Pages

Sunday, 6 July 2014

The Fall of Slavyansk

I am still absorbing this news - so I am relaying it, along with initial commentary from some of the people I have come to trust.

Donetsk militia confirm leaving stronghold cities of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk
The self-defense forces of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) have left the cities of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk and are heading to the south of the region, according to the republic’s headquarters.

RT,

5 June, 2014

A column of DNR militia arrived from Slavyansk - which had been surrounded by the Kiev military - to Kramatorsk on Saturday night. However, the self-defense forces later left Kramatorsk as well and are now heading towards areas in the Donetsk region – such as the city of Gorlovka - which remain under militia control.

Kramatorsk was difficult to defend because of its poor location. That’s why the Command decided to leave the city,” a representative of the DPR headquarters told RIA Novosti agency.
However, the source stated, small self-defense groups remain both in Slavyansk and Kramatorsk ready to fight with the Kiev forces.

BREAKING: government armoured now rolling into , according to @Ruptly stringer on the ground.


Meanwhile, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk has announced that the military operation on “liberating Slavyansk and Kramatorsk from terrorists” has been accomplished, the government press-service reported on Saturday.

The country’s President Petro Poroshenko called the “liberation of Slavyansk” symbolic.
It’s not a complete victory yet. But the clearing of Slavyansk from an armed to teeth gang of bigots has a huge symbolic meaning,” he said Saturday commenting on the issue, his official website reports. According to Poroshenko, it is a turning point “in the fight with terrorists for the territorial integrity of Ukraine” and for “the return to normal life” in the Donetsk region.
Poroshenko ordered authorities to provide humanitarian aid to residents of Slavyansk and other areas “liberated from militants”. He also promised that works to resume water and energy supply will start in the nearest future.
So far though, the military operation seems to have brought local residents only grief and devastation.
You think you won? That was a tactical retreat. We will enter Slavyansk again, with victory,” Denis Pushilin, one of the DPR leaders twitted.
Slavyansk residents say government forces are checking locals’ IDs and detaining all suspicions individuals.
As Russian Channel One reported earlier, the self-defense forces have been forced to leave Slavyansk after a “massive shelling” of the city following which armored vehicles entered the area and street fighting began. That’s when the self-defense forces took the decision to leave the city, the channel said.
Despite the massive shooting, the fighters stormed out of the city and headed for neighboring Kramatorsk. Part of their hardware was shot down in the process,” the channel said.
Aftermath of an artillery attack by the Ukrainian army on the Artyom district in Slavyansk. (RIA Novosti / Andrey Stenin)
Aftermath of an artillery attack by the Ukrainian army on the Artyom district in Slavyansk. (RIA Novosti / Andrey Stenin)



Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko ordered the military to raise the Ukrainian flag over Slavyansk, his press service said.

The head of General Headquarters Viktor Muzhenko has reported to Ukraine’s president, Petro Poroshenko, about the fact that overnight, while the self-defense groups were trying to escape Slavyansk they came under mortar fire from the Ukrainian military. As a result, one armored vehicle, two infantry fighting vehicles and two airborne combat vehicles belonging to the [self-defense] fighters have been shot down,” the press service also said.





IMAGE: flag raised in after Donetsk militia left city for http://on.rt.com/u1de3a 

Hours later as self-defense troops left their second stronghold as well, the Ukrainian flag was raised over the Kramatorsk administration building, which was used as the DPR headquarters.
In the early afternoon all the DNR soldiers came to Kramatorsk from Slavyansk. They all massed in the Lenin square and around the center,” American photographer Patrick Lancaster told RT by phone adding that two hours later the self defense forces left the city.
Preparing to leave the city, the self-defense fighters distributed food and water supplies from DNR amongst the local population, Lancaster says, adding that they had also taken down DNR posters and insignia, that included the flag of the self proclaimed republic.
When the Ukrainian army entered the main square, there were around two tanks, two APCs, and 15-20 foot soldiers, some of them snipers and some carrying rocket-propelled grenades,” Lancaster recalls.
They went on to fly the Ukrainian bi-color flag on the roof of the former DNR headquarters. After parading the flag around, “they jumped back on their tanks, and left,” Lancaster says.
Further to the south, in the capital of the region Donetsk, eyewitnesses say they spotted a lot of DPR’s military hardware and “suntanned and bearded men with tattoos,” RIA Novosti quotes.
The Donetsk authorities said earlier they did not have any confirmation that the self-defense forces were moving toward the city, Mayor Aleksandr Lukyanchenko’s website said.
Earlier, one of the leaders of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Pavel Gubarev, said the Slavyansk militia would probably relocate to Donetsk and the surrounding area.
After the militia were forced to leave their positions in the northern part of the front, they moved to reserve positions that had been prepared in advance, Itar-Tass news agency reported, citing Prime Minister of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Aleksandr Boroday, as saying.
Our troops have consolidated at the reserve lines of defense, in an organized way and having kept their weaponry. We were prepared for this option, as we have to face tens of thousands of Kiev's military men and hundreds of armored weaponry units – which means almost all the battle-ready Ukrainian army,”Boroday said.
"Taking into account the ‘scorched earth’ tactics employed by Kiev's punitive forces, and the strategy of genocide toward the Donbass population, we declare that every hour of military action claims civilians’ lives,” Boroday said.
In connection with this, he appealed to the international community, calling on them to “influence the Ukrainian authorities and stop the killings of civilian
Resident of a building destroyed by an artillery bombardment of Slavyansk by Ukrainian servicemen. (RIA Novosti / Andrey Stenin)
Resident of a building destroyed by an artillery bombardment of Slavyansk by Ukrainian servicemen. (RIA Novosti / Andrey Stenin)


Loud explosions were heard in the area of the Donetsk airport, and gunfire is going on there, local residents told RIA-Novosti news agency. Also, two fighter jets were spotted carrying out strikes on unidentified targets in the area where the airport is situated.
We are asking the people living near the airport not to leave their apartments, to stay away from their windows and not to go outside except in case of urgent necessity,” the website of the Donetsk mayor’s office said in a warning.
The Russian Foreign Ministry announced Saturday that Moscow is halting the process of delivering weapons, Ukrainian military forces' equipment and funds from the territory of Crimea to Kiev authorities due to their military actions in the east, which have resulted in the “deaths of civilians, including children, and civilian infrastructure in Donetsk and Lugansk regions being destroyed.”
The decision will be valid until a full ceasefire in the east of Ukraine by the country’s military and until a peaceful solution is reached,” Russia’s Foreign Ministry said.
Kiev to detect ‘traitors’ among police in Donetsk region


Ukrainian Interior Ministry has announced it is going to launch an investigation against “every policeman” in Slavyansk to find out whether they cooperated with the self-defense forces.
Such line-of-duty checks will define if “an employee of Slavyansk police cooperated with separatists or maintained loyalty to the Ukrainian people,” Deputy Interior Minister Sergey Yarovoy said, as cited by Ukrainian media.
Police in the Donetsk region will be reformed - starting from the cities of Donetsk and Lugansk “due to necessity” - said Interior Minister Arsen Avakov. And for now, law enforcers from other Ukrainian regions will be sent to work in the area.
Policemen from the entire country will be working there, including those who got though the filter of fighting during the anti-terrorist operation – in other words guys who were not afraid,” he told journalists, as sited by segodnya.ua news portal.
All the policemen who violated their oaths and left their guard posts in Donetsk and Lugansk region have been fired, Avakov said. He added that in some cases, “these people were arrested”.



I follow this with commentary from Mark Sleboda, Vladimir Suchan, the Saker and others who have their fingers on the pulse.




There's been no statement about the situation in the Ukraine from the Kremlin or from the Russian Foreign Ministry or from any official of the government all day. There's no indication that they have even been in touch with the western powers. The whole government is in lock down as they decide what to do. It reminds me of the silence that followed the February coup and which was only fully broken by Putin's press conference on 4th March 2014. As I have said elsewhere what is probably of most concern to the Kremlin is not the fall of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk but the fact that its diplomatic strategy is exhausted with the failure of the tripartite negotiations to commence today despite the agreement to start them which was made on Wednesday.


Knut Strømfors:

"The irritating thing is that 3 months ago the Kiev junta had 5000 man in a disorganized army. Now they have 60 000. It is better to fight the monster in its infancy rather than having to fight it when it has mutated and got hundreds of offspring."


True. And these 60,000 and growing are no longer disorganized, but combat-trained so at the end of the summer there is a prospect to see at this pace at least a 100,000 army driven by combat fury, hate for Russia, and fascist nationalism.

Those who helped blocked Russia's effective action with the mirage of World War III when the danger was many times smaller than it is now (neutralizing a 5,000 force), will have a chance to reuse the argument for the chances of a world war and NATO's direct involvement do rise with the stakes and the rapid rise of the power of the Ukrainian army. Risking a world war for several thousands of militants led by the RIght Sector on behalf of a coup d'etat is one thing. Risking a world war when you have suddenly 40 million people harnessed to a fascist dictatorship with a whole modern army of 100,000-500,000 on the move and Moscow only 400 miles away is a whole new game. Moreover, if this happens against the backdrop of a moral and political crisis and disorientation.

It is only a matter of time till the Ukrainian government, as Moscow also calls it, will issue its new "ultimatum"--not just to the Donetsk insurgents or "terrorists," as they call them--but to Russia over Crimea. And we already know that, once Kiev does that, it will have the US and whole NATO lined up behind them with "strategic destabilization" in Russia, the Caucuses, and Central Asia in full swing.

Russia's strategy from the late 1980s has been to trade nearly all its allies--for concessions and partnership. For its own progressive concessions. One major exception to this rule has been China.

The Roman Empire started falling apart when it exhausted its expansion and, with it, new sources to plunder. In this regard, the resources of Russia are enough to give the Empire a new lease on life for hundreds of years.






Mark Sleboda

What the Kremlin's inaction over the Ukraine means for Russia's geopolitics, international relations, and the Eurasian Union:

All moral and national security issues aside for a moment, the precedent that Russia's inaction is setting in the Ukraine in terms of both geopolitics and foreign policy alone is crippling. The surrender of Ukraine to the West by Russia inevitably means exactly that the US achieves its primary goal - the end of the Eurasian Union project and the Russian/Eurasian civilizational space.

Russia has now set the precedent that it does not have the right, ability, or political will to act or intervene in the post Soviet space when facing serious Western opposition. Further it has set the precedent that the US and EU DO have both the right and ability to act to the point of orchestrating regime change, civil war, and the complete domestic political reordering and geopolitical reorientation of a country in what was once considered Russia's "near abroad" and that Russia lacks the ability and/or political will to counter or resist this in any way. It will grumble but just accept the new status quo to preserve "peace" and a conception of "business as usual". That is to say, appeasement.

The lessons that the governments and peoples of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Azerbaijan will invariably take away from Russia's inaction in the Ukraine are:

(1) that they can neither trust nor rely on Russia to support or defend them when the West comes for them, as it inevitably will, whether with unconventional warfare/color revolutions or with direct military action and

(2) the complete impunity with which the new Kiev regime is not only massacring people who are calling directly on Russia for succor but has also shelled Russian territory, borderposts, homes, and citizens no less than 9 times in 3 weeks tells the former Soviet space that they need neither respect nor fear us, as we have no respect or political will even to defend ourselves, whether out of fear of Western ostracism, economic dependability, or fear of using our own military force in earnest to defend our interests when faced with serious opposition by the West. Respect, loyalty, and fear are important and essential aspects of Russian and Eurasian socio-cultural values and conceptions of leadership and hierarchy throughout history. Without them, there is no leadership and the center cannot hold.

I was going though his out loud with my wife just earlier today, and when we arrived home she coincidentally stumbled across prominent Armenian political bloggers despairingly mocking and deriding the Kremlin's paralysis in near those same terms, confirming my fears.

If Putin's inaction in the face of what is happening in the Ukraine continue much longer it will not only mean the loss of Ukraine to the West, but in the long-term the suicide of Putin's own plans for a re-consolidation of even the core of the post-Soviet space particularly in the form of the Eurasian Union, as well as the end of dreams of a wider Eurasian civilization or "Russian world". The US will have achieved its primary goal in all of this, Russia's geopolitical horizons will shrink further to its own borders (or not even that), and it will in truth fade and diminish itself to the role and form of just another "normal nation-state" as fifth columnists like Dmitri Trenin at Carnegie speak of so longingly. "The end of Eurasia" as he once put it, in truth...


Peter Lavelle

"“Not one step back” or Kiev overreaching and becoming the occupier? The resistance’s loss of Slavyansk was inevitable, but still a painful moment for those fighting the western-placed and backed regime in Kiev. However, the cause is far from over. Modern Ukraine has always been divided and those divisions are now drenched in blood and part of the historical record. The Kiev regime is now an occupier in the east in every sense. This does not bode well for the “Chocolate” oligarch and “Ms Cookies” Nuland. Yes, territory has been lost, but Kiev and Washington have also lost the battle for hearts and minds. As unpopular as my position is, I still maintain a “long view” of the Ukraine crisis. Russian military intervention would make Moscow into an international pariah – the Washington Consensus would see to that. Russia must at full speed continue its domestic modernization to resist Washington’s hegemony. Ukraine, on the other hand, faces a bleak future. Kiev’s mobocracy is unstable. Poroshenko’s ability to rule is in doubt. The Ukrainian economy is crashing and winter is coming. Without energy from Russia – paid for upfront – Ukraine is set to descend into chaos. Soon Russia will, out of normal and calculated self-interest, completely recalibrate its economic ties with Ukraine – the Kiev regime will pay a heavy price for what is called it’s “civilizational choice.”


I will repeat what I have written before: Washington and Brussels created the Ukraine crisis and Russia is not obliged to fix and pay for Ukraine. The beginning of this crisis has ended, there are many more parts ahead……" ~


THE SAKER ON THE FALL OF 

SLAVYANSK


Alexander Mercouris

I have criticised the Saker recently but his latest piece echoes my sentiments exactly. Whatever the military significance or lack of it of Slavyansk's fall politically a line has now been crossed.


In addition it seems clear to me that the diplomacy has gone as far as it can go. On Wednesday Russia, the Europeans and Poroshenko's foreign minister agreed on an unconditional ceasefire and a convening of talks on 5th July 2014. Following a round of talks Poroshenko had with Biden, Ashton and Hague that simply didn't happen. Merkel told Poroshenko on Friday that he must abide by the Wednesday Berlin Statement but he continues to ignore it Since it seems Merkel is not prepared to translate her promises to impose a ceasefire into action the Russians can now validly tell their allies and their own public that they did all it was in their power to do to seek a peaceful solution but they failed and that they are now under a duty to act under Article 51. This comment by an expert on VoR (written before the fall of Slavyansk) makes essentially the same point.


If Russia fails to act now then it seems to me that those who say that Russia has abandoned the resistance will have been vindicated. Either way the decision must be made within hours.


The Fall of Slaviansk, its 

meaning and implications


Military analysis:

5 July, 2014

So today Slaviansk has finally fallen to the Nazis. Those of us with a military background all understood that this was pretty much inevitable and, obviously, so did the leaders of the Novorussian resistance. The fact that it took so long for the entire Ukie army to take that small town really says a lot about the amazing courage of its defenders and/or about the no less amazing incompetence (or lack of motivation) of the attackers. It appears that what happened is that Strelkov took the (wise) decision to abandon the town and to only leave a very small covering force to protect his retreating units. This plan apparently went well, the defenders broke through the Ukie lines with no losses and they are now heading towards the city of Gorlovka (as defending Kramatorsk and Konstantinovka makes no sense at this point). The military purpose of Slaviansk was to concentrate the Ukie death squads around itself to allow for the preparation of the real line of defense along the Donetsk-Gorlovka-Lugansk axis. The battle for Slaviansk achieved this purpose.

In purely military terms, the above is pretty much all which can be said about this event. But war is not a purely military phenomenon. In reality, wars are always deeply political, and politics is a multi-dimensional realm in which purely military factors are always secondary to much more important ones such as symbolism.

Political dimension

In political terms, the fall of Slaviansk is a disaster for Novorussia and even Russia.

If Slaviank had been taken weeks ago after a couple of days of fighting, it would have been a no big deal loss. But Slaviansk resisted for weeks and in the course of these weeks it became a symbol of resistance. Now that it has fallen, however, Slaviansk has become the symbol of Russian inaction. Purely military arguments simply don't matter here and perceptions become everything. And the perception is clearly that Putin failed to deliver on his promise to protect Novorussia and that the defenders of Slaviansk fought and died in vain. Furthermore, now that Slaviansk, Kramatorsk and Konstantinovka have fallen (or are in the process of being overrun by the Ukies), there is no way to avoid the worst kind of combats: Donetsk, Gorlovka and Lugansk are next.

Furthermore, what matters here is not only that Slaviansk has fallen, but why and how it has fallen. Slaviansk has fallen because Russia did absolutely nothing or, at least, nothing adequate, to prevent it from falling. As for how it fell, it fell in a bloodbath of murdered civilians: the Ukies essentially used only artillery to basically flatten the town. In other words, Russia let a mass murder of civilians go not only unpunished, but even unchallenged. One could argue that Russia had no obligation to take any action. This would be true if Putin had not officially promised not to allow such an event to take place. But he did commit himself and, through him, all of Russia, to extend a protection to the people of Novorussia.

Today, this promise appears to have been just words.

Consequences for Putin

The consequences for Putin of this situation are now becoming very serious because not only has the lack of Russian proactive measures terribly disappointed the Novorussian people, but it is now also beginning to alienate more and more people inside Russia including Putin's core base of support. As I have written many times, the rage in Russia about the actions of the Nazi junta is huge and becoming stronger every day. The risk for Putin is that this rage might eventually become directed at him personally.

Does that mean that Putin has to send in the tanks ASAP?

No, but at the very least, Russian officials should stop their never-ending flow of appeasing statements and also express that popular rage. Today, the Russian TV channels have announced that Russia is "suspending" the return of Ukie military hardware from Crimea to the junta. If that is their idea of a sign of rage, then they PR folks in the Kremlin should be immediately fired. Not only is it both lame and crazy to hand back even one old and broken AK to an illegal Nazi regime in Kiev (remember, symbolic actions matter), but the notion that stopping this shameful handover is an adequate reaction to the events in the Donbass is simply delusional.

The great disconnect

There is something really weird happening in Russia right now. While it is true that most Russians probably would not support an overt and full-scale Russian intervention in the Donbass, the Russia media is constantly barraging the public with reports about Ukrainian atrocities and about the Novorussian resistance. Representatives of the resistance, including top-level political figures like Tsarev, get to speak on the main Russian TV news and talk shows no less than once a week and with the exception of a few confused and isolated "liberals", almost every single guest on these shows advocates some kind of retaliatory measure against the junta. For example, it is my honest impression that a strong majority of Russian intellectuals and analysts favor a massive humanitarian, technical and financial support campaign for Novorussia. I would also say that most of them feel that Russia has to send enough military aid to allow the Novorussians to defend themselves. Again, with the exception of a few completely discredited (and openly ridiculed) pro-US "liberal", everybody shows a total contempt for, and condemnation of, Poroshenko and the Nazi junta in Kiev. The best and kindest thing you hear about Poroshenko is that he does not matter, that he is only a spokesman for the US, that the real ruler of Kiev is the US Ambassador and that Poroshenko has no real power at all. Most think of him as a Nazi war criminal.

So there you have it. The people who for years have formed the power base of Putin openly call the Kiev regime a Nazi junta while the Kremlin makes one appeasing statement after another, interspersed here and there with lame protests which everybody simply ignores.

This cannot continue for much longer.

If the Russian betrayal of Iran and Libya could be legitimately blamed on Medvedev and his "Atlantic Integrationists", a now possible collapse of Novorussia will be blamed directly on Putin, and I would argue fairly so.

Now Russia cannot retreat a single centimeter further

That's it. The conflict has now reached a critical phase. If in purely military terms the fall of Slavianks and Kramatorsk are really no big deal, the fall of Donetsk or Lugansk would mean the end of the entire Novorussian project. In simple terms, that would mean a NATO controlled russophobic Nazi regime right across the Russian border. True, Banderastan is not viable and objective economic and now social factors (tens of thousands of heavily armed Nazis roaming across the country, for one thing) will inevitably result in an explosive collapse, but until that happens Lugansks and Donetsk must be held at all cost, including, if that is what it takes, a full-scale ground operation of the Russian armed forces.

Оn July 28, 1942 Stalin issued his famous Order 227 which contained the key sentence "ни шагу назад" or "not a single step backwards". This order included the following words in which I have just substituted the words "Soviet" and "Red" with "Russian" and "German" with "AngloZionist":

The enemy throws new forces to the front without regard to heavy losses and penetrates deep into Russia, seizing new regions, destroying our cities and villages, and violating, plundering and killing the Russian population. (...) The population of our country, who love and respect the Russian Army, start to be discouraged in her, and lose faith in the Russian Army, and many curse the Russian Army for leaving our people under the yoke of the AngloZionist oppressors, and itself running east. Some stupid people at the front calm themselves with talk that we can retreat further to the east, as we have a lot of territory, a lot of ground, a lot of population and that there will always be much bread for us. They want to justify the infamous behavior at the front. But such talk is falsehood, helpful only to our enemies. Each commander, Russian Army soldier and political commissar should understand that our means are not limitless. The territory of the Russian state is not a desert, but people - workers, peasants, intelligentsia, our fathers, mothers, wives, brothers, children. (...) Therefore it is necessary to eliminate talk that we have the capability endlessly to retreat, that we have a lot of territory, that our country is great and rich, that there is a large population, and that bread always will be abundant. Such talk is false and parasitic, it weakens us and benefits the enemy (...) This leads to the conclusion, it is time to finish retreating. Not one step back! Such should now be our main slogan. It is necessary to defend each position, each meter of our territory, up to the last drop of blood, to cling for each plot of Russian land and to defend it as long as possible. Our Motherland is experiencing hard days. We must stop, and then to throw back and smash the enemy regardless of cost. The AngloZionists are not so strong, as it seems to the panic-mongers. They strain their last forces. 

To withstand their impact now, means to ensure our victory in some months.
Amazing, no? Prophetic words which I wish we would hear from the Kremlin today. Instead, all I hear from the Kremlin are vapid and lame protests. This cannot continue any further: Russia must react in a determined and effective way.

What exactly that way must be is for Putin and his Security Council to decide. But what is certain is that action must be taken now to clearly and visibly stop the Ukie assault. And if the only way is to bring in the Russian military, then I say "do it!".

The Saker



Does the shelling of the 

Russian border posts really 

matter?


5 July, 2014

For days now the Ukie forces have been regularly shelling Russian border posts "by mistake". So far, I think that only one officer was wounded, but that nobody has been killed. Russian ammo-disposal control specialists have been sent to get rid of the unexploded ordinance, and some border crossings had to be closed, typically for a couple of hours.

Does that matter and should anybody care?

Absolutely. Just like the fall of Slaviansk, the regularity of such "mistaken" shelling of the Russian side of the border is militarily irrelevant, but it is symbolic of the fact that the Ukie chihuahua can bite the Russian bear in total impunity. And what is the point of ignoring these "provocations" when there is an obvious response which nobody could dispute and which would be absolutely legal in terms of international (and Russian) law: fire back to *protect the Russian servicemen and civilians". This is really not that hard at all. Install a few batteries of Uragan MLRS in the right spots, set up a few counter-battery radars, place a few fire controllers along the border and wait for the Ukies to make yet another "mistake". And then turn the offending unit into dust with a single well-placed strike. Finally, announce that you will be doing just that every time the Ukies make that "mistake" again.

Again, that would be absolutely legal in terms of international law, that could not be construed as a Russian "escalation" or "provocation" and it could even serve as a very nice protection to any NDF unit near the Russian border.

Right now, all the Russian passivity is achieving is further exiting the Ukie arrogance and total sense of impunity.

The Saker


A musical requiem (of sorts) for those who died in Slaviansk

Warning: the language of war is not a delicate one, nor is the language used in this song. To those who might be shocked by the kind of "non-normative lexicon" used here by Grebenshchikov, and who clearly have never been anywhere near a Russian military unit, I will say that this is nothing compared to what you could have heard form the defenders of Slaviansk. As for the message of the song - "we have been betrayed" - I am not saying that it is factually correct, only that it is emotionally right. I sure hope that those who died defending Slaviansk did not die in vain.

The Saker

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.