Massive, Two Week Long China Flood Sends Half a Million Fleeing, Destroys More Than 25,000 Homes
26
May, 2014
Black, ominous clouds have been dumping heavy rainfall over southeast China ever since May 12.
Warm
winds, laden with the moisture spilling off a super-heated Pacific
Ocean, collided with an intense storm track that often combined upper
level moisture flows spilling off the heat dome near the Caspian, a
high intensity heat and evaporation event now ongoing over India, and
cold, unstable air streaming down from the Kara Sea in the Arctic.
Since mid-May this relentlessly persistent pattern has been in
effect. And the inundation has been ongoing and extraordinarily
intense with day-after-day deluges pounding a sprawling region from
south-central China and on to the coast.
(Chinese news report from yesterday showing widespread flooding.)
Each
new dawn brings with it fresh losses with numerous major roads
closed, bridges washed out, and adding to what is now an almost
endless tally of evacuation orders. Daily rainfall totals in the
range of 2-6 inches or more have saturated grounds, burst riverbanks,
and turned streets into torrents. By today, more than 1 million
people had been impacted with nearly a half million evacuated or
rescued from flooded buildings. Since the, still ongoing, floods
began in mid-May, more than 25,000 homes and 40 souls have been lost
to the epic storms.
(Relentless heavy rainfall over Southeast China visible in the above four satellite images on [left to right, top to bottom] May 12, May 18, May 23rd and May 27th. Image source:LANCE-MODIS.)
The
Chinese have invested heavily in flood defenses since the 1998 deluge
that resulted in 4,000 dead, over 15 million homeless, and 26 billion
dollars in damages. During that year, a strong El Nino set off severe
storms that turned large Chinese rivers into raging inland seas. The
Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze was built, in part, to prevent this
kind of terrible flooding.
But
fears of a possible repeat of the 1998 event are on the rise despite
heightened Chinese defenses. A strong El Nino may again be gathering
in the Pacific and with global temperatures now warmer than even
those seen during the late 1990s, atmospheric moisture loading is
probably at its highest in at least the last 10,000 years.
Extreme
Floods Linked to El Nino and Climate Change
This
extreme atmospheric heating and global trend toward El Nino could
well result in continuing and possibly worsening local impacts for
Southeast China. It
is the second region this spring to suffer epic flooding after the
worst flood event in 1,000 years resulted in the destruction of over
100,000 homes in the Balkans.
High
atmospheric heat content increases both the frequency of severe rain
and drought events due to an amplification of the hydrological cycle
through evaporation. Overall, it is estimated that the current .8 C
of warming over 1880s temperature averages has caused a 6%
amplification of the hydrological cycle worldwide. That’s 6%
heavier rainfall and 6% more intense droughts when averaged over the
entire globe. But as we well know, weather isn’t an evenly
distributed phenomena. Some regions are more likely to receive a bulk
of that increased rainfall even as others are more prone to see a
majority of the increased drying. Add to this consequence a
meandering Jet Stream (set off by loss of Northern Hemisphere sea
ice) with the tendency to lock in very persistent weather patterns
and you end up with a greatly enhanced likelihood for extreme weather
due to the wide-ranging effects of atmospheric warming.
Weather
Forecast Calls for More Severe Storms
For
southeast China, weather patterns will remain locked in for a
continuation of potential extreme rainfall over the next week. The
large heat domes over the Caspian and India will continue to spill
out moisture over Southeast China even as the extraordinarily warm
Pacific provides its own moisture flow. Notably, the weather forecast
for this Wednesday calls for another large outbreak of thunderstorms
with the potential to drop 2-4+ inches of rainfall over already
saturated and inundated grounds. Thursday through Sunday is expected
to bring yet more waves of severe thunderstorms to the region.
Given
this combined extreme weather and climate state it is certainly
possible that the current flood tally will continue to lengthen for
Southeast China.
Links:
Hat
tip to Colorado Bob
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