A
unofficial Russian no-fly zone over Novorussia?
My
friend "J" just sent me this most interesting video where a
Novorussian solider describes how some unidentified aircraft
apparently engage Ukie fighters and bombers and, in one instance, box
them in and force them to land. This is the first and only time I
have ever heard of such a thing taking place, and I obviously cannot
vouch for the accuracy of this soldier's interpretation for what he
saw. Does that appear plausible? Well, think about it this way:
1)
The Ukies have clearly lost control over the Novorussian airspace.
Not only they not have the means to control it by force, they
probably are blind to what is taking place there.
2)
While US SIGINT might be able to detect Russian aircraft in
Novorussian airspace, they would have a hard time backing up that
claim without compromising their sacrosanct means and methods.
Besides, considering the short distances involved the Russian
aircraft could fly what is called a "low-low-low mission
profile" and remain pretty much undetectable.
3)
If a Russian Air Force aircraft shot down a Ukie, everybody could
credit the air defenses anyway and challenge anybody to prove
otherwise.
So
I would rate this source (the solider) as an 'unknown' but this story
as 'credible but uncorroborated'.
Still,
that would explain the heavy Ukie aircraft losses, would it not?
Cheers,
The
Saker
PS:
notice, by the way, how this solider repeatedly makes references to
WWII and to the Nazis! So - please - don't come and tell me that I
am the one constantly using references to topics which every Russian
knows are the crucial context in which today's events should be
understood.
Ukraine
SITREP July 2nd, 12:33 UTC/Zulu: A first evaluation of the latest
Ukie offensive on Novorussia.
Yesterday
I wrote "hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and settle
for anything in the middle". Today, and while it is way too
early to make any kind of definitive judgments, I feel that I can say
with some confidence that the worst has not happened and that, in
fact, there are signs that the Ukrainian offensive has, so far,
yielded no useful results.
I
have not heard from Juan or Gleb, but I have been carefully parsing
the news coming out of Novorussia in the Russian media and, more
importantly, in the Russian social media. They all concur on the
following:
The
Ukrainian attacks have used massive but non-discriminate firepower.
Either this is a deliberate junta policy to terrorize the civilian
population and thereby culturally cleanse the Donbass, or the Ukie
forces are extremely poorly trained. Whatever may be the case, there
are plenty of civilians casualties, but the effect of this firepower
on the resistance forces has not been as bad as one could have
feared.
Both
sides have had comparatively losses, though the attackers suffered
much more due to several successful ambushes by the resistance which
drew the attacking forces into "fire sacks" and, basically,
wiped them out.
The
Ukies seems to have tested the resistance by doing what is called in
Russian "reconnaissance by fire" where you engage a force
primarily to gage its response and find its weaker spots. Apparently
no such spots were found (yet).
The
airspace over Novorussia seems to be very well defended and only in
one day the Ukies lost at least one SU-25 close air support and one
SU-24 bomber aircraft. Other sources speak of several more aircraft
hit, including one Mi-24 attack helicopter shot down and one twin
engine aircraft hit, but which managed to fly away.
The
main Ukrainian effort seems to be concentrated in re-taking control
of the border between Novorussia and Russia, but their only success
so far has been the re-taking of an abandoned border post which the
resistance did not even bother defending.
No
other significant gain or change in positions has been reported.
Still,
the humanitarian situation is extremely bad, especially in Slaviansk
which has been viciously shelled and bombed and which has lost all
electrical power as a result of these strikes.
There
are persistent rumors that the junta is about to begin using the
OTR-21 Tochka operational tactical rocket against the resistance.
Maybe. They sure have them, but the problem will be targeting. The
Ukies have no satellites and their aircraft-base reconnaissance
capabilities appear to be minimal. While it is possible that Uncle
Sam will provide them with targeting data, the resistance forces just
do not provide the kind of high-value targets which would justify the
use of such advanced missiles. My prediction is that if the Ukies
engage their OTR-21s it will be for a pure terror attack aimed at
flattening some well-known and therefore mostly empty building.
I
have also noticed somewhat of a change in tone in the western
corporate media. If the EU zombies are, again, threatening Russia
with more (probably totally symbolic) sanctions, the western media
seems to become aware of the plight of the civilian population of the
Donbass.
In
conclusion I will repeat that while the initial reports seem to
indicate that the Ukie offensive is going absolutely nowhere, it is
way too early to rejoice, especially since we have now way of
assessing how close either side is to its breaking point.
The
Saker
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.