The IPCC releases its report

The IPCC has released its report, which concludes that 2C will be breached within 30 years if carbon emissions continue. It also concludes that humans are to blame.

This still falls short of the conclusions of other scientists who are relying, not on sophisticated computer modelling but on actual observation to show that the Arctic ice is melting at an unprecedented rate, and fails to take into consideration a growing list of irreversible positive feedbacks that have been observed.

The IPCC is a political organisation with scientists from many countries that are trying to reach a consensus amidst often conflicting political agenda.

The reality is that observed reality-on-the-ground is far more dire than even the conclusions of this compromise document.

The sad thing is that some of the accusations directed against the IPCC by critics are probably true. However, the assumptions of 'skeptics' that there is some sort of 'globalist agenda' behind the 'hyping' of climate science is misguided, and turns these people into the unconscious dupes of the likes of the Koch brothers and the hydrocarbon industry which would like to see, not only 'business- as-usual' but the exploitation of oil locked in hitherto inaccessible areas as the ice melts.

None of the scientists ( such as James Hansen) who see the seriousness of the situation are advocating for carbon trading or any of the other 'business-as-usual' responses (such as Al Gore).

A small minority are of the considered opinion that the last opportunity for action was at COP15 in Copenhagen, and the 'game's over' and we are looking down the barrel of near term human extinction.

I have included the usually-professional James Corbett's report as this will doubtless appear on Facebook, on a 'what about this?' basis.

My own conclusion is that apart from being the least professional of all the Corbett reports the justified aspect of his report is the criticism of the political nature of the IPCC (with the corruption that comes with large organisations of this sort) – not with the science.

No doubt when the headlines (with the platitude from politicians) have died down (probably by tomorrow) it will be back to the suicidal 'business-as-usual and how to extract as much hydrocarbon from the earth while 'balancing this with the needs of the environment'

---Seemorerocks

IPCC: 30 years to climate 

calamity if we carry on 

blowing the carbon budget

Global 2C warming threshold will be breached within 30 years, leading scientists report, with humans unequivocally to blame

the Guardian,

27 September, 2013

The world's leading climate scientists have set out in detail for the first time how much more carbon dioxide humans can pour into the atmosphere without triggering dangerous levels of climate change – and concluded that more than half of that global allowance has been used up.

If people continue to emit greenhouse gases at current rates, the accumulation of carbon in the atmosphere could mean that within as little as two to three decades the world will face nearly inevitable warming of more than 2C, resulting in rising sea levels, heatwaves, droughts and more extreme weather.

This calculation of the world's "carbon budget" was one of the most striking findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the expert panel of global scientists who on Friday produced the most comprehensive assessment yet of our knowledge of climate change at the end of their four-day meeting in Stockholm.

The 2,000-plus page report, written by 209 lead authors, also found it was "unequivocal" that global warming was happening as a result of human actions, and that without "substantial and sustained" reductions in greenhouse gas emissions we will breach the symbolic threshold of 2C of warming, which governments around the world have pledged not to do.

Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary-general, urged world leaders to pay heed to the "world's authority on climate change" and forge a new global deal on cutting emissions. "The heat is on. Now we must act," he said.

John Kerry, the US secretary of state, said in a statement: "This is yet another wakeup call: those who deny the science or choose excuses over action are playing with fire."

Credit: Guardian graphics

"Once again, the science grows clearer, the case grows more compelling, and the costs of inaction grow beyond anything that anyone with conscience or commonsense should be willing to even contemplate," he added.

The IPCC also rebuffed the argument made by climate sceptics that a "pause" for the last 10-15 years in the upward climb of global temperatures was evidence of flaws in their computer models. In the summary for policymakers, published on Friday morning after days of deliberations in the Swedish capital, the scientists said: "Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth's surface than any preceding decade since 1850. In the northern hemisphere, 1983-2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1,400 years."

Thomas Stocker, co-chair of the report working group, said measuring recent years in comparison to 1998, an exceptionally hot year, was misleading and that temperature trends could only be observed over longer periods, of about 30 years.

Natural variability was cited as one of the reasons for warming being less pronounced in the last 15 years, and the role of the oceans in absorbing heat, which is still poorly understood.

"There are not sufficient observations of the uptake of heat, particularly into the deep ocean, that will be one of the possible mechanisms that would explain this warming hiatus," said Stocker.

Credit: Guardian graphics

But the most controversial finding of the report was its "carbon budget". Participants told the Guardian this was the last part of the summary to be decided, and the subject of hours of heated discussions in the early hours of Friday morning. Some countries were concerned that including the numbers would have political repercussions.

The scientists found that to hold warming to 2C, total emissions cannot exceed 1,000 gigatons of carbon. Yet by 2011, more than half of that total "allowance" – 531 gigatons – had already been emitted.

To ensure the budget is not exceeded, governments and businesses may have to leave valuable fossil fuel reserves unexploited. "There's a finite amount of carbon you can burn if you don't want to go over 2C," Stocker told the Guardian. "That implies if there is more than that [in fossil fuel reserves], that you leave some of that carbon in the ground."

This raises key questions of how to allocate the remaining "carbon budget" fairly among countries, an issue that some climate negotiators fear could wreck the UN climate talks, which are supposed to culminate in a global agreement on emissions in 2015.

Their other key findings in the report – the first such assessment since 2007 and only the fifth since 1988 – included:

• Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide are now at levels "unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years".

• Global temperatures are likely to rise by 0.3C to 4.8C by the end of the century depending on how much governments control carbon emissions.

• Sea levels are expected to rise a further 26-82cm (10-32in) by 2100. The wide variation in part reflects the difficulty scientists still have in predicting sea level rises.

• The oceans have acidified, having absorbed about a third of the carbon dioxide emitted.

This is the first time ever that I have heard the issue of climate change being the top of the headlines on Radio NZ news. The Green Party response was quoted

Stark climate change 

warning issued

Rsdio New Zealand,

28 September, 2013

An international scientific panel has issued its strongest statement yet on climate change, saying it is "extremely likely" human activity is the main cause of global warming.

Scientists are now 95% certain that humans have been the "dominant cause" of the rise in temperatures since the 1950s.

The IPCC report is due on Friday.

AFP

Global warming is "unequivocal", according to a landmark report on the Earth's climate by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

In its previous assessment, in 2007, the United Nations-sponsored panel said it was "very likely" that global warming was man-made and there was a 90% certainty that humans were the cause.

It now says the evidence has grown thanks to more observations, a better understanding of the climate system and improved models to analyse the impact of rising temperatures.

The panel says a human footprint can be found in the warming of the atmosphere and oceans, in rising sea levels, melting snow and ice and in changes in some climate extremes.

It predicts temperatures will rise by 0.3 to 4.8°C this century.

The panel also projects sea levels will rise by between 26 and 82 centimetres by 2100.

The IPCC reports are released every five years and used as the blueprint for national and international climate policy.

Almost 900 people from 32 countries have been involved in preparing the report.

The report warns that New Zealand will get warmer overall, with heavy rain in the west and dry weather in the east.

Call for action

Green Party climate change spokesperson Kennedy Graham says the stark new findings show the Government needs to act urgently on the issue.

Dr Graham says the Government must acknowledge the magnitude and threat of rising temperatures.

He says those who claimed the warnings of increasing temperatures were alarmist should take stock of the findings.

Victoria University climate scientist James Renwick says the influence of humans on the climate has been known for some time and he agrees something should be done about it.

"When it gets translated into actual policy and actual action on the ground there's not an awful lot going on," he says.

Dr Renwick says some progress is being made, but it is too slow.

"Everyone's waiting for everyone else to do something," says Dr Renwick.

A view from climate skeptic James Corbett

'The IPCC Exposed' – James Corbett