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Tit-For-Tat Bombing By India And Pakistan Could Escalate Towards A Nuclear War
27
February, 2019
Two
nuclear powers are currently engaged in a tit for tat military
exchange that could easily escalate into a nuclear war.
On
February 14 a suicide car bomb hit a
police convoy in Pulwama in the Indian controlled part of Kashmir.
The suicide bomber was a local man. The Pakistan based terrorist
group Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) claimed responsibility and uploaded a
video of the attacker.
General
elections in India are due in May and the Hindu-fascist Indian
government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi is under
pressure.
The incident in Kashmir led to violence of Modi followers against
Kashmiri people. Pakistan denied any involvement in the incident and
called for a joint investigation.
After
the suicide attack Modi immediately threatened to retaliate against
Pakistan. He did so yesterday. In an elaborate
operation Indian
fighter jets released stand-off weapons, purchased from Israel,
against an alleged JeM training camp near Balakot. India made
explicit that it hit a "non-military" target.
While
the Indian jets did not enter Pakistan's airspace the target was
within Pakistan's undisputed borders. Small scale ground combat
between Indian and Pakistani at the line of control in Kashmir is
nothing unusual. But the air attack exceed the limits both sides so
far held to.
Pakistan
saw the incident as a failure of its deterrence. India has about 140
nuclear weapons while Pakistan has about 100. Pakistan's conventional
military is inferior to India's. It therefore follows a doctrine of
asymmetric escalation which allows for nuclear strikes in response to
conventional military attacks.
Pakistan
could not leave the hit within its own borders without response. Not
responding would have set
a precedence and
invite further Indian attacks. Earlier today two Pakistani J-17a
jets flew
into the airspace of Indian controlled Kashmir and released bombs
against what
its military claimed to
be a "non military target":
We have no intention of escalation, but are fully prepared to do so if forced into that paradigm. That is why we undertook the action with clear warning and in broad daylight.
Two
rather antique Indian MIG-21 jets scrambled to chase the Pakistani
fighter jets away. They were lured into the Pakistan controlled air
space and both were shot down. Pakistan published pictures of one of
the downed jets and claimed that the other one fell into an Indian
controlled area. An Indian pilot ejected from his plane and was
captured by Pakistani troops who had
trouble (vid)
to keep the locals from lynching him. The captured pilot was
blindfolded and interrogated (vid).
He identified as Wing Commander Abhi Nandan, Service No: 27981, and
did not respond to further questions. His father is said to be a
retried Air Marshal of the Indian air force. The pilot now seems
to be fine (vid).
He thanked the Pakistani military for rescuing him from the mob.
Air
traffic over Pakistan and west India was shut down.
In
a TV speech Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan offered
talks with India and
urged deescalation:
"The sole purpose of our action [today] was to convey that if you can come into our country, we can do the same. That was the only purpose of what we did," he said, referring to the engagement of non-military targets across the LoC.
...
"It is important where we go from here. From here, it is imperative that we use our heads and act with wisdom," he continued.
"All wars are miscalculated, and no one knows where they lead to. World War I was supposed to end in weeks, it took six years. Similarly, the US never expected the war on terrorism to last 17 years.
"I ask India: with the weapons you have and the weapons we have, can we really afford such a miscalculation? If this escalates, things will no longer be in my control or in Modi's," the prime minister continued.
"I once again invite you: we are ready. We understand the grief India has suffered in Pulwama and are ready for any sort of dialogue on terrorism. I reiterate that better sense should prevail.
"Let's sit together and settle this with talks," the prime minister concluded.
China,
Russia and the United States have urged both sides to stand down and
to deescalate the situation.
Meanwhile
India falsely claimed that it shot down a Pakistani F-16 jet.
It
will be up to Modi to take the next step. The captured pilot will
complicate the issue for the Indian government. It must find a way to
get him released.
That
the Indian air force uses the antique MIG-21, which first flew in
1956, against state of the art Pakistani-Chinese F-17 again opens
questions about Modi's corrupt
deal to
buy Rafale jets from France. As we discussed last
September:
In short: The previous government signed a contract with France' Dassault to buy 126 Rafale jets for $10.6 billion. Thirty percent of the price would flow back from Dassault to the Indian state owned aviation manufacturer HAL, which would assemble most of the planes. Modi flew to Paris and changed the deal without the knowledge of his cabinet and the country's military. India will get only 36 Rafales but pay $8.7 billion for them. Thirty percent of the money would flow back to a private Indian company belonging to the largely bankrupt, privately held Reliance Group for unrelated projects and without any know-how transfer. How much Reliance, owned by the once very rich Ambani family, would hand over to Modi and his party is yet unknown. There are calls for Modi to step down which he is unlikely to do. The issue will escalate.
Not
responding to today's attack will let Modi look weak and may well
cost him his reelection. Responding with a new attack on Pakistan
will gravely endanger both countries.
