Egypt

Egypt's armed forces chief warns unrest could cause collapse of state

General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi's comments spark fears military might once again intervene in day-to-day governance of Egypt

the Guardian,

29 January, 2013

Continuing civil unrest may soon cause the collapse of the Egyptian state, the head of the country's armed forces warned.

Parts of Egypt are in turmoil following five days of rioting in which 52 people have been killed and more than 1,000 injured after protests against President Mohamed Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood and police brutality turned violent. The unrest comes two years after the start of the 2011 revolution that toppled the former dictator Hosni Mubarak.

General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi's comments have sparked fears that the military might once again intervene in the day-to-day governance of Egypt, a country effectively ruled for most of the past century by army officers.

Writing on the army's Facebook page, Sisi said: "The continuation of the struggle of the different political forces … over the management of state affairs could lead to the collapse of state."

Sisi, who was appointed by Morsi last year and is also the country's defence minister, said the army would remain a "solid and cohesive block" on which the state could rely.

Egypt's new constitution underwrites the army's judicial independence. The army was also asked to help restore order on the streets of Port Said this week, prompting reminders of Mubarak-era state governance.

The military has, however, taken more of a backseat role since Sisi replaced General Hussein Tantawi as head of the armed forces last year. It still controls large parts of the Egyptian economy, but is felt in some quarters to be content for the time being with getting its own house in order.

Yasser el-Shimy, Egypt analyst for the International Crisis Group, described Sisi's statement as a "gentle reminder" of the army's influence.

"The army is very happy to pass the buck – they really have been burnt by their involvement [in politics] over the last two years," said Shimy. "But there is a point after which the army will feel that they cannot just stand back if they feel the integrity of the state is in danger. That's the part the opposition don't understand. If Morsi falls, it's not going to be Baradei [opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei] who comes after. It will be the army."

But Shimy emphasised that he did not expect the situation to reach that point. "It's not going to descend to what happened two years ago," he said. "What happened two years ago was a rare moment of unity in the face of an authoritarian regime."

Asked by the Guardian whether he feared military intervention should the unrest continue, Gehad al-Haddad, a spokesman for the Muslim Brotherhood, said: "No. I know enough about the way President Morsi removed General Tantawi to not be worried."

On a street near Tahrir Square protesters also said they did not fear a military intervention, arguing that either regime was undesirable. "If the army comes, we will still be on the street," said Mina Remond, a 20-year-old student standing among demonstrators on the banks of the Nile.

Egypt's unrest entered its sixth successive day on Tuesday, as protesters in the three canal cities under a state of emergency defied a curfew and clashed with security forces into the early hours two years after the so-called Day of Rage, one of the fiercest days of fighting during the 2011 revolution. In Cairo, the intensity of the fighting in and around Tahrir Square cooled somewhat, though the Semiramis – a five-star hotel near the square – was stormed overnight, prompting a series of panicked tweets from hotel staff. The offices of the Cairo Governorate, a mile from Tahrir Square, were also attacked.

In another attempt to lessen some of the violence, Egypt's prosecutor-general also ordered the arrest of the Black Bloc, a new group of young masked protesters that emerged for the first time in Egypt last Thursday, and which has been involved in many of the most aggressive clashes. Dressed in black and in balaclavas, the Black Bloc appear to be inspired by a similar approach used by anti-capitalist protesters in Europe and America throughout much of the past two decades.

Little is known about the group, which first appeared on Facebook on 21 January, and purports to act solely against the Muslim Brotherhood.

Prosecutor general Talaat Abdullah ordered the arrest of the "organised group that participates in terrorist acts", saying that the group is endangering "national security" – even though there may be little that connects these masked protesters other than the colour of their clothes. In Europe, the Black Bloc is considered a tactic rather than an organised body, and has nothing resembling a centralised system of governance.