Wednesday, 18 December 2013

Explaining extreme weather

I can thoroughly recommend this explanation by Paul Beckwith of the link between extreme weather conditions and abrupt climate change and melting of the ice at the North Pole.

What was particularly interesting for me was an explanation of what is happening in the Southern Hemisphere and Antarctica - something I have not heard before.

Global atmospheric circulation disruption and weather extremes
Paul Beckwith

Part one

Global greenhouse gas concentrations have risen enough to cause sufficient reduction of Arctic sea ice and terrestrial snow cover to break apart jet stream patterns causing global severe weather events; for example 120 mm of rain in 24 hours in Laos and snow in Vietnam and the Middle East such as in Cairo, Egypt and in Syrian refugee camps.

I use a 7 day GFS model to show temperature anomalies and jet stream behaviour; and illustrate how the latitudinal mixing of warm and cold air is further fragmenting the jets leading to even more mixing.

Part two

Continuation, with a few minutes overlap to explain the temperature anomalies and the jet streams. Also discussion on how Earth is capable of very rapid or abrupt temperature changes, for example 5 C in 13 years in PETM and 16 C in a couple decades in a DO oscillation. I think we are undergoing abrupt change now.

Part 3

Closer look at Antarctic jet streams, temperature anomalies, and temperatures.


Part 4

Global view of jet streams, temperatures, and temperature anomalies.

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