tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2171175265245997391.post7738420721949336834..comments2024-03-02T23:32:19.314+13:00Comments on Seemorerocks: Near-term human extinctionseemorerockshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09638172074263860001noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2171175265245997391.post-5517508615772717362013-07-02T14:36:43.043+12:002013-07-02T14:36:43.043+12:00Good point, Graham. I have seen NTE advocates tryi...Good point, Graham. I have seen NTE advocates trying to make out that there isn't much difference between a few tens of thousands of humans and no humans. To me, there is a world of difference. There is no such thing as 99.9% extinct. If there are likely to be viable populations left after the big die-off, then I think it makes sense to plan to be among them.<br /><br />Tonysofistekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182009148535883429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2171175265245997391.post-84210422307313083762013-07-02T14:31:40.419+12:002013-07-02T14:31:40.419+12:00Thanks for that broadcast, Alex. It pretty much ma...Thanks for that broadcast, Alex. It pretty much matched my own feelings about it. As I say, I'm glad Guy has now acknowledged the failings of Light's "paper".sofistekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182009148535883429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2171175265245997391.post-84366739583976810062013-07-02T07:36:19.876+12:002013-07-02T07:36:19.876+12:00Our industrial civilization of pleasure seeking, a...Our industrial civilization of pleasure seeking, always more, better, shinier, no matter the reality of its cost, is as if ind civ were a baby who was given one and only one diaper. Rather than face the obvious reality that we only get one diaper (earth), we have now permanently soiled that one and only diaper and so we just have to live in our waste products until they kill us, like bacteria eventually die if confined to a petri dish. Earth will recover...but it will take a bit.Thomas Grizzlehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06726515931901934531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2171175265245997391.post-39287243054896692242013-07-02T07:36:17.803+12:002013-07-02T07:36:17.803+12:00One aspect of all this that is only now just begin...One aspect of all this that is only now just beginning to reach public consciousness is the role of psychopathy in this headlong rush for destruction. It is becoming increasingly clear that psychopaths - whose defining characteristic is a complete absence of conscience - are far more common than the Hollywood axe-killer model would have us believe. In the general population they account for about one in 25, but amongst the World's power brokers - bankers, CEOs and politicians, they are a very high proportion. Not only does our extremely complex technological society offer multiple ecological niches for such individuals (I won't call them people, because that would imply they are human), but the ultra-competitive struggle for power positively selects for psychopaths. I strongly recommend the video "Defence against the Psychopath", available on YouTube.<br />Martin HansonMartin Hansonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00423182472546653997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2171175265245997391.post-59235832756220569502013-07-02T05:43:09.923+12:002013-07-02T05:43:09.923+12:00In my Radio Ecoshock show "Will Humans Go Ext...In my Radio Ecoshock show "Will Humans Go Extinct Soon" I show the serious flaws in Malcolm Light's paper predicting human extinction by the 2030's. Malcolm is a petroleum geologist whose solutions is to open the Arctic to massive drilling for natural gas (more fossil fuels as a solutions to fossil fuel burning).<br /><br />In my blog for that program I also quote a German biologist and expert in extinction who explains it takes much longer than that for species to become extinct.<br /><br />While I checked all McPherson's sources, and found them correct - NONE of them predicted near-term human extinction. It appears to me that Guy McPherson, along with journalist Oliver Tickell, made that leap. There is as yet no peer-reviewed published scientific paper in the world that suggests, much less "proves" humans risk extinction before 2050, or even at all.<br /><br />I think we can agree we are already in a world of trouble, with much worse to come. There will be mass die-offs and suffering. But my opinion is, and it's all a matter of opinion (not science yet) at this point: humans will continue to struggle to adapt for at least a century or two, if not much longer.<br /><br />Thanks for this thoughtful blog post.<br /><br />Alex Smith<br />Radio Ecoshock<br />http://www.ecoshock.info/2013/06/will-humans-go-extinct-soon.htmlAlex Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11141662062651853725noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2171175265245997391.post-14623881783433335522013-07-01T21:30:27.286+12:002013-07-01T21:30:27.286+12:00Too much tho reply to quickly, but one thought.......Too much tho reply to quickly, but one thought....If you are concerned about Wasdell's science credentials you should try http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSsPHytEnJM. In particular comments by Natalia Shakhova, who IS a climate scientist and talks about methane emissions.seemorerockshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09638172074263860001noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2171175265245997391.post-51228425182356918152013-07-01T21:16:33.197+12:002013-07-01T21:16:33.197+12:00...
I like (in a perverted sort of way) Wasdell&#......<br /><br />I like (in a perverted sort of way) Wasdell's synopsis too. But I don't know enough about the science to know if Wasdell, who isn't a climate scientist, has got it right. I've asked a working climate scientist for his view on the videos. He said he will check it out but it may not be for a while as he's pretty busy right now.<br /><br />John Michael Greer eventually clarified his take on "NTE" (McPherson doesn't use the acronym and I tend to avoid it also, given the import of total extinction, unless it's referring to the cult of NTE). It is that NTE may take on a life of its own regardless of what the science may say about it (including science that might show NTE just isn't on the cards). We might get something analogous to the Mayan calendar fiasco of last year. I agree that this might happen although now Guy has acknowledged that the Malcolm Light paper is flawed maybe the extinction date of 2031.8 will now be abandoned. I wouldn't jump to conclusions about what John Michael Greer doesn't understand. His problem is not that he doesn't understand the mechanism (at least up to intelligent layman level) but that he refuses to think that it is just possible that this time it's different. He seems to think that there is nothing new under the sun and that history can tell us pretty accurately about what to expect; all we have to do is find a society or civilisation that has some similar characteristics and, BINGO, we know it will take 2 centuries for collapse and that the environment won't get really, really bad.<br /><br />There has never been a globally interconnected civilisation as complex as this within a global environment that is as stressed as this one but that doesn't faze John Michael Greer or his sidekick Bill Pulliam. The only examples of severe environmental change that they could come up with from the past are either from before humans existed or before humans discovered civilisation. Anyway, I think it's safe to assume that it is different this time, for all sorts of reasons.<br /><br />Regarding permaculture, I don't think it's as easy as assuming permaculture can't take such an extreme swing in temperatures. I remember, a long time ago when I was part of the problem (though I still am, to a much lesser degree), I was in Orlando, Florida. It was freezing early in the morning - the car windscreen was frosted up. By the afternoon, it was hot. Not as hot as 100F but probably high 80s. That was in the space of 6 or 7 hours, not 50. Anyway, many permaculture systems (food forests, chinampas, even bio-intensive veges) do form their own micro-climate. In a mature food forest, you wouldn't see those wild swings within the micro-climate. Permaculture systems are far more resilient than conventional food systems. Not that we should be complacent; prolonged such temperature swings would eventually cause too great a stress on the species that thrived in a different climate. But if any system can get to grips with such huge change, it would be a permaculture system, in my opinion.<br /><br />Lastly, on the subject of uncertainty. For me, certainty of near term extinction would make (remaining life) easy, at least in one respect. I'd know that it wouldn't matter what I did so I might very well decide to party again, or at least live a conventional life, which would be much easier than what I'm trying to do now. The uncertainty means I'm forced to follow my conscience and try to simplify my life as much as possible, as well as trying to be as self-sufficient and sustainable as I'm mentally and physically able to do.<br /><br />(Michael, your wife and mine would probably get on well!)sofistekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182009148535883429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2171175265245997391.post-92360681736726862013-07-01T21:15:37.195+12:002013-07-01T21:15:37.195+12:00Although I acknowledge almost everything you'v...Although I acknowledge almost everything you've mentioned and, personally, view the situation in roughly the same way, I think it's hard to put such a forceful case to those who haven't even reached the first rung on the ladder of awareness (i.e. most people).<br /><br />The Arctic sea ice was looking like it would take another couple of years, with this year's extent just tracking at the bottom of the two sigma range, rather than well below it, as it was last year. However, it has just taken a sharp turn downwards. This happened later than last year so maybe Wasdell won't get it right about an ice free 2013. Not that that is anything to dance about but, if it doesn't happen this year, it may be another example of how the extreme predictions just never work out (just as any prediction doesn't). <br /><br />What the timeline will be for both Arctic sea ice melt or for human extinction is unknown. I think a strong case can be made for a very bleak future without invoking extremes of predictions and estimates. We know that the earth, as a whole, is accelerating its warming and that needs to be brought more to the fore, to counteract the idiots who fixate on the surface temperature, claiming that warming has stopped (even though the surface hasn't warmed enough to get to a balance between energy in and energy out, yet). We know that the extinction rate is many times the background rate (or, at least, the lowest, most conservative, estimates show that) but we don't know that it is 200 species per day. That 200 per day isn't even the highest estimate but it is an old one that just can't be confirmed from observations. Isn't 10 per day bad enough, given that it should be less than that per year?<br /><br />Guy does tend to pick the worst projections and take them as fact. They may turn out to be, of course, but people don't need to be scared by extinction to realise that we've done terrible damage to the biosphere that supports us. Indeed, it may be counter productive, whether people believe it or not - if they do then why do anything? If they don't, then why believe any of the bad projections? I believe the situation is far worse than the official line but I can't make that case and don't think I could if I understood all of the science. Talking of which, as Guy himself says, most feedbacks are poorly understood, so I don't think we should be assuming that all positive feedbacks cause runaway warming. We also shouldn't assume that this industrial civilisation won't collapse quickly (within 10-15 years) or what that will mean for global warming.<br /><br />...sofistekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182009148535883429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2171175265245997391.post-38010269013923431932013-07-01T01:26:07.727+12:002013-07-01T01:26:07.727+12:00Good one!
I've never been able to confront re...Good one!<br /><br />I've never been able to confront reality in any way other than head on with eyes open. It's just how I'm put together.<br /><br />It's funny...I look back at 30+ years of writing and recording songs and albums, and the majority of them basically were warnings: "THIS is what will happen if you continue to do THAT" was the underlying message.<br /><br />Now that we're in the throes of experiencing the effects of our behavior, I may have to start writing songs about girls and cars or something...John Ludihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11732400759825359983noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2171175265245997391.post-48012912931340247572013-07-01T00:22:08.874+12:002013-07-01T00:22:08.874+12:00One of the coolest things is having the ability to...One of the coolest things is having the ability to pretty much watch this as it happens. And yet, most people choose to pay little attention. Freakin' amazing. <br /><br />This is not a comment on your work Mr. Sosebee. Many of us have done as much as we could, some of us for a really long time, and yet Empire rolls on, little phased by our puny efforts. Karl Khttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11099636431118115124noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2171175265245997391.post-83442245348061743072013-07-01T00:18:25.509+12:002013-07-01T00:18:25.509+12:00First time reader of your blog. Your calling out ...First time reader of your blog. Your calling out JMG for neglecting the scientific basis of Dr. McPherson is right on the money. I am sure he knows better, but just can't give admit it.<br /><br />Karl<br />Karl Khttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11099636431118115124noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2171175265245997391.post-55085194252336367122013-07-01T00:00:10.021+12:002013-07-01T00:00:10.021+12:00'NTE for most "civilised" humans...&...'NTE for most "civilised" humans...'<br /><br />Not to be picky, but extinction is something that either happens or it doesn't. A species can be close to extinction but it can't be partly extinct. NTE is all or nothing: if there are any of us left, it won't have happened.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02248349730467265463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2171175265245997391.post-30908477625673082262013-06-30T20:59:52.983+12:002013-06-30T20:59:52.983+12:00I'm with you all the way brother! We soeak to ...I'm with you all the way brother! We soeak to those with "little dust in their eye"seemorerockshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09638172074263860001noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2171175265245997391.post-80102573865966871592013-06-30T20:56:22.878+12:002013-06-30T20:56:22.878+12:00"What about looking reality directly in the e..."What about looking reality directly in the eye - without blinking."<br /><br />Hi Robin - I think about these issues daily and often I wish that I could put my head in the sand. My wife asks me daily: Why don't you just find things you and enjoy and let go? <br /><br />I don't have a good answer for her because I don't know what compels me to perpetually watch this slow-motion train-wreck. It's horrible but I can't take my eyes off it. Sometimes I wish it would all end in a blaze of light but then I realize that it's going to be death by a thousand cuts so like an obsessive-compulsive I watch and document each cut and bruise on the way down.<br /><br />Thanks for keeping an eye on this for all of us!Michael Sosebeehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07424806231591776967noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2171175265245997391.post-65873006785165340832013-06-30T20:01:40.921+12:002013-06-30T20:01:40.921+12:00I have no doubt that you are right. It's also ...I have no doubt that you are right. It's also called "infinite growth on a finite planet". <br /> I would still argue that climate change is a bigger factor than pollution and habitat destruction - but taken together they will kill us off. Why not add nuclear to the list? Quite simply we won't be able to feed ourselves.seemorerockshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09638172074263860001noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2171175265245997391.post-81921115535140883412013-06-30T19:44:33.423+12:002013-06-30T19:44:33.423+12:00NTE is pretty much a given.
It's time to start...NTE is pretty much a given.<br />It's time to start acknowledging The 6th Mass Extinction. Climate change is only a part of this. As eminent biologist Prof.EO Wilson frames it, extinction is due to a series of impacts:<br /><br />H I P P O G <br />Habitat destruction<br />Invasive species<br />Population pressure from growth driven "civilisation"<br />Pollution from industrialism<br />Over harvesting of food species<br />Global climate change/warming<br /><br />The real underlying issue is not climate change, or peak everything, or The 6th Mass Extinction. These are simply the powerful symptoms. It is the insane dominant culture aka global industrial "civilisation" aka Empire. <br /><br />Until this is realised at a deep level, everything stays the same, and collapse of 'the economy' is a given, collapse of the biosphere is a given too, and that means NTE for most "civilised" humans...<br /><br /><br /><br />Ted Howardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10120433652983909267noreply@blogger.com