Ukraine update - 04/30/2014

Ukraine SITREP-update April 30, 16:12 UTC/Zulu: "US/EU Hedgehog scaring techniques"

Vineyard of the Saker,

30 April, 2014

• China has officially strongly criticized any sanctions saying that they would be useless.
• Another six cities of the eastern Ukraine have rebelled.
• Dmitryi Olegovich Rogozin Russian Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Russia and Deputy Prime Minister of Russia in charge of defense industry has declared that Russia will respond to words with words and to actions with actions. For example, he said, if the US would try to hurt the Russian aerospace industry they could fly their astronauts to the International Space Station themselves.
• Oleg Tsarev, one of the most popular political figures from the eastern Ukraine officially quit the Presidential race explaining that it was impossible for him to participate.
• Mikhail Dobkin, a top Party of Regions figure and close friend of the Major of Kharkov Gennadi Kermes - who has been shot and is in critical condition in an Israeli hospital declared that he is also thinking of quitting the Presidential race.
• Russian pilots have reported that the GPS signal over Ukraine appears to have been degraded by the USA. The USA also did that in Libya and during the 08.08.08 Ossetia. Luckily, the Russian constellation of GLONASS satellites is at its full capacity (24) and it can easily take over.
• US Secretary of State John Kerry:"Today Russia seeks to change the security landscape of Eastern and Central Europe, we have to make it absolutely clear to the Kremlin that NATO territory is inviolable we will defend every single inch of it."
• In Kiev the Right Sector and the Maidanites have fought each other
• Turchinov admits that his operation has failed:"I would like to say frankly that at the moment the security structures are unable to swiftly take the situation in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions back under control. Security personnel tasked with the protection of citizens are helpless. More than that, some of these units either aid or co-operate with terrorist groups. Our task is to stop the spread of the terrorist threat first of all in the Kharkiv and Odessa regions."
• It has been announced by the military authorities in Russia that two newcomers will participate in the next May 9th (aka "Victory Day") parade in Moscow: a Spetsnaz unit in its new bullet-proof combat fatigues and silenced rifles and a Naval Infantry unit from the Black Sea Feet which will be flying the flag of the Russian Crimean Republic. I can just about imagine the rage of the NATO attaches invited to watch the parade (which they always are each year).
• The pro-US liberal activist Boris Nemtsov has committed political suicide by going on Ukie TV and comparing Putin to Stalin. Not that he has much to lose since his "Parnas" party was firmly pegged in the single digits.
• Nemtsov, Khodorkovsky, Kasparov and Navalnyi and a few others are basically political corpses now
• On the same program on Ukie TV which featured Nemtsov, a well-know Ukrainian nationalist, Iurii Lutsenko, seriously declared that the "genetic code of the Ukrainian people give them the ability to live outside lies, whereas the genetic code of childern of Gengis Khan makes them willing to live in lies and spread the patriotic syphillis". His comments about the genetic makeup was made particularly comical since he was sitting next to a Jew (Nemtsov), on a TV show hosted by a Jew (Savik Shuster) and that he was co-organizing the conference which invited Nemtsov to Kiev with another famous Jew (Khodorkovsky). I wonder why these Jews who usually are hyper-sensitive to "genetic" issues all remained silent and smiling when a neo-Nazi nationalist was seriously discussing how the Asia genes of Russians made them different and less capable of opposing lies than the putative Ukrainian "race".
• The USA and EU have adopted further symbolic sanctions on Russia which only serve one purpose: to convince the Russians that the West cannot and will not take any meaningful punitive measures against Russia.
• Finally, the US is gleefully reporting that sanctions are hurting Russia which is now suffering from a capital outflow. This is partially true, there are signs of capital outflow, but this is speculative capital anyway which, like in 08.08.08 is moved out by western plutocrats in response to an anti-Russian campaign and which will soon be right back. So far, there are absolutely no signs of disinvestment for the simple reason that the Western plutocrats are not willing to suffer the consequences of such a move.

I might have mentioned his here, but there is a great Russian saying about making empty threats. It goes like this: "to try to scare a hedgehog with a naked butt". That is exactly what the US and EU are doing now: they are trying to scare Russia with sanctions which will hurt them infinitely more than they would hurt Russia. Not only that, but the very notion that slapping 15 or 30 people with a 6 months travel ban into the Eurozone will break the will of a people which withstood events like the 900 days of the blockade of Leningrad by the German military (with hunger, cold and artillery and Luftwaffe bombing raids every day) is laughable.

The good news today is the admission by Turchinov that he lost the Lugansk and Donetsk Oblast and that what he as to do now is to prevent these events from spreading to other parts of the Ukraine such as the Odessa and Kharkov regions (see map). My personal feeling is that Kharkov is gone too. But Odessa might be more complicated. The situation in Dnepropetrovsk is even more complex.

What could happen is a two-step disintegration of the Ukraine. In the first step the Lugansk, Donetsk and Kharkov regions would break off and form their own independent republic. Then a relative lull will take place between the upcoming Presidential elections (assuming they happen), the payment of pensions, the price increases and the total termination of Russian gas supplies to the Ukraine. Then over the summer and early Fall the rest of the Ukraine will explode in social protests which will push regions such as Odessa or Zaporozhie to break off while the oligarchs and neo-Nazis battle each other for the control of Kiev. The single most powerful factor affecting the Ukrainian disintegration process will be the economic boom in Crimea. If last year the Ukrainians compared the economic prosperity of Russians and EU-members, this year they will compare the economic situation in the junta controlled Ukraine (which I call "Banderastan") and Crimea. As for the People's Republic of Donetsk, it will have to join Russia sooner or later if only for security reasons.

Then, I can only express my amused amazement at Kerry's latest expression of hot air. What does "we have to make it absolutely clear to the Kremlin that NATO territory is inviolable we will defend every single inch of it" supposed to mean?! Does Kerry seriously believe that anybody - nevermind the Russians - will seriously believe that Russian tanks are about to attack NATO? This also begs the question of how exactly would NATO propose to fight Russia if the latter occupied the Baltic Statges (which Russia neither wants nor needs).

Kerry is turning into a full-time buffoon who makes Hillary look rational.

On last thing: I have heard that something close to 70% of Americans are unhappy with Obama and is his handling of the Ukrainian crisis, while Putin's popularity is pegged around 80% of support.

Looks to me like the Russian people and the American people very much have a similar point of view. Too bad that a parasitical plutocracy of 1% has put a non-entity like Obama in power.

The Saker

US doesn’t care about Ukraine, wants to prove it's still in charge – Lavrov

Washington's approach to the events in Ukraine is not fueled by concerns about the fate of the crisis-torn state, but rather by the desire to prove it is still running the show worldwide, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said.

RT,

30 April, 2014

The way the situation in Ukraine is reported in mainstream media indicates that “unfortunately, the information machine of our Western colleagues is working at full capacity,” Lavrov said following talks with his Chilean counterpart, Heraldo Munoz, in Santiago.

The US is trying to shape public opinion in a specific manner “because they are not concerned by the fate of Ukraine in the first place, but have strong desire to prove that it’s them who decides how things should be – always and everywhere,” Lavrov stated.

The foreign minister stressed that sanctions imposed on Russia by the US and its allies are the result of such a stance, and will have a costly outcome for Washington in the long run.

However, Moscow currently has no plans to retaliate against the “meaningless” sanctions from the West, he said.

“At this stage, we want to give our partners a chance to calm down,” Lavrov said. “We’ll see what happens next. If absolutely baseless notations towards Russia will continue, if there are attempts to pressure us with economic leverage, then we may reevaluate the situation.”

Lavrov has advised the US to “discipline those whom they brought to power in Ukraine” instead of sanctioning Moscow.

A handout picture released on April 30, 2014 by Ukrainian Prime Minister Press Office shows Maidan self-defence activists fighting with police special team guarding the Ukrainian Cabinet of the Ministers as a man holds an Ukrainian national flag in Kiev on April 30, 2014 (AFP Photo / Andrey Krafchenko)

He stated that despite declaring themselves “winners of the democratic revolution,” the current government in Kiev is based “on a coalition which includes candid radicals and extremists, condemned even by the EU back in 2012 when the Svoboda party first made it to parliament.” 

“But now the Europeans are shyly forgetting about that and cooperate with those same people,” Lavrov added.

The minister stressed the need to establish a direct dialogue between the coup-imposed Ukrainian authorities and protestors in the nation's southeast in order to solve the crisis in the country.

“The role of Russia, the US, and Europe, or any other interested state, isn’t about blanching one of sides of the Ukrainian conflict,” he said.

Lavrov also stated that Moscow has made an attempt to establish a dialogue by proposing a ‘round table’ discussion between Kiev and representatives of the southeastern regions within the framework of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).

“However, the US and EU representatives have blocked this initiative,” he stressed. “This is sad. We’ll continue to call for the full implementation of the Geneva Declaration, which our partners are trying to distance themselves from.”

As for the OSCE observers who are still being held by anti-Kiev protesters in the town of Slavyansk, Russia is “urging for them to be released,” Lavrov said.

Armed anti-goverment activists stand guard after storming the regional police building of the eastern Ukraine city of Lugansk on April 29, 2014 (AFP Photo / Alex Inoy)


“But we cannot decide for the self-defense forces,” he added. “Those people live under a constant threat coming from Kiev that the military and armored vehicles will be used against them; under constant threat from the extremists.”

Southeastern Ukraine has been gripped by ongoing protests, with the majority of its Russian-speaking population refusing to recognize the new authorities in Kiev, who took the reins via a military coup powered by far-right radicals.

Activists in Donetsk, Lugansk, and other regions have seized government buildings and are demanding a referendum on federalization.

Despite failing to provide any proof, Washington continues to blame Moscow for masterminding the uprising in Ukraine's southeast.

The US and its allies have already imposed several rounds of sanctions on Russia, targeting individual politicians and businessmen, as well as several companies.


Being sold into debt slavery

IMF gives green light for $17 bn Ukraine aid package

RT,

30 April, 2014

The International Monetary Fund has approved a two-year $17 billion loan package for Ukraine. The immediate disbursement of $3.2 billion will allow Ukraine to avoid a potential debt default.

The IMF’s 24-member board agreed to the two-year program to aid Ukraine’s troubled economy on Wednesday.

The approval gives the green light for the immediate release of $3.2 billion to Ukraine, which will allow the nation not to fall into default, Reuters reports. More than half of that money will be dedicated to supporting the country's budget.

The package will open up loans from other donors totaling around $15 billion. The goal is for Ukraine to use the money to stabilize its economy.

"The authorities' economic program supported by the Fund aims to restore macroeconomic stability, strengthen economic governance and transparency, and launch sound and sustainable economic growth, while protecting the most vulnerable," the IMF said in a statement.

Putin: 'US Behind Ukraine Crisis From The Beginning...Now Leading It'

Zero Hedge,

30 April, 2014

Having decided counter-sanctions are useless for now, reflecting on the uselessness of Western sanctions against his nation, Vladimir Putin warned, however, that if they continue he would "have to think about who is working in the key sectors of the Russian economy" - in other words, protectionism is coming. However, it is his ominous words regarding Washington's involvement in the crisis that appear to have fallen on deaf ears among the mainstream media... though will be no surprise to ZH readers "what is happening now shows us who really was mastering the process from the beginning. But in the beginning, the United States preferred to remain in the shadow." As Seregy Lavrov also added later in the day, the way the situation in Ukraine is reported in mainstream media indicates that "unfortunately, the information machine of our Western colleagues is working at full capacity."

As RT notes,

The US has been behind the Ukrainian crisis from the beginning, but was initially flying low, Russian President Vladimir Putin has told journalists, adding that he called on Kiev to establish an all-Ukrainian dialogue and find a compromise.

 

“I think what is happening now shows us who really was mastering the process from the beginning. But in the beginning, the United States preferred to remain in the shadow,” Putin said, as quoted by RIA Novosti.

 

Putin stated that since the US has taken a lead role in resolving the political crisis in Ukraine, it is “telling that they originally were behind this process, but now they just have emerged as leaders” of it.

 

The "Maidan cookies" policy paves the way to a broader crisis, Putin warned, referring to US officials showing up in central Kiev and encouraging protesters during demonstrations.

 

“It is necessary to understand that the situation is serious and try to find serious approaches to the solution,” he said.

 

Putin said that he has called on Kiev to start an all-Ukrainian dialogue, adding that other countries should not be blamed for the crisis.

 

“[They should] treat equally the rights of those living in other areas of Ukraine, first of all, I mean, the east and southeast, establish a dialogue, find a compromise," he told journalists while speaking about the measures necessary to put an end to the crisis. “Here's what you need to do; searching for the guilty outside Ukraine is wrong.”

More "costs" as the West tries to wriggle its way from the under the pile it has created and scapegoat an unwilling to play Russia...?

But perhaps Sergey Lavrov said it perfectly...

Washington's approach to the events in Ukraine is not fueled by concerns about the fate of the crisis-torn state, but rather by the desire to prove it is still running the show worldwide, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said.

 

The way the situation in Ukraine is reported in mainstream media indicates that “unfortunately, the information machine of our Western colleagues is working at full capacity,” Lavrov said following talks with his Chilean counterpart, Heraldo Munoz, in Santiago.

 

The US is trying to shape public opinion in a specific manner “because they are not concerned by the fate of Ukraine in the first place, but have strong desire to prove that it’s them who decides how things should be – always and everywhere,” Lavrov stated.