1,000
Japanese Officers To Participate In "Island Recapture"
Drill In California
23
April, 2013
More
than six months since the Japanese nationalistic escalation over the
disputed island chain (that shall not be named) in the East China Sea
sent Sino-Japanese foreign relations to a level not seen since a
particular territorial dispute over Manchuria, tensions just hit a
fever pitch overnight, when an armada
of eight Chinese ships entered what
Japan claimed were its territorial waters
China's
version of the story is that the vessels were there to monitor the
activity of a flotilla of boats reportedly carrying members of a
Japanese nationalist group (in what it too, naturally, views as its
territorial waters). This was the most Chinese ships to enter
Japanese waters near the Senkakus since the Japanese government
purchased three of them from what it considers their owner last
September and effectively nationalized the chain, a move China has
quite vocally disputed and which has led to violent anti-Japanese
demonstrations in China, as well as a wide-ranging boycott of
numerous Japanese exports.
Japan
promptly followed protocol and summoned the Chinese ambassador and
lodged a protest over the maritime activity.
“It
is extremely regrettable and unacceptable that Chinese state ships
continue to engage in intrusion,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide
Suga told a news conference. “We are protesting strictly through
our diplomatic channels.”
The
intrusion came after around 10 fishing boats carrying members of a
conservative political group called Ganbare Nippon left Ishigaki
Island in Okinawa and headed toward the Senkakus on Monday night.
Things just escalated from there when running in four formations, the
eight Chinese ships monitored the Japanese ships from different
angles, China said in a statement.
Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe vowed to “expel by force” any Chinese landing
on the islets.
“We
would take decisive action against any attempt to enter territorial
waters and to land,” Abe told the Diet in response to questions
from lawmakers. “We would never allow” a landing.
“It
would be natural for us to expel by force (the Chinese) if they were
to make a landing,” he said.
Obviously,
when we first read this latest incarnation of tiny David provoking a
massive Goliath, we couldn't help but smile. Yet it turns out that
Japan is indeed hell bent on pushing China to the limit, and then
some, in this parading around with its best friend: the United
States.
Moments
ago Kyodo
reported that
Japan's Defense Ministry said on Tuesday that "about
1,000 officers of the nation's Self-Defense Forces will participate
in a U.S. drill to be held in California in June involving
recapturing control of an isolated island."
Did
we mention the drill would be held in California?
It
is quite clear what said "recaptured island" is supposed to
represent. It is even clearer what the US backing and sponsorship of
such a drill on US soil is supposed to telegraph to China, so we
won't go into any details.
It
will be the first time for SDF personnel to participate in such a
drill on the U.S. mainland.
Japan's
participation could trigger a backlash from China as the Defense
Ministry has been strengthening its capability to protect isolated
islands amid soured ties with China over territorial issues
surrounding the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, experts on
defense issues said.
Actually
China does not need to to twitch even the smallest military muscle:
all it has to do is engage in a perfectly peaceful trade blockade of
Japan: halt all exports to the tiny (by comparison) and irradiated
nation, while boycotting all imports from Tokyo, which in better days
amounted to 20% of all external trade.
By doing so, China assures two
things: the imminent collapse of Abenomics as even a 1,000,000
Nikkei225 will do nothing at all to prevent the country from entering
an energy shortage shock, even as the local manufacturing sector
implodes under its own weight, losing a core export market, and be
forced to dump products on local soil in the process unleashing
hyperdeflation.
In
other words, if China wants, it can terminate Abe's career in months.
And since the entire fate of the "developed world's"
banking system is now in the hands of the BOJ and the successful
conclusion of its reflation experiment, China just may just have been
given the perfect opportunity to take down the (G-)7 birds with one
stone.
The
only question is whether Beijing feels it is ready and is willing to
now finally truly challenge the Western reserve currency hegemony. Or
wait some more.
Either
way, it is only a matter of time now.
That has to be the most stupid analysis I think I have ever read.
ReplyDeleteTake a couple of points:
A) The collapse of Japan. If China was to do this, and the scenario outlined above may in fact have the ability to achieve this end, it would rapidly spiral out of control. Japan is a major trading nation and as number 3 in the world, would collapse other economies as quickly as it did itself. China, as an export driven nation, would rapidly follow suit. They dont have the domestic demand to support the collapse in their own exports. Unrest is already simmering there. This would cause it to boil over instantly.
B) The US. It wont sit idly by and watch one of its main trading partners annihilated (I dont think if push came to shove it would do it for treaty or friendship reasons, but economic reasons, hell yes)
C) Blowback. There are too many unintended outcomes that could arise. China is not stupid. They know that this is not the way to play it.