In the effort to make sense of what is happening in Ukraine I first present the Saker.
Catastrophic Desertions and Losses in the Ukrainian Army - Official Ukrainian Reports, July 19, 2014
Catastrophic Desertions and Losses in the Ukrainian Army - Official Ukrainian Reports, July 19, 2014
26 July, 2014
Catastrophic Desertions and Losses in the Ukrainian Army - Official Ukrainian Reports, July 19, 2014
Preamble
by Gleb Bazov: It is rare that we report on the workings of the
aggressor across the battle lines. This item is different. Before you
is a translation, kindly prepared by Valentina Lisitsa, of a report
from the head of the Ukrainian Security Service, V.O. Nalyvaichenko,
to the President of Ukraine, P.A. Poroshenko. It is an important
document, which, we hope, you will distribute widely.
No
further commentary is necessary, other than the following brief
quotation. According to V.O. Nalyvaichenko, "2/3 of the active
combat military units currently participating in the ATO will simply
cease to exist in as little as 4 to 5 days" due to mass
desertions and casualties. To provide context for this letter,
provided below is another document recently publicized as an internal
memorandum from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, which details
recent casualties of the Ukrainian army, equally as catastrophic as
its desertion rates
Report
by Head of SBU, V.O. Nalyvaichenko, to the President of Ukraine, P.A.
Poroshenko
Translated
by Valentina Lisitsa
Report by Head of SBU, V.O. Nalyvaichenko, to the President of Ukraine, P.A. Poroshenko
Translated by Valentina Lisitsa
Header
Left:
Security Service of Ukraine.
16, Malopidvalna St.,
Kiev,
01601
Tel:
226-25-64, 256-97-32, July 19 2014,
No. 5/2/2-1331
Header
right:
Absolutely Confidential (Addendum 1)
Personally
to the President of Ukraine, P.A. Poroshenko
Handwritten
Across the Top:
"To continue until Victory!"
Signed
V.O. Nalyvaichenko 20/7 [July 20]
I
am reporting.
In
the period from July 14th to 19th, 2014 we witness a catastrophic
increase (of 3473 people, or 47%) in the number of deserters in the
units of the Army and the National Guard – in comparison with last
week’s numbers (1847 people, 25%).
Apart from that, during the
stated period the number of missing in action had increased as well
(1344 people , 47%, last week – 344 people, 10%).
This
phenomenon is connected to increased activity of the enemy in the
Donetsk and the Lugansk regions as well as to the increase in the
number of casualties in the ranks of the above-mentioned structures.
This fact [negatively] influences the combat-worthiness of the
personnel and makes continuation of the ATO impossible. In the event
the negative trend continues at the same level, I estimate that 2/3
of the active combat military units currently participating in the
ATO will simply cease to exist in as little as 4 to 5 days.
With
the aim of preserving the combat potential of our military
structures, I am proposing that we perform a withdrawal maneuver of
our militarily units to the area around Dobropil'ya and Smolyaninove.
After replenishment of the ammunition stocks, re-grouping as well as
rotation of the personnel by at least 60%, we can continue the
offensive.
Signed,
The
Head of the Ukrainian Security Service of Ukraine,
V.
Nalyvaichenko
Agreed,
The
head of the Antiterrorist Centre of the Security Service,
B.
Hrytsak
Official Ukrainian Military Report of Losses for July 9-15, 2014(Arsen Avakov, Minister of Interior and V. Gritsak, Head of the ATO)
Translated by Gleb Bazov
...
We admit the possibility that all the fighters have been purged by
the separatists.
In
vide of the concentration of a large number of fighters near the
airport, as well as lack of prospects in conducting an evacuation of
the members of the National Guard from the Donetsk airport, I propose
to withdraw the units of the Ukrainian military to the area of
Avdeevka in order to regroup them for a further attack against the
forces of the separatists.
An
Accounting of the Losses among Ukrainian Military, the Militants and
the Civilians in the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions (for the period
from July 9-15, 2014)
TOTAL
UKRAINIAN LOSSES
Killed
in Action: 1600
Wounded
in Action: 4723
Tanks:
35
Armoured
Battle Vehicles: 96
Artillery:
38
Aircraft:
7
Helicopters:
2
Automobiles:
104
TOTAL
MILITIA LOSSES
Killed
in Action: 48
Wounded
in Action: 64
Tanks:
2
Armoured
Battle Vehicles: 0
Artillery:
5
Automobiles:
8
TOTAL
CIVILIAN LOSSES
Killed:
496
Wounded:
762
Footage
of the vaporized
leftovers of the Ukie 79th
Airborne Brigade
Honestly?
I feel sorry for these guys who probably did not chose to be there.
But I am also extremely relieved that they were stopped and wiped out
as their role was to completely encircle Novorussia and then
mercilessly crush Resistance. Still, as the Russian poet Voloshin
wrote "with all my heart, I pray for these and for the others".
The
Saker
Just a few pointers from the Saker
\
Dear
friends,
I
am dealing with some "back office organizational issues"
which are taking up a lot of my time, so I still cannot write a real
full SITREP today. Hopefully I will do that during the
week-end. Still, I wanted to mention a few interesting things
to you, just short pointers, which I think are important.
1)
We are constantly dealing with propaganda, counter-propaganda and
counter-counter propaganda. And yet, there are a few rock solid
indicators of the overall picture of the war in Novorussia.
You
all heard that Iatseniuk has resigned. But did you know that
the Ukie KGB (called SBU) is investigating
three top military commanders for state treason?
Yup, the blame game for the disaster at the southern cauldron has
begun in Kiev. In fact, if you want to read a detailed
assessment of how bad things are for the Ukies there, and if you read
Russian, just click here (If
you do not read Russian, use your favorite online machine
translator). Keep in mind that this is written by a Ukie who
called the Resistance "terrorists" and compares Russia to
the Nazi occupier of WWII. And yet the image one get's from his
report from the scene is one of a total military disaster.
Guys,
if the Ukie were winning there would not be these resignations, blame
games and reports. All
the signs are the Banderastan is collapsing under the weight of its
own stupidity and blind hatred.
2)
It appears that NATO is freaking out and fears that the Ukies might
be rolled back far to the West. NATO, using its favorite
central European slave colony, is now considering
building an advanced HQ in Poland for
a power-projection into the East, i.e. the Ukraine. I don't
agree with them, nobody is going to invade Banderastan, and for my
reasons consider my next and last pointer today.
3)
Did you notice some potentially major, if not crucial, actor
completely missing from the action in this war? Can you guess
whom I am referring to here?
Where
is the rest of the Ukraine, especially East of the Dniepr?
What is happening in the Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhie,
Nikolaev, Kherson and Odessa regions? What about the Poltava,
Chernigov and even Kiev regions? That's right - nothing. No
local insurgency, no guerrilla, no civil disobedience, no protests,
no sabotage, *no nothing*. How come? Well, of course,
this is largely due to a very effective terror campaign, especially
in Kharkov and Odessa. In both cities a full-scale terror
campaign his had hundreds of people jailed, kidnapped, 'disappeard',
tortured, threatened and murdered. But so what? Does
anybody really think that Kolomoiskii's death squads are more
ruthless or more effective than the Nazi death squads in WWII?
And yet during the entire Nazi occupation there was a constant and
very effective partisan movement in all of the Ukraine which
inflicted *huge* damages on the German military. So far, the
only acts of sabotage I know of are the couple of blowing ups of the
gas pipeline from Russia to the EU and that was most likely done by
the Right Sector. So the fact is here: most
of the Eastern Ukraine is not joining
the Donetsk and Luganks insurrections.
What that means in practical terms is that given the choice between
resisting the Nazi junta and joining the Resistance or hoping to
survive in Banderastan, most of the Eastern Ukraine chose the
latter. That, in turn, severely limits the scope of a possible
rollback of Ukie forces. If Russia does not believe that at
this point in time a military intervention in Donetsk/Luganks is
needed (and facts on the ground seem to support that) and that covert
aid is enough (and, again, the facts on the ground seem to support
that), then you can be darn sure that Putin is not sending the
Russian tanks to Lvov, or even Kiev. As for the Novorussian
leaders, they can continue to write "to Kiev" on their
tanks, but this is not happening without Russian military
support.
Of
course, with the Ukie economy now clearly crashing (officially,
the money will run out on August 1st!), there are bound to be
protests and even insurrections in the rest of Banderastan soon.
But I personally would not advise anybody in Russia or Donetsk to
conflate the national
liberation movements of
Novorussia with the economic
discontent generated
by the crisis in the rest of the Ukraine. I am sorry to have to
say this, but if appears that if the Nazi junta in Kiev had the wits
to create some kind of economic miracle, then most of the Ukraine
would not object to living in a Russia-hating Nazi state. That
is a disgrace for these people of course, but it is also a sad
reality-check for Russia: while most Ukrainian do probably not like
the Nazi junta very much, they don't care about Russia, they just
care about their economic well-being. Given enough money, they
would turn away and do nothing while the Nazi death-squads would
terrorize and murder those who have still kept a Russian identity.
Novorussia, if it happens, will probably not be much bigger than the
Luganks-Donetsk regions.
Thats'
it from me for right now. I need to go tackle a huge amount of
work (in virtual space and in meat space). I will be back
online later this evening.
Kind
regards,
The
Saker
I am dealing with some "back office organizational issues" which are taking up a lot of my time, so I still cannot write a real full SITREP today. Hopefully I will do that during the week-end. Still, I wanted to mention a few interesting things to you, just short pointers, which I think are important.
1) We are constantly dealing with propaganda, counter-propaganda and counter-counter propaganda. And yet, there are a few rock solid indicators of the overall picture of the war in Novorussia.
You all heard that Iatseniuk has resigned. But did you know that the Ukie KGB (called SBU) is investigating three top military commanders for state treason? Yup, the blame game for the disaster at the southern cauldron has begun in Kiev. In fact, if you want to read a detailed assessment of how bad things are for the Ukies there, and if you read Russian, just click here (If you do not read Russian, use your favorite online machine translator). Keep in mind that this is written by a Ukie who called the Resistance "terrorists" and compares Russia to the Nazi occupier of WWII. And yet the image one get's from his report from the scene is one of a total military disaster.
Guys, if the Ukie were winning there would not be these resignations, blame games and reports. All the signs are the Banderastan is collapsing under the weight of its own stupidity and blind hatred.
2) It appears that NATO is freaking out and fears that the Ukies might be rolled back far to the West. NATO, using its favorite central European slave colony, is now considering building an advanced HQ in Poland for a power-projection into the East, i.e. the Ukraine. I don't agree with them, nobody is going to invade Banderastan, and for my reasons consider my next and last pointer today.
3) Did you notice some potentially major, if not crucial, actor completely missing from the action in this war? Can you guess whom I am referring to here?
Where is the rest of the Ukraine, especially East of the Dniepr? What is happening in the Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhie, Nikolaev, Kherson and Odessa regions? What about the Poltava, Chernigov and even Kiev regions? That's right - nothing. No local insurgency, no guerrilla, no civil disobedience, no protests, no sabotage, *no nothing*. How come? Well, of course, this is largely due to a very effective terror campaign, especially in Kharkov and Odessa. In both cities a full-scale terror campaign his had hundreds of people jailed, kidnapped, 'disappeard', tortured, threatened and murdered. But so what? Does anybody really think that Kolomoiskii's death squads are more ruthless or more effective than the Nazi death squads in WWII? And yet during the entire Nazi occupation there was a constant and very effective partisan movement in all of the Ukraine which inflicted *huge* damages on the German military. So far, the only acts of sabotage I know of are the couple of blowing ups of the gas pipeline from Russia to the EU and that was most likely done by the Right Sector. So the fact is here: most of the Eastern Ukraine is not joining the Donetsk and Luganks insurrections. What that means in practical terms is that given the choice between resisting the Nazi junta and joining the Resistance or hoping to survive in Banderastan, most of the Eastern Ukraine chose the latter. That, in turn, severely limits the scope of a possible rollback of Ukie forces. If Russia does not believe that at this point in time a military intervention in Donetsk/Luganks is needed (and facts on the ground seem to support that) and that covert aid is enough (and, again, the facts on the ground seem to support that), then you can be darn sure that Putin is not sending the Russian tanks to Lvov, or even Kiev. As for the Novorussian leaders, they can continue to write "to Kiev" on their tanks, but this is not happening without Russian military support.
Of course, with the Ukie economy now clearly crashing (officially, the money will run out on August 1st!), there are bound to be protests and even insurrections in the rest of Banderastan soon. But I personally would not advise anybody in Russia or Donetsk to conflate the national liberation movements of Novorussia with the economic discontent generated by the crisis in the rest of the Ukraine. I am sorry to have to say this, but if appears that if the Nazi junta in Kiev had the wits to create some kind of economic miracle, then most of the Ukraine would not object to living in a Russia-hating Nazi state. That is a disgrace for these people of course, but it is also a sad reality-check for Russia: while most Ukrainian do probably not like the Nazi junta very much, they don't care about Russia, they just care about their economic well-being. Given enough money, they would turn away and do nothing while the Nazi death-squads would terrorize and murder those who have still kept a Russian identity. Novorussia, if it happens, will probably not be much bigger than the Luganks-Donetsk regions.
Thats' it from me for right now. I need to go tackle a huge amount of work (in virtual space and in meat space). I will be back online later this evening.
Kind regards,
The Saker
And a few more pointers from the Saker
Well,
I am still running around, but while in the car I watched some rather
interesting shows on Russian TV including one called "Politics
with Peter Tolstoi" who had a bunch of interesting guests
talking about the issue of MH17 shot down over Novorussia. Here
again, I got very little time, are some bullet-points of some of what
they said:
1) MH17 was most likely not shot down by a Buk but by an R-60M air-to-air missile shot from a Ukie Su-25 which has a non-pressurized cockpit (being a close air support aircraft) but whose engines can easily bring him that high up and whose pilot can breathe oxygen through a mask. At such altitudes, however, the Su-25 is rather slow, but that lack of speed is easily compensated by the speed of the R-60M air-to-air missile whose ideal engagement distant is 3-5km which is *exactly* how far the Su-25 was from MH17. The main evidence that it was an R-60M missile which hit MH17 is in the radar signal which shows that the aircraft was not ripped into shreds as would be the case with the massive warhead of the Buk SAM, and the fact that even on the ground the body of the plane does not appear to be shredded the way a Buk warhead would.
2) The reason why the Ukie SBU immediately seized the recording of the conversations between the Kiev ATC and MH17 is because the so-called "black boxes" ended up in Resistance hands. The reason why Holland agreed to have the British "decode" these recorders was because they were told so by the USA. The Brits will now let the NSA falsify the data and that falsification will be coordinated with the SBU in Kiev which will eventually release the recordings who will, surprise surprise, full "confirm" the "authenticity" of the NSA-doctored recordings from the UK. Formally, it will be the Dutch which will announce it all in order to better hide the US/UK role in all this.
3) Besides the Russians and the Americans, the Europeans also know what happened (I can personally confirm that I know for a fact that several European countries have their own monitoring systems which observe everything West of the Urals. The Saker)
4) Several guests said that they believed that since the MH17 false flag is turning into a flop, the next step will be to blow up a Ukie nuclear plant and blame Russia.
5) Banderastan has apparently signed 8 agreements with NATO to hold joint exercises in the Ukraine. Most of them are scheduled for September 1st, the date at which Poroshenko has promised to be finished with the repression of the Donbass.
6) One guest declared that he has it from a very solid source in the USA that MH17 was planned by the USA and that the Ukies botched the execution. The plan was for the aircraft to fall into the Rostov region of Russia.
7) One idea which was floated around again is this: to declare that unless the atrocities in the Donbass stop, Russia will recognize the Donetsk and Lugansk Republics. The idea here is to say that IF these republics are recognized, then Russia could then do the same as in Abkhazia and South Ossetia i.e., send in as many military forces as needed to stop the aggression. In terms of international law, this would not be the same as breaching the borders of the Ukraine. Besides, it would mean to exactly the same for Novorussia as the US/NATO are officially doing for the Wahabi insurgency in Syria or what the US did in Kosovo.
8) There was a consensus amongst the guests that future sanctions against Russia are absolutely inevitable simply because the USA is dead set on this idea. However, the Russians are also sure that these sanction won't bite much and that as long as Russia does not give the US a reason for force the EU to cut itself off the Russian energy supply no real sanctions will be applied.
9) All the guests agreed that Russian should continue to provide covert military and over political aid to Novorussia.
In other news tonight, Russian sources are reporting at least two major defeats for the Ukie forces including one near the town of Georgievka near the Lugansk Airport (still held by the Ukies, but surrounded) were the Ukies lost 30 soliders and several armored vehicles. The Ukie death squad "Donbass" (which is the past had already been completely wiped out twice) is again surrounded near Donetsk.
That's it Just wanted to update you. Now I got to hit the road again.
See you all later.
The Saker
1) MH17 was most likely not shot down by a Buk but by an R-60M air-to-air missile shot from a Ukie Su-25 which has a non-pressurized cockpit (being a close air support aircraft) but whose engines can easily bring him that high up and whose pilot can breathe oxygen through a mask. At such altitudes, however, the Su-25 is rather slow, but that lack of speed is easily compensated by the speed of the R-60M air-to-air missile whose ideal engagement distant is 3-5km which is *exactly* how far the Su-25 was from MH17. The main evidence that it was an R-60M missile which hit MH17 is in the radar signal which shows that the aircraft was not ripped into shreds as would be the case with the massive warhead of the Buk SAM, and the fact that even on the ground the body of the plane does not appear to be shredded the way a Buk warhead would.
2) The reason why the Ukie SBU immediately seized the recording of the conversations between the Kiev ATC and MH17 is because the so-called "black boxes" ended up in Resistance hands. The reason why Holland agreed to have the British "decode" these recorders was because they were told so by the USA. The Brits will now let the NSA falsify the data and that falsification will be coordinated with the SBU in Kiev which will eventually release the recordings who will, surprise surprise, full "confirm" the "authenticity" of the NSA-doctored recordings from the UK. Formally, it will be the Dutch which will announce it all in order to better hide the US/UK role in all this.
3) Besides the Russians and the Americans, the Europeans also know what happened (I can personally confirm that I know for a fact that several European countries have their own monitoring systems which observe everything West of the Urals. The Saker)
4) Several guests said that they believed that since the MH17 false flag is turning into a flop, the next step will be to blow up a Ukie nuclear plant and blame Russia.
5) Banderastan has apparently signed 8 agreements with NATO to hold joint exercises in the Ukraine. Most of them are scheduled for September 1st, the date at which Poroshenko has promised to be finished with the repression of the Donbass.
6) One guest declared that he has it from a very solid source in the USA that MH17 was planned by the USA and that the Ukies botched the execution. The plan was for the aircraft to fall into the Rostov region of Russia.
7) One idea which was floated around again is this: to declare that unless the atrocities in the Donbass stop, Russia will recognize the Donetsk and Lugansk Republics. The idea here is to say that IF these republics are recognized, then Russia could then do the same as in Abkhazia and South Ossetia i.e., send in as many military forces as needed to stop the aggression. In terms of international law, this would not be the same as breaching the borders of the Ukraine. Besides, it would mean to exactly the same for Novorussia as the US/NATO are officially doing for the Wahabi insurgency in Syria or what the US did in Kosovo.
8) There was a consensus amongst the guests that future sanctions against Russia are absolutely inevitable simply because the USA is dead set on this idea. However, the Russians are also sure that these sanction won't bite much and that as long as Russia does not give the US a reason for force the EU to cut itself off the Russian energy supply no real sanctions will be applied.
9) All the guests agreed that Russian should continue to provide covert military and over political aid to Novorussia.
In other news tonight, Russian sources are reporting at least two major defeats for the Ukie forces including one near the town of Georgievka near the Lugansk Airport (still held by the Ukies, but surrounded) were the Ukies lost 30 soliders and several armored vehicles. The Ukie death squad "Donbass" (which is the past had already been completely wiped out twice) is again surrounded near Donetsk.
That's it Just wanted to update you. Now I got to hit the road again.
See you all later.
The Saker
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