onto the approaches to Mariupol. On the
Junta’s side, there is virtually no front from the area south of
Starobeshevo and up to Novoazovsk. The Milita’s lack of sufficient
troops is the only thing slowing down the looming catastrophe.
At
the same time, the Militia also developed its offensive to the west of
Mospino, toward Ugledar, Yelenovka, and Nikolskoye. Here the forces of
the Junta are few in number, so the Militia’s offensive has been
developing quite successfully, albeit not too rapidly. Near Yelenovka,
yet another "mini-cauldron" has formed, and the connectivity of the
Junta groups that held Donetsk in semi-encirclement has been irreparably
compromised.
The
Junta has no reserves with which to relieve the encircled group and to
patch the massive hole in the frontlines - they are now hastily
withdrawing troops from Perekop (on the Crimean border) and bringing
territorial battalions of questionable combat readiness to the front.
They have also announced the 4th wave
of mobilization and are trying quickly to drag ancient armoured
vehicles from long-term storage to the frontlines, in order to
compensate for the huge losses in personal and military hardware.- State Border of the Republic of Novorossiya
Overall, it still is not quite clear how the Junta intends to avoid a
complete defeat here. It will clearly not be able to restore the
previous frontline, and the only question is whether the surrounded
troops will be able to break out (and as they will have to do so on
their own, it is likely that they will have to make that decision as
soon as possible), and where the Militia’s offensive will stop - they
still have fairly limited forces and they are now routing a larger force
with a smaller force.
In
the meantime, the once-solid front, which stretched from Marinovka to
Yelenovka has now broken up into separate pockets of resistance with
intercepted supply lines. After this disaster it became absolutely clear
that the Junta does not have the capacity to destroy Novorossiya. By
squandering the most combat-capable brigades in systematic offensive
operations, the Junta sustained enormous losses and at the same time
suffered a crushing, purely military defeat. The southern front has
collapsed. Novorossiya shall exist!
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