Ukrainian civil war update - 06/20/2014

Ukraine SITREP June 20th, 13:30 UTC/Zulu: Slaviansk encircled

The Vineyard of Saker,

20 June, 2014

Combat SITREP by Juan:

I can not tell all details of our operations in Novorossiya. Operation security is practiced. Our situation is not desperate but is very difficult and fluid. We will win, then we will rebuild what Ukraine has destroyed. We are paying the price of freedom with the blood of our soldiers and civilians. The price is heavy.

1. Strong fighting areas of Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Donetsk City outer areas and Lugansk outer areas. 

2. 100% confirmed reports of detention camps in areas west of Novorossiya. Evacuees going west by train and vehicle are being stopped by units of right sector. Many are taken to these camps. Women and children are interrogated and usually released, some are held for further interrogation. No food or water is provided to the children or women. Men 16 to 50 years are locked in cells and interrogated by right sector and SBU. Evacuees released have all money and valuables taken and often documents, then are released on to roads. Local residents near camps terrified, will not speak or help released evacuees.

3. Tactics of Ukr Army are from Soviet book 1944. Storm of artillery fire including Grad and Hurricane missile salvos followed by mass attacks of tanks and armored vehicles towards the objective. Close air support for Ukes is expensive but sometimes effective. The tactic is to destroy Novorossiya Army by attrition. Ukr Army cares not for their casualties. Their losses in tanks and BTR's are quickly replaced. We have no replacements for our few tanks and BTR's. 

4. Confirmed reports of more Ukr helicopters in white UN colour, some marked 'UN'. 

5. Confirmed reports of aircraft reinforcements and crews sent to Ukr forces from Poland and FRG. Polish crews are confirmed flying combat missions, voices speaking Polish heard on tactical radio.

6. Il 76 shoot down area in Lugansk searched by Novorossiya forces morning after. Ukr forces had secured sight and removed all bodies and documents at night. Novorossiya forces found many Ukr had missed at sight after day came. Many identification documents were Polish, one FRG. Confirmed.

7. Situation in Kramatorsk is critical. No water, little food. Electric in some areas returned last night, then off again. Bombardment continues. Many civilians have run from the city.

8. Ukr Army is slowly surrounding Lugansk city and Donetsk city. Outlying towns and villages are coming under more intense bombardment by arty, air and missile salvos. Civilian areas targeted.

9. Idar Battalion right sector ambushed yesterday and destroyed by Novorossiya forces. Prisoners taken, some vehicles captured. 'Battalion' should be called Rota, not enough men to be battalion. Now should be called 'section'.  

10. Ukr Army moving strong units east to border Novorossiya/Russia.Attempt will be made to stop refugees running to Russia.

11. Confirmed over 100 civilians killed in Mariupol by right sector action under Lyashko early this week. Novorossiya Army casualties unknown. Two sections of right sector ambushed in Mariupol at the close of the operation as they retreated. Wiped out, no mercy.

12. Many thousands of refugees from the fighting have arrived in Rostov area, Russia, some to Krimu. Russia and Russia civilians are helping the refugees. No refugee is hungry, all have some kind of shelter. 

13. Unconfirmed but reliable report of two mass graves found outside Mariupol containing men,  women, two children all stripped and shot, some with hands tied. 

14. Intense bombardment of Slavyansk and outlying areas from Karachun Mountain Ukr forces started 05:30 today. Grad and Hurrican missile salvos with arty. 

15. Unconfirmed report of small bus with evacuees fired on, tyres shot out, burned Kherson Oblast, exact location or destination unknown, casualties unknown. 

16. Red Limahn has been taken again by Novorossiya. Small right sector units are fighting as they retreat. Most civilians not there. 

SITREP by the Saker.

Poroshenko's "peace plan" has been leaked.  This plan contains the following points:

1. Security guarantees for the negotiators
2. Amnesty for those who surrender weapons and did not commit serious crimes
3. Liberation of hostages
4. Creation of a 10km buffer zone between Russia and the Ukraine and withdrawal of illegal armed formations
5. Safe passage through corridor for Russian and Ukrainian mercenaries
6. Disarmament
7. Creation in the Ministry of Internal Affairs for special joint patrols
8. Liberation of the illegally occupied administrative buildings in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions
9. Resumption of the work of the local authorities
10. Resumption of the broadcasting of the central TV and radio programs in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions
11. Decentralization (by the election of local executive committees, defense of the Russian language - the planned amendment of the Constitution)
12. Agreement on the nomination of governors with the representatives of the Donbass (if an agreement is found, a single candidate, in case of disagreement the President will decide)
13. Early local and parliamentary elections
14. A program to create local workplaces

In the meantime it has been confirmed that the city of Slaviansk has now been surrounded by junta forces.

Russian forces have been moved back to the border as a way to "increase security".

Evaluation:

The Poroshenko peace plan is anything but a peace plan.  

Basically, this plans foresees an unconditional surrender of Novorossia.  My personal conclusion is that this peace plans was drafted with the double purpose of declaring that a peace plan was on the table and to make sure that it would not be accepted by the Novorossians.  One could argue that this is just an initial plan and that it could be amended through negotiations.  However, this is also not the case because any serious peace plan would have to begin with an immediate and complete secession of all combat operations whereas Poroshenko only mentions "disarmament" and you can be absolutely certain that this is not a reference to his death squads.  Also, the liberation of the "illegally occupied" buildings means that the Ukie SBU and death squads would regain access to their buildings in the center of the Novorussian cities.  The bottom line is simple: Kiev is still hell-bent on a complete military victory and a total and unconditional surrender of Novorossia.

In the meantime the pressure on Putin to intervene is huge and the recent move of Russian forces to the border could be part of a Kremlin effort to show that "we are doing something".  If so, this is a case of too little too late as both Slaviansk and Kramatorsk are in real danger to be overrun.

While I personally believe that Strelkov has a record of exaggerating in order to get attention, and while it is one thing to encircle a city and quite another to enter it and take control of it, it is undeniable that the Ukies have moved huge forces around Slaviansk and Kramatrosk and that the fall of these cities is now only a matter of time: water, electricity and medicine supplies have been cut, food supplies are probably decreasing (no refrigeration), the sanitation/sewage situation is probably becoming critical (no electricity), and the constant bombing and shelling is creating a massive stress problem which the fighters and civilians cannot endure forever.

Furthermore, if Slaviansk and/or Kramatork fall to the Ukies - with all the atrocities and horrors their death squads will then commit - there will be a violent and very angry backlash at the Kremlin and at Putin personally.  I believe that Putin fully understands that and that therefore a Russian intervention is inevitable.  In purely pragmatic terms, the fall of Slavniask and Kramatorks is nowhere nearly as important as the continual resistance of Donetsk and Luganks, but in symbolic and psychological term this would deal a huge blow to the resistance of the people of Novorossia.

Again, we have a situation in which Poroshenko or, should I say, Poroshenko's puppeteers in Washington, are absolutely determined to achieve either one of the following goals:

1) To extend Banderastan all the way to the Russian border

2) To force Russia to openly intervene militarily in the Donbass

This is a winning strategy because Kiev has the means to achieve at least one of these goals and Putin does not have a third option.  The Kremlin's preferred solution - to have Novorossia successfully resist the Ukie aggression - does not seem to be achievable, at least not if the Kremlin does not take dramatic action to change the dynamic on the ground.

The Saker

June 20th Novorossia News Bulletin by the ANNA news agency

Auslander reports about the refugee assistance program

Vineyard of the Saker,

20 June, 2014

All the women and children evacuated from the fighting areas are doing well, some better than others considering what they have been through.  I can not report much on our efforts to evacuate more women and children from the conflict area to safety. There are too many prying eyes who read this blog for information and pass it on to the Ukies and their allies, read US/EU. I am keeping Saker up to date on the effort. I will not even say where these women and children are coming from nor their routes to safety. Ukraine is actively trying to prevent evacuations and as of late yesterday is making a spirited attempt to close off the Novorossiya/Russia border to prevent anyone from leaving. They will shoot and have shot refugees en route to the borders. 

Donations. Saker and I communicated last evening. At first he thought I was disappointed at the response from our readers on the blog. At this time, 09:30 Sevastopol, 37 people have donated to the refugee fund. Another 22 have expressed interest in donating. What he thought at first was disappointment he now realizes was my shock at the numbers in just the first 24 hours. Donations have come in from all over the world, from Australia to Canada, from Kamchatka to Cape Town SA, from Finland to Argentina.  We had meetings with officials involved in this effort for most of yesterday. We will spend a goodly part of today doing the same. By tonight my time I will have a close idea of how much it will cost for each child or woman for transport and daily living costs. I will inform Saker of this amount and he and I will formulate a policy for the evacuees. It is Saker's call to pass on any information he deems fit.

This effort will be an ongoing process. We will need more donations to support these poor evacuees. I think it will be another month minimum before the situation in Novorossiya is resolved one way or another and possibly more. Please, please, pass the word to everyone you can. Tell your Churches, your civic organizations, your friends, everyone you can. No donation is too small, all are deeply appreciated. As we get up and running I will have an accounting sheet listing all donations and all dispersement. This I will send to Saker and he can provide what information he feels expedient on the blog. 

Situation Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Federal City of Sevastopol. 

Victoria Nuland, US assistant SecState, met on or about 16 June in Odessa with the exiled head of a small part of our Tatars in Crimea, read 5% or less. After our election of 16 March where we (including our Tatars) overwhelmingly voted to return to the Russian Federation and were accepted in to same, roughly 2000 Crimean Tatars left Crimea, most moving to Lviv in west Ukraine. Our population of Crimean Tatars is about 350,000, 10% of the total population of Crimea. You can run the numbers to see the percentage that left. 

Approximately half of those who left were men, some part of the rotating cadre of fighters going to and from Syria to fight the Assad Government. Most of the men have spent the last 3 months in right sector/US/EU training camps in the Lviv area. Nuland ordered them to go to Crimea and start a guerrilla war in Crimea, pure and simple. They will comply with the orders from their paymasters. How many are now in Crimea or will make it through the border of Crimea I don't know. 

 
At the same time the strident propaganda pouring from US/UK/EU saying Crimea must 'return' to Ukraine, the election was illegal, joining the Russian Federation was illegal, we are illegal, has increased dramatically. Apparently none of the bright lights in US/UK/EU has bothered to think of perhaps asking the Crimea population what they think of this. Democracy anyone? Oh, I forgot. As Juan said, in the eyes of US/UK/EU we are Untermenchen. Our thoughts and wishes have no bearing on what those fools want to do. 

What this meeting means is there is a very good possibility of terror acts in Crimea. More innocent people will die. More infrastructure will be destroyed. More turmoil will be started in the RF by Nuland and her minions.   But, Nuland, know this. You may attack us, you may kill many of us as you are doing so well in Novorossiya, but in the end we will win, we will keep our freedom, we will protect our women and children, we will protect our culture and way of life. Yes, you will lose, we will win. We will pay whatever cost necessary to stay FREE. 

And, Nuland, this if for you personally. As Juan so eloquently put it, damn your eyes, damn your soul, damn you to Hell, damn you back to the Hell where Satan spawned you. The blood of all our dead children, all our dead women, all of our dead men, all our dead grandmothers and grandfathers, all our dead soldiers, ALL of that blood is on your hands and your hands only. Damn you. 

Auslander

Broken Lives: 5yo boy dies after 30 head wounds as Kiev shells Slavyansk