Reflections on Collapse (and other matters)

As we move into August I am reminded of Michael Ruppert’s warning that he put out in April warning of the downstream effects of the disaster at Fukushima.

Basically he was saying back then that because of electricity shortages in Japan because of the ongoing nuclear catastrophe at Fukushima there would be problems for companies throughout the world - largely because of the shortage of electronic componentry  from Japan.  Companies such as General Electric and Siemens were directly affected by this.

He stated that the next round of quarterly earnings reports, due out in July would make it absolutely clear that the world was in depression.

His very definite statements (“even a caveman could see it”) attracted a lot of vitriolic ad-hominem attacks on Mike Ruppert - claims that he had lost his credibility.

As July came these attacks resumed again and Michael Ruppert was forced to respond to the attacks by admitting that he hadn’t got it 100% right, although he stood by his prediction.

Well, In early August (not early July) things  look very different. The earnings reports for a number of companies have shown major falls in earnings; companies have been laying off large numbers of staff (see, for instance today’s story about HSBC); economic indicators are much worse than anyone predicted.

The White House itself pointed to the earthquake in Japan and Fukushima as a reason for the dismal GDP figures it had to put out just a few days ago.

These sort of attacks seem to be what one can expect  especially when it comes to people like Mike Ruppert who have come to very definite conclusions based on sound research.  Not only is the message unacceptable to large numbers of people who prefer to take refuge in denial, but people like Mike Ruppert with his' large ego' (and big heart) become ‘inconvenient’ people.


If there was anything he was wrong about it was that it is impossible to falsify earnings reports and the statement that everything will unravel "by July" - read "by August".

Here is the video made back in April




Dealing with denial in the progressive Left movement

Just a day or so ago my partner met someone on the train who was experiencing significant degrees of anxiety about social and financial collapse - but significantly reported his experience of the inability of people in the Transition Towns movement to engage with this - so now he feels very much alone with his emotional response to collapse.


Another encounter was over the weekend.  


We went into a shop and without any cue from us the shopkeeper (a European) wondered aloud whether her money was safe in the bank.


This made me realise that there are people who do have a sense of what is happening.  They are not the people one would expect.


And, at the same time the people one might expect to have more understanding often DON'T.

Another interaction has been with someone within the Transition Town movement.  


This particular person (and they are fully representative of a strain within the movement) seemed to be lack any sense of urgency with regard to the issues that so bother me, and sees the future as ‘uncertain’, foreseeing problems in 10 or 20 years time.

The insistence on a ‘positive message’ goes with a failure to understand the nature of what confronts us today.  It reflects an attitude that is against any form of leadership and advocates solutions based on consensus.

What I confronted was the idea that ‘science’ has shown that if the message is too stark, too 'negative' then that will lead to ‘cognitive dissonance’ and a 'negative' reaction.

I completely failed to help this person see that the ‘potential’ problems of 10 years time are here right now and coming down on us like a tsunami, at first seemingly slow-moving but inescapable.

Basically what was being said boiled down to is that the ‘message’ has to be diluted to something that is ‘acceptable’.  Otherwise the result will be cognitive dissonance and denial.


For me this approach is the equivalent of a situation where a dam is about to break.  Instead of warning people and telling them to evacuate immediately a message along the lines of "it is possible that within the near future there might be some problems with the structural integrity of the dam"!

I freely admit that the numbers of people who really ‘get it’ and respond to this message are likely to be small - the vast majority either aggressively denying any problems or ‘moving the deckchairs on the Titanic’

However, if you dilute the message, try to be ‘positive’ and give people the illusion that there is time to agree and ‘solve’ the problem then you ensure that any consequent action is non-existent or meaningless.


It is also, in my mind, tantamount to a lie.

I can’t really help myself from thinking about the reaction of the Ministry of Magic (and the minister, Cornelius Fudge) to the ‘inconvenient’ news of the return of Voldemort and the Death Eaters in Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix -  a wonderful allegory for today of denial of something unacceptable that leads to political repression.

Some of the same group of people, in their anger have advised me to be 'careful what you wish for'. What sane person could ever wish for the collapse of society?!  


My conclusions are based not on emotion but on what Noam Chomsky calls "institutional analysis".


It reminds me of what a friend said years ago: "optimism is the absence of realism" - he was a Russian of course!

This week I have watched presentations that have forced me to further question my political assumptions.


Firstly, I watched a discussion on the Real News, which represents a Left perspective on things. In this program they were talking about the US debt ceiling crisis and opined that the debt was not that large and interest rates were low, so that when the economy recovered (sic) the US would be able to grow its way out of debt.


At the same time some of the most realistic and trenchant criticisms of US capitalism came from people who could only be described as libertarians and who believe in the free market.


Everything seems topsy-turvy.  The 'Left' defending the status-quo, the "Right' criticising it.


In this vein I have to re-evaluate the New Zealand Green Party.


There are values within the Party - based on consensus and ideals of social and environmental justice - that are laudable, especially in the context of the bear pit of politics.


However, ideas and policies that were relevant three years ago (or even, perhaps a year ago) are less so now.


From what I have seen, these Liberal attitudes I have been talking about are prevalent in the party and demonstrate an inability to confront the tsunami of economic and social collapse (that unfortunately is likely to elicit a political response that is closer to fascism than anything else).


I am having to confront the sad fact that the Green Party is in danger of becoming

dangerously out-of-touch with its failure to take a more aggressive stance on the issues of Peak Oil, climate change and (most notably) the economic tsunami.

I will never be a libertarian but I am rapidly losing faith in the liberal Left.