May
Likely to Break Global High Temperature Record as El Nino Conditions
Strengthen in Pacific
2
June, 2014
The
human warming-riled monster weather event that is El Nino continued
to advance over the Equatorial Pacific this week. Ocean surface
temperatures throughout the basin from north and east of New Guinea
and along a broad stretch of thousands of miles of ocean climbed.
Sporadic west winds and an overall weakness in the trades extended
the expansion of warm surface waters along the serpentine back of the
El Nino pattern from west-to-east even as a high heat content Kelvin
Wave kept conditions below surface much warmer than normal
Large
and growing regions of 1 to 2 C warmer than normal surface
temperatures expanded in broad, 1,000 + mile stretches near the date
line and ranged out from the west coast of South America. An
impressive region of, very hot, 2-3 C positive anomalies grew through
an ever-larger span from Easter Island to coastal Ecuador and Peru.
Though the above graphic is not granular enough to catch it, daily
anomalies in this hot pool exceeded extremely intense +3.5 to +4 C
readings.
Readings
in the range of +0.5 to +1 C invaded regions north to south, east to
west, joining in an extraordinary zone stretching from the
Philippines to South America, and from Baja to Hawaii to the Solomon
Islands. A separate pool of very hot water north of New Guinea and
near the Philippines is likely to play a further role in El Nino
development throughout this year should weak trades and anomalous
west winds persist. Then, a second and reinforcing pulse of warm
water is predicted to push the entire Equatorial Pacific Basin well
above a +1 C positive anomaly by late Summer through Fall.
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(Sea
surface temperature anomalies in the four key Nino regions all show
continued warming through the end of May. Image source: NOAA.)
The
tightening grip of El Nino is plainly visible with each of the four
key Nino zones showing ongoing temperature increases in what is now a
3-4 month long event. Meanwhile, the key Nino 3.4 zone closed its 4th
straight period above the +0.5 C Nino threshold even as it jumped to
+0.6 C above average this week. Notably, the Nino 1+2 zone off South
America hit a very warm +1.6 C average positive anomaly this week,
showing additional warming from strong late April values.
Together,
these values all show very solid continued progress toward El Nino.
Conditions
in Context: May 2014 Likely Hottest on Record Amidst Ongoing Extreme
Weather
Overall,
Equatorial Pacific ocean surface temperatures continued their
advancement from May 27 to June 2, rising from +0.59 to +0.68 C above
the 1979 to 2000 average throughout the week. Global sea surface
temperatures have remained in an exceptionally hot and likely global
record range between +1 and +1.25 C above 1979 to 2000 averages
throughout the month of May and into early June. These extraordinary
readings likely combined with very high atmospheric values to put May
of 2014 in the range of hottest on record. It is worth noting that,
according to NOAA, April of 2014 was also the hottest in the 134
years since global temperature measurements began.
El
Nino tends to spike atmospheric heat and, when combined with a brutal
human greenhouse gas forcing, greatly increases the likelihood that a
given year will reach new global heat extremes.
For
2014, El Nino and global warming related weather disruptions already
appear to be taking hold with the
Indian Monsoon appearing weak and delayed,
a summer heat dome building over Europe and Western Russia, with
Southeast China experiencing record floods even as northern and
western China and Japan experience record heat. Ongoing droughts and
crop disruptions in Brazil, building heat and drought in Indonesia,
and Australia experiencing two back to back hottest years on record
is also indicative of the screaming global heating that typically
comes when El Nino gives human-caused warming an explosive boost.
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