Ulkraine update

I would rate the likelihood of Russian military intervention as HIGHLY unlikely, but sabre-rattling by the US as real.

Barack Obama warns Russia against any military intervention in Ukraine

the Guardian,

28 Febraury, 2014

The US president, Barack Obama, warned "there will be costs" for military intervention in Ukraine as Russian forces were deployed in Crimea and the region's pro-Russian prime minister appeared to call openly for Vladimir Putin to step in.

Tensions ratcheted up further as Saturday dawned when Sergei Aksenov, the pro-Russian prime minister of Crimea, declared himself in charge of all military forces, police and other security services in the autonomous Ukrainian region, while also making a direct appeal to the Russian president.

In a statement reported by local and Russian news agencies, Aksenov said any elements of the armed forces, police, national security service and border guards who did not agree to answer only to his orders should leave their posts.

"Understanding my responsibility for the life and security of citizens, I appeal to the president of Russia Vladimir Putin for assistance in guaranteeing peace and calmness on the territory of the autonomous republic of Crimea," Aksenov said in his statement.

With pro-Russian forces already in apparent control of Crimea's key airport and parliament building, and Russian troops reportedly on the move across the peninsula, the White House warned against any further escalation in what has rapidly degenerated into the most tense regional crisis since the Russia-Georgia war six years ago. Aksenov, the head of the main pro-Russia party on the peninsula, was appointed by the Crimean parliament on Thursday as tensions soared over the authorities resistance to the new authorities in Kiev, who took power last week.

In a stark message delivered after fresh US intelligence assessments of Russia's presence in the southern region, Obama said any Russian intervention would constitute a "clear violation" of international law.

"We are now deeply concerned by reports over Russian military movements taken by the Russian Federation inside of Ukraine," Obama said. "Any violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity would be deeply destabilising."

He added: "Just days after the world came to Russia for the Olympic Games it would invite the condemnation of nations around the world. Indeed, the United States will stand with the international community in affirming there will be costs for any military intervention in the Ukraine."

The president took the unusual step of issuing the remarks from the White House late on Friday, after postponing a scheduled appearance at a Democratic national committee meeting in Washington DC.

His remarks came amid reports from Ukrainian officials in Kiev that hundreds of Russian troops were in Crimea. Ukraine's acting president, Oleksandr Turchynov, accused Putin of "provocations" and urged him to pull back, while interior minister Arsen Avakov described the takeover of the airports as a "military invasion and occupation".
                  

Russian armoured personnel carriers reported to be heading to Simferopol of Crimea, Ukraine. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

In his statement, Obama praised the interim authorities in Kiev for their restraint.

Pentagon and White House national security advisors had spent the day scrambling to obtain reliable information about the nature of armed forces taking control of government infrastructure in Crimea.

Earlier in the afternoon, the US administration had been vague about the assessment of Russian activity in Ukraine, saying only that officials were "investigating … whether Russia might be crossing the line in any way" and raising concerns about the nature of pro-Russian forces in Crimea.

The US secretary of state, John Kerry, said he had phoned Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, and received assurances about reports of Russian forces in Crimea.

"We raised the issue of the airport, raised the issue of armoured vehicles, raised the issue of personnel in various places," Kerry said. "While we were told that they are not engaging in any violation of the sovereignty and do not intend to, I nevertheless made it clear that that could be misinterpreted at this moment and that there are enough tensions that it is important for everybody to be extremely careful not to inflame the situation and not to send the wrong messages."

However, the Obama administration hardened its stance through the afternoon, as doubts grew over Moscow's assurances. Ukraine's ambassador to the UN, Yuriy Sergeyev, called for a security council meeting, claiming that 10 Russian military transport aircraft and 11 Russian military attack helicopters had crossed into Ukraine's airspace.

"We are strong enough to defend ourselves," Sergeyev told reporters outside the council chamber.

Moments before Obama's remarks, the US ambassador to the UN, Samantha Power, addressed reporters in New York. "We are gravely disturbed by reports of Russian military deployments in the Crimea," she said, adding that Moscow should "pull back" and "stand down" its military presence in the peninsula.

A senior administration official said the US is considering pulling out of the G8 summit in Russia.

A US boycott of the June meeting would be a major blow to Putin, particularly if backed by European G8 members- the UK, Italy, Germany and France.

"We are consulting with European partners and considering options," the senior administration official told the Guardian. "It is hard to see how we and other European leaders would attend the G8 in Sochi if Russia is intervening in Ukraine."

The forthright US demands contrasted with the cautious approach taken by Washington for much of the week, amid some criticism that the Obama administration has been impotent in the face of a rapidly deteriorating situation in Ukraine's primarily Russian-speaking regions in the east and south.

Earlier on Friday, the White House press secretary, Jay Carney, repeatedly avoided questions about what the Obama administration would do if Russia was judged to have intervened across the border.

"I'm not going to speculate on what we might do if something might happen," Carney said.

The British prime minister, David Cameron, spoke to Putin on Friday and reinforced the message that Moscow should respect Ukraine's territorial integrity. Downing Street said both agreed that free and fair elections were the best way to secure the country's future. A No 10 spokesman said: "The prime minister emphasised that all countries should respect the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine. President Putin agreed, stressing that Russian military exercises in the area had been planned before the current situation in Ukraine."

Speaking to Cameron and other EU leaders, including Angela Merkel, Putin insisted that Russia was not violating Ukraine's sovereignty and had no intention of doing so. But Putin's constructive tone and telephone diplomacy was starkly at odds with the reality on the ground in Crimea, where the parliament and both airports have fallen into the hands of pro-Russian armed units in rapid succession.

Ukraine's fugitive president Viktor Yanukovych gives a news conference in Rostov-on-Don, a city in southern Russia. Photograph: Pavel Golovkin/AP

The EU seems to have been taken by surprise by the fast-moving events. Three governments in the EU on Friday voiced concern about the sudden armed manoeuvres in Crimea. But the foreign ministers of Germany, France, and Poland – all in Kiev last Friday to mediate a settlement in Ukraine – failed to make any mention of Russia in their statement, while pressing the new government in Kiev to assuage Russian alarm about discriminatory policies.

"We are deeply concerned with the tensions in Crimea. Everything must be done to decrease the tension in the eastern region and promote peaceful discussions among relevant parties," the ministers said.

The Europeans are leaning on the new government in Kiev to make a gesture that would help deny Moscow a pretext for intervening in Ukraine, primarily by providing assurances of Russian minority and language rights. In one of its first acts at the weekend following the ousting of Viktor Yanukovych, the new parliament in Kiev rescinded legislation allowing for Russian to be the country's second official language. The Europeans want that new policy reversed.

"There are expectations on the part of minorities, especially on the part of the Russian minority in Ukraine," said Germany's foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier. "They want their rights to be respected. Protecting the rights of minorities is something that the new government has to provide for and has to be very clear and outspoken, not only in their words but also with the respective legislative action.

"The government now has to prove that it is the government of the whole of Ukraine, the north, the south, the east, and the west, that they actually stand up for those parts of the country. Legislative measures, as have been taken recently, have to be made redundant. We have to make sure that that is the case."

Meanwhile, Austria, Switzerland and Liechtenstein, said they were freezing the assets of Yanukovych and his millionaire dentist son, Oleksandr, in response to a request from Kiev targeting the fortunes of up to 20 of the Yanukovych clique. Yanukovych's family, his former prime minister and former chief of staff all have substantial properties, businesses, and bank accounts in Austria. The foreign ministry in Vienna said assets were being frozen. But the details were leaked to the Viennese press before being implemented, leaving it unclear whether the assets had already been shifted.

The move follows claims that Yanukovych and his deposed government stole £40bn from the Ukrainian treasury.

Swiss authorities said the asset freeze would come into force on Friday at noon. The prosecutor's office in Geneva said it had also launched a money-laundering investigation against Yanukovych and his son. "A penal investigation for severe money laundering is currently being conducted in Geneva against Viktor Yanukovych and his son Oleksandr," a statement said.

It said prosecutor Yves Bertossa and the police had searched the office of a company owned by the son on Thursday morning and seized some documents. The same day Switzerland said it would order Swiss banks to freeze any funds found to be linked to the family.

Austria said it would freeze the bank accounts of 18 Ukrainians as a precaution until EU sanctions came into force.

In London, the Foreign Office said it was still working with EU partners on implementing sanctions against individuals after they were agreed on Thursday last week. No individuals to be targeted have yet been named.

Italy will take punitive measures if and when adopted by the EU, foreign ministry spokesmen Aldo Amati said. Spain said Austria had made a bilateral decision and Madrid would move in line with European Unionpolicy on the matter.

Hypocrisy

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