2013
is only days away, and according to most forecasters, Solar Max
should be approaching as well. But is it? Barely-increasing sunspot
counts and anemic solar activity suggest an interesting possibility:
Perhaps Solar Max is already here. (Below)
This plot of measured vs. predicted sunspot numbers illustrates the
idea: The blue curve traces monthly sunspot numbers measured since
2000. The red curve is the prediction of the NOAA-led Solar Cycle
Prediction Panel. So far, Solar Cycle 24 is underperforming even
compared to the panel’s low expectations. There is still a strong
chance that Cycle 24 will rebound and peak in 2013 as expected. It
might even be a double-peaked cycle like the cycle before it. As 2013
nears only one thing is certain: we don’t know what will happen.
Stay tuned.
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