New Zealand drought - collapse of NZ agriculture?

In yesterday's panel on Radio New Zealand the possibility of the collapse of the NZ economy through drought was mentioned (their expression, not mine)

It was pointed out that a projected surplus in the balance of payments of $125m turned into a deficit of $305m.

One-third of New Zealand's export receipts come from dairy; dairy production is particularly susceptible to drought. Already, according to Federated Farmers production is down 20%;another source said that milk production was down 20% every day.

To give an indication of the effects of drought, the years 2007-9 saw a triple drought on the East Coast. Estimates are that this cost the country $2.8 billion in export receipts.

Not a single menton of climate change was made – the talk was solely of mitigation and water conservation.

I recommend the Radio NZ interview below, that gives a good idea of the extent of the problem.

I would say that the New Zealand economy, and in particular, agriculture, are under extreme pressure. These come from the global economic collapse, climate change and disastrous government policies.

I will deal with some other possible contributors to a collapse of NZ agriculture separately.

--Seemorerocks

Northland drought strains farmers

For the third time in four summers Northland has looked like a scene from a western, and once again a drought has been declared, recognising how dire the situation is for farmers like Malcolm Welsh

3 News,

27 February, 2013

“[I am] struggling just feeding animals, [with] financial pressure, extra cost,” he says.

Northland’s last drought cost the local economy $30 million. The Government knows that could happen again.

“Yes, that is a concern,” says Mr Guy. “The Waikato situation in ‘07, ’08 took about $1 billion out of the bottom of the line for New Zealand, so we do know this is going to take a hit on the Government.”

The official drought status means in extreme cases farmers will be eligible for an emergency benefit. But the majority of support will come in the form of advice, such as help negotiating with creditors.

Parts of Northland have had their driest February since records began in 1948, and there's no sign of any significant rainfall on the horizon.

But Northland is not alone. Much of the North Island is teetering on drought status.

“We have a whole large area in New Zealand where the soils are extremely dry or significantly dry,” says NIWA climate scientist Georgina Griffiths. “So all of the North Island is bordering on that category.”

NIWA monitors soil moisture levels, and says historically Otago and Canterbury are dry in February.

But this year, as well as the South, much of the North Island is designated "extremely dry". Many areas are classified as also being “significantly dry”.

Niwa says it's going to take weeks of regular rainfall for the soils of the North Island to recover, and farmers like Mr Welsh can only anxiously wait.

GOVERNMENT POISED TO DECLARE DROUGHT IN NORTHLAND

Lynn Freeman talks to Julie Jonker, Northland Rural Support Trust coordinator and dairy farmer from Mata; Tafi Manjala, from Dairy NZ, an industry organisation owned by dairy farmers; and James Houghton, dairy farmer and Federated Farmers' Waikato provincial president