Showing posts with label el-Nino. Show all posts
Showing posts with label el-Nino. Show all posts

Monday, 15 April 2019

El Nino conditions prevail in the Central Pacific Ocean



NASA sees El Nino conditions prevail in the Central Pacific Ocean

11 April, 2019
NASA sees El Niño conditions prevail in the Central Pacific Ocean
This map shows sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies for the Pacific Basin, shown as degrees Celsius above or below average.Credits: NOAA Climate Prediction Center Credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center
An El Niño that began to form last fall has matured and is now fully entrenched across the Pacific Ocean. Changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) brought about by an El Niño affect the atmosphere, resulting in distinctive changes in the rainfall pattern across the Pacific Basin. These changes show up as anomalies or deviations in NASA's analysis of climatological rainfall.
In a typical El Niño, warmer than average SSTs off the coast of Peru lead to enhanced convection (rising air that condenses and forms clouds and storms) and above average rainfall in the eastern Pacific near to the Equator and lower than average rainfall over the western Pacific.
However, recent estimates of monthly average rainfall and corresponding rainfall anomalies show heavy rain and above-average rainfall located across the Equatorial Central Pacific not the eastern Pacific. This is what is known as El Niño "Modoki" (Japanese for "a similar but different thing") or a Central Pacific El Niño, wherein enhanced SSTs and rainfall occur near the dateline and not near the coast of Peru.
The estimates are generated from the legacy TRMM-based TMPA rainfall product at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. TRMM was the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite that the rainfall product was based on and named for, but TRMM has been succeeded by the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) constellation of satellites. TMPA rainfall is the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis.
As with a traditional El Niño, the effects from a Central Pacific El Niño can still spread to the U.S. Also, clearly visible in the NASA-generated monthly  was an area of heavy rain over the southeast coast of Africa associated with the passage of Cyclone Idai, which devastated the region with torrential flooding.
More information: For more information about El Nino, visit: https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/elnino/definitions
Learn more about NASA's Precipitation measurements: http://pmm.nasa.gov/trmm
Provided by: NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center

Monday, 19 November 2018

NZ media admits to marine heatwave in the Tasman Sea


Unreported by our only ‘serious’ news organisaton (RNZ) this fits into the category of “they know not what they do” (or say).

It is frightening how quickly this is changing.

The el-Nino with a marine heatwave in the Tasman Sea is going to bring much more than nice swimming weather for the clueless hobbits.

Sea temps surprisingly pleasant over the past week, as marine heatwave continues

19 November, 2018

Kiwis brave enough to take a dip recently may have been pleasantly surprised, with surface water in the Tasman Sea several degrees above average in the past week.

Off Northland’s Tutukaka Coast, divers have been treated to warmer than normal sea temperatures, enjoying the abundance of sea life the coast offers.

1 NEWS Meteorologist Dan Corbett says last year’s marine heatwave has kept the waters warmer.

Over the winter we didn't get wind coming from the cold direction, so the water did cool off but it didn’t cool off that much,” he says.

The recent fine weather could also have warmed surface temperatures.

The effects of the warmer water have also had a positive impact on snapper breeding.

But many species are unable to cope with even the slightest shift in their environment.

Last year, the sea surface temperatures in the Southern Tasman sea broke records.

Warmer water also takes up more space and contributes to sea level rise.

We're going to see water temperatures warmer than normal going into the next few months and in some places dryer than normal if El Niño comes to the party," says Corbett.

Sunday, 18 November 2018

The possible effects of an el-Nino


As El Niño sets in, will global biodiversity collapse in 2019?


17 November, 2018


[ Will global biodiversity collapse in 2019? ]

recent study created an original dataset of plant temperature tolerances with a median upper tolerance limit of 23.7°C.

This temperature is about 10°C higher than the temperature in the year 1750.
Only during times of mass extinctions were temperatures that high, such as during the 
PETM, 55.5 million years ago, and the Permian–Triassic extinction event, 252 million years ago, also know as the Great Dying when some 95% of species known from fossils went extinct.

[ image from: How much warmer is it now? ]
 
The study concludes that extinction will already occur far earlier than when upper tolerance levels are reached, as "loss of one species can make more species disappear (a process known as ‘co-extinction’), and possibly bring entire systems to an unexpected, sudden regime shift, or even total collapse."

There was a small group of species with large tolerance limits and remarkable resistance to environmental change, but even they could not survive co-extinctions. In fact, their extinction was abrupt and happened far from their tolerance limits and close to global diversity collapse at around 5 °C of heating.

In the top image on the right, monthly NASA Land+Ocean temperature data 2017-October 2018 are adjusted, and a polynomial trend is added, showing how a 5°C rise in temperature could occur very rapidly, i.e. by September 2019. 
[ El Niño sets in ]

The second image on the right is from an earlier post that contains more background on the adjustment of NASA data and the need for a polynomial trend.

A strong abrupt rise in temperature could be caused by an influx of warm salty water into the Arctic Ocean triggering large eruptions of methane from its seafloor, as discussed in earlier posts such as 
this one.

As El Niño sets in, the odds of a rapid global biodiversity collapse are rising.

Large methane releases from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean could also be triggered by earthquakes. 


Above image shows a Magnitude 6.8 earthquake that occurred near Greenland on November 9, 2018, and subsequent nearby earthquakes measuring M5.2, M4.6 and M4.3 on the Richter scale. There is a danger of isostatic rebound triggering earthquakes in the Arctic Ocean that can in turn destabilize methane hydrates. This is discussed in more detail at 
this page.

Ominously, levels of methane as high as 2787 ppb were recorded on November 15, 2018. As the image below shows, very high methane levels were present over the Arctic Ocean (the magenta color indicating methane levels of 1950 ppb and higher).

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described at the 
Climate Plan.

Links

• Co-extinctions annihilate planetary life during extreme environmental change, by Giovanni Strona and Corey Bradshaw (2018)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-35068-1

• Doomsday by 2021?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/11/doomsday-by-2021.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Seismic Events
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/seismic-events.html

• Can we weather the Danger Zone? 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/07/can-we-weather-the-danger-zone.html

• How much warmer is it now? 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/04/how-much-warmer-is-it-now.html

• What Does Runaway Warming Look Like?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/10/what-does-runaway-warming-look-like.html

• Peaks Matter
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/08/peaks-matter.html

• Warning of mass extinction of species, including humans, within one decade
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/02/warning-of-mass-extinction-of-species-including-humans-within-one-decade.html


Signs from Down-Under

I was hoping today (Sunday) completely off but by evening information was flooding in and I have a feeling of extreme anxiety and dread in my chest


Rapid changes in New Zealand

I have been commenting a lot on how much cooler the Tasman Sea has been compared with last year (apart from close to the Australian coast)

I received the following photo from a friend this evening with the comment:

This doesn't look good. 2.7 - 4.5 C above normal in the Tasman


Being somewhat sceptical that things could change so quickly I decided to check for myself. Sure enough.


Pam and I went out for an early evening drive and we were commenting on how "normal" the skies seemed.

But then we got out of the car to see this.

By the time we got back home to get the camera it had all slightly dissipated and looked like this.


When I posted this on Facebook I got the following message:
" Yep.... that's how it started in California too. Wait until you start seeing all the rainbow colors in the clouds and the sundogs regularly."

I don't know anout "sundogs" but I know about rainbow colours.
As if on cue....
 

MetService meteorologist Tui McInnes said the rainbow was in fact a phenomena called a Circumhorizontal Arc.

"Basically what happens is sunlight enters the cloud and ice crystals in the cloud refract the light and form a rainbow," she said.

"It isn't a necessarily rare phenomenon, however the person observing it has to be standing in the right place at the right time.

"The sun needs to be behind them in order to see the refracted light, and of course you have to have colder clouds that contain ice crystals mixed in with some sunny spells!"

You see! It's got a name so is quite natural!
 
And then, what is this?!!

Silly comment of the day:

"That is so weird, they need to name it so that we don't speculate and start a darn conspiracy theory."
****
Meanwhile, a large tornado ripped through South Canterbury.

It may seem like nothing to Americans but this is totally unprecedented for South Canterbury



..

Video sent to 1 NEWS shows the large funnel of dirt sweeping across farmland just south of Rakaia.

Lily Tworogal, who took one of the videos, says she has never seen anything like it.

Certainly not in New Zealand!” she says.

She was driving north to Christchurch on a family trip when she and her father spotted the tornado.

First it was a swirl of dust and then just grew bigger and bigger,” she says.

***

Meanwhile in Antarctica

Looks like the sea ice holding iceberg A68 is melting fast!


From NASA Worldview 11/17/18


Saturday, 3 November 2018

Australia's heat in the NZ media


Australian media is capable to acknowledging climate change. The New Zealand media dare not mention the elephant in the room.
Australia's NSW east coast now in 'severe' fire danger as mercury soars


2 November, 2014

Drier than expected conditions in Australia have put Sydney and much of the New South Wales (NSW) east coast in severe fire danger, as the city experiences a "low intensity heatwave" on Friday afternoon.

A large mass of hot air moving across the state is driving temperatures up towards 40 degrees in some parts, fanned by strong winds above 30km/h.
 
At the peak, the mercury had hit 38.9 degrees at Sydney Airport, 37.6 degrees in Camden, 37.1 degrees at Observatory Hill and 38.8 degrees at Horsley Park. Statewide, White Cliffs in the far west, notched 43.3 degrees.

The fire at Pierces Creek, near Canberra.

JAMILA TODERAS
The fire at Pierces Creek, near Canberra.
"The system is now also affecting coastal areas, including Sydney, with many areas forecast to see temperatures reach the high thirties on Friday, following a night of significantly above-average minimums," the Bureau of Meteorology said in a statement.

Bureau of Meteorology's manager of severe weather Simon Louis said such high temperatures this early in the season meant Sydney was experiencing a "low intensity heatwave".

Inside the Ku Ring Gai National Park, north of Sydney.

NICK MOIR
Inside the Ku Ring Gai National Park, north of Sydney.
"One thing that our heatwave system does take into account is people's level of acclimatisation," he said.

"We do see that this early in the season, people aren't as acclimatised to the warm conditions, so we can get the heatwave classification at these lower temperature levels."

He said that while temperatures were high, it wouldn't be breaking any November records - though if it had come a couple of days earlier, it would have almost certainly broken October records.

Locals cool off at Bents Basin in western Sydney.

WOLTER PEETERS
Locals cool off at Bents Basin in western Sydney.
The sea breeze that usually cools down the city's eastern suburbs was being held off by strong westerlies, so the city shouldn't expect a cool change on Friday afternoon.
Much of NSW including the metropolitan area can also expect warm conditions to continue overnight, before a cool change on Saturday morning, Louis said.
"Particularly for Sydney, we're really not expecting this cool change to reach … it will just get into the far south west of the state quite late [on Friday] evening. It will be ... early morning [Saturday] until that cooler air gets through."

Saturday morning will be warm, with an overnight low of 24 degrees ahead of a maximum in the city of 30 degrees.

FIRES BURN NEAR CANBERRA AND NEWCASTLE
 
Firefighters were already battling an out-of-control blaze south-west of Canberra on Thursday night and continue to fight it today. The fire is burning erratically at Pierces Creek, about 8km from the nearest suburb.

Early on Friday afternoon, the fire had burnt through 114 hectares, and nearby residents had been urged to activate their bushfire emergency plans. Horses were being moved out of danger and one school was evacuated as a precaution.
 
At 1.45pm, it remained at a watch and act level, but was burning erratically towards the suburb of Tuggeranong. There was no threat to property, and no evacuations have been ordered.

The Rural Fire Service issued a Watch and Act alert about 3pm on Friday afternoon for an out-of-control blaze burning at Freemans Waterhole near Lake Macquarie.

The fire was contained by about 4pm. While there's no threat to property now, smoke is visible from the M1 and drivers are urged to take caution.
 
In the nation's capital, the Bureau is warning of wind speeds of up to 90km/h on Friday afternoon, with average wind speeds at Canberra Airport of up to 65km/h, with a top of 30 degrees.

The NSW Rural Fire Service raised the fire danger to severe for the Southern Ranges, Illawarra, Greater Sydney and Hunter regions at lunchtime on Friday. Total fire bans are in place across those regions.

Wind gusts are expected to reach up to 80km/h in some areas, including Goulburn, adding to the propensity for dangerous bushfires.

"It's important on the first real hot and windy day [of the season] people take five minutes to discuss with their family what to do in case of a fire," RFS Inspector Ben Sheppard told AAP.

The RFS is keeping an eye out on a fire in the Wollemi National Park, north-east of Rylstone. No properties are under threat, however the blaze is expected to grow.
 
Multiple small grassfires are also being reported across the state.
 
On Thursday a number of areas set new maximum temperature records for this time of year, including Goulburn (32.2), Wagga (37.6), Albury (37.2) and Young (34.8).

The warm spell is expected to last until the middle of next week, when much of the state is forecast to receive some rain accompanied by milder temperatures. Sydney may collect as much as 35 millimetres of rain on Wednesday, the bureau predicts.

EXCEPTIONALLY WARM

Australia was "exceptionally warm" last month, with mean temperatures 1.83 degrees above the 1961-90 average, making it the fourth warmest October on record, the bureau said.

Minimum temperatures were the second warmest on record, behind only 2015.
Nationally, rainfall was 11 per cent higher than normal for the month. NSW posted its first above-average month of rain in 2018, collecting 10 per cent more than usual.

Temperatures remained on the warm side for NSW, with the state marking its third warmest October on record for mean temperatures, with readings 2.44 degrees above average.

For the first 10 months of 2018, NSW daytime temperatures are running at a record high.

For Sydney alone, average maximum temperatures were 0.7 degrees below average, the first sub-par reading for any month since March 2012. Minimum temperatures, though, were 1.4 degrees warmer than average, the bureau said.

While Sydney's October rainfall was twice the average at 167.6 millimetres, evaporation rates were almost as high at 160.6 millimetres meaning the rainfall deficient barely budged.

Elsewhere, the big dry has expanded beyond NSW and Queensland, with Tasmania recording its third-driest October on record as rainfall dived 60 per cent below average for the month.

Victoria was also dry, continuing its run this year of below-average monthly rainfall totals with less than half the usual October rain. By mean temperatures, it was also that state's fifth warmest October on record.


Thursday, 25 October 2018

Australia entering a mega-drought predicted to last 20 years

Australia Could Be Entering a MEGA DROUGHT That Lasts 20 Years


20 October, 2018

Australia could be entering a mega-drought predicted to last 20 years, an expert has warned.

Forecaster Kevin Long from Bendigo, Victoria, predicts that the record dry of 1982 is now due to return.
He says autumn and winter periods failed to deliver enough rain to establish crops, meaning the growing season never got under way in many regions.
There are fears that Australia could be entering a mega-drought after an expert predicted a big dry that's expected to last 20 years
Many farmers have been hit hard by the drought in New South Wales and have lost money from flop harvests
With all of NSW being declared drought affected earlier this year, Mr Long said that there will be a significant impact on crops
 
When Jupiter and Saturn are closest together – which will occur next year – it will have a minimising effect on Australia’s rainfall, Mr Long claims.

In the last 50-100 years these two cycles have moved closer and closer together and have finally synchronised,’ Mr Long said.
This synchronisation will then have a greater effect on our rainfall.’
The period 2019-2021 is very likely to be the driest period in the Australian climate for over 200 years.

With all of NSW being declared drought affected earlier this year, Mr Long said that there will be a significant impact on crops.
There’s hardly a crop between the northern and southern border in NSW,’ he explained.
That represents about a third of the eastern half Australia’s food production.
Half of Queensland is in similar situations and the north western half of Victoria is the same.
I don’t think there’ll be any profitable crops grown in half of the Murray Darling Basin this year and the rest of it is going to be very poor.’

The period 2019-2021 is very likely to be the driest period in the Australian climate for over 200 years 

A sheep drinks from what remains at a dried up freshwater dam at a farm in Wandandian, New South Wales.
Areas which did receive a significant amount of rain will have very low soil moisture if they experience a couple of weeks without any decent rain.
Extended periods of dry weather during spring will greatly increase the risk of damaging crops, like the ones that have just occurred during the last week of winter.
Shocking figures revealed that parts of Victoria have lost a third of their usual amount of rain.
Victoria had the wettest decade in 1970 at 627mm average. In the 1980s the average rainfall was 572mm. The 1990s saw 536mm, while 2000/09 experienced 418mm,’ Mr Long said.
The Bureau of Meteorology announced the odds of an El Niño system forming this year are now twice as high as normal.
El Niño events often result in severe droughts, bringing higher temperatures, lower than average rainfall and increased risk of bushfires.
The phenomenon could last as long as two years.
If an El Niño does form in the latter half of 2018, it could prove catastrophic for parched Australian farmers.

Friday, 5 October 2018

The last (and only) time the truth on climate change has been told was in November, 2016


NIWA MUZZLED!
 


Listen to the following.

The following time represents THE ONLY time something  even remotely approaching the truth on climate change as it relates to New Zealand has ever been told



This interview with Paul Henry (who interviewed Guy McPherson TWICE) at the end of 2016 is the only time in the last 7 years that a New Zealand government scientist has been allowed to speak the truth.

When asked Brandalino describes the situation as an emergency and says that warming by carbon emissions Is far more important than factors like el-Nino.

The next week Brandalino appeared on Radio NZ , clearly uncomfortable, hedged and stated that “more researach needed to be done”

It is as clear as day that Chris Brandalino was hauled over the coals by his “superiors” and given a stern warning.

From that day no media outlet, scientist or media outlet has even mentioned climate change as a possible ‘cause’ - even reaching the ridiculous point of when they belatedly mentioned the marine heatwave in the Tasman Sea ascribed it to a la-Nino phenomenon.

At the time I recorded an item on this - below .

See my item from 29 November, 2016  New Zealand scientists MUZZLED


Listen to "Abrupt climate change in New Zealand and the NZ media" on Spreaker.