Posts
Headed
for Disaster: US
banks are running out of cash
This Week: Medical Collapse,
Food Shortages, and
Anarchy, Begin . . .
The events this week will be so many, and so fast, that things can go downhill really quick. There will be A LOT of fake news, from governments.
We are on the last legs, as a society, and the governments will have their last stand this week, in postponing the panic. It might work, or not, but it will be irrelevant, because they cannot avoid SHTF for long, probably, in many countries, SHTF will start this week anyway.
This week, we can expect things to unfold on two main paths :
- widespread epidemic, with collapsed hospitals and generalized panic.
- full on martial law, before the epidemic is widespread.
Regardless, the panic will start in the Western countries.
When this happens, nobody can predict the outcome, short or long term.
What can be predicted, and what I can predict, are the following:
1. In Europe and the U.S., the number of infected people, the REAL NUMBER, is in TENS OF MILLIONS. In other words, the virus reached the point where NOTHING, no matter what, will be able to stop it.
*(Lock-downs are necessary, and even martial law, in order to slow down the contagion. Sadly, the tens of millions ALREADY infected across the U.S. and Europe will simply be too much for the society to cope with, by the end of this month).
**(Governments reacting too late, and too soft. When martial law will come, in Europe and the U.S., will make things worse, not better. This is NOT our 10 years pandemic, that can be dealt with. This is a 100 years pandemic, that will most likely, lead to a societal collapse, in a matter of weeks).
***(As I predicted many weeks ago, the worst case scenario is a widespread global pandemic taking place simultaneously with an economic and financial collapse. This worst case scenario is rapidly becoming the only probable scenario).
2. There will be shortages of food and basic necessities, and these shortages will be felt in a matter of days, in certain countries, and by the end of the months, in most countries.
3. The healthcare systems will collapse this week, in most countries in Europe and the U.S. War-like triage will start this week in Europe, and by the end of next week, in the whole U.S.
4. Power outages will start in April, once SHTF will be full-blown in many, MANY countries across the world.
5. At least ONE country will fall to partial anarchy this week. At least 10 countries will be under martial law this week. Tons of social protests will take place this week, mostly small scale, and containable. But it will be just the start.
6.The peak of the first wave will be reached in May/June, in most countries, but the second wave will start in September/Orctober.Sadly, this peak will be the small one, and if the society will somehow be able not to totally collapse (it will at least partially collapse, the big cities will be virtually no-man's land), it will collapse in November, when the second wave will be the knock-out blow, to a society already on its knees.
7. Medical staffing will suffer big losses in human lives, making things worse each day, every day. The armed forces and the police forces are already affected by the virus, and will be much more affected in the coming weeks, with society losing the last line of defense in front of anarchy and criminality.
8.Some (hopefully) good news. I hope that my numbers are wrong, and the number of already infected people is much lower, making the lock-downs and even martial law drastically slowing down the contagion. If so, WE CAN, as society, go past 3-4 weeks of hardship (2020-type of hardship), and be able to keep things relatively normal.
My advice, for anyone who is reading this : the best thing to do now, is simply to avoid, 100%, ANY TYPE OF CONTACT.
If you still think you need to buy some more extras, do it PROPERLY: best mask you can have, eye protection, gloves, and , if possible, any sort of clothing that can be disinfected outside (even rain coats work).
Prepare for the worst, even if, as we all hope, will not happen. If this thing just fizzles out, at least you will have the knowledge of what to do when the real deal is taking place. Which can happen anytime.
People are scared...but STILL not scared enough. Almost EVERYONE in the European and U.S. cities, is NOT wearing masks, is not wearing gloves, is STILL riding the fucking subway, still going to work.
This is why I am advocating for DICTATORIAL MEASURES, because I know for a fact, that people are STUPID, people still eat the TV shit (just a flu, 80% aren't affected, young people are virtually unaffected) and they ACT like this is nothing, making the contagion (which is already widespread) spread even more, leading to massive shocks for hospitals in a week or so, basically KILLING people, because there is not bed and no free medical staff.
But when facing a pandemic, with a western population that is stupid, with western governments that are STILL propping the fucking economy instead stopping the pandemic, being unable to realize that this is not SARS, or MERS, or Ebola, or other joke, I know that we are lost. God Will-it that lock-downs and martial law will work, because clearly, the governments CANNOT (or WILL NOT) help us.
Get ready.
Things are about to go medieval.
Received
this from a Listener/Reader in Tennessee regarding what happened to
him when he tried to ship a package to his mom in Indiana:
"This
is from Tennessee and Indiana. Monday 10 am tried
to mail packages
to parents in Indiana through Fedex or ups or dhl here in
Tennessee. I
was told that all package shipping would be stopped where it is
midnight tonight Monday 16th.
I
asked even if i overnighted it. He said your wasting your money
as it will be sitting in a warehouse for the foreseeable future.
My
mother in Indiana tried today as well to send me a package. She
was told the same thing.
While
i was talking to the shipping guy in Tennessee he said they were also
told that interstates will be shut down by friday. Now
whether that means interstate travel or all interstate traffic i
dont know.
A
Friend has a pilot he knows through southwest airlines and they were
told to be at the home area of operations by midnight wednesday.
They
may be grounding all domestic flight by wednesday at Midnight.
Stay safe and get the word out.
This
is the first I have heard about package deliveries being stopped
nationwide. Thought you should know. . .
Goldman
Sachs slashed its oil forecast on Tuesday as the COVID-19 outbreak
continues to pressure demand.
“Demand
losses across the complex are now unprecedented,” Goldman’s
global head of commodities research Jeffrey Currie wrote in a note to
clients Tuesday. The firm said that oil use has fallen by eight
million barrels per day as the coronavirus has led to a near
standstill in travel, among other things.
Goldman
now sees U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude and international
benchmark Brent crude both averaging $20 per barrel in the second
quarter. Earlier on Tuesday the firm said WTI would average $22,
before revising the forecast to $20 just a few hours later.
Goldman
has cut estimates multiple times in the last few weeks. The firm
previously lowered its target for WTI to $29 and Brent to $30 after
the breakdown in OPEC talks earlier in March.
WTI
settled at $28.70 on Monday, so the new target implies an additional
30% downside ahead. This would be on top of WTI’s 53% drop this
year. Goldman’s Brent target is 33% below the contract’s Monday
settle of $30.05.
The
drop in demand comes as powerhouse producers Saudi Arabia and Russia
get set to ramp up production beginning April 1, which is when the
OPEC+ production cuts currently in place expire.
The
firm said that the sudden drop-off in demand, which began in January
when the virus started hitting Chinese fuel demand, aided the price
war that’s broken out between OPEC and its allies, which includes
Russia.
“While
it is tempting to view the COVID-19 oil demand shock and the oil
‘price war’ as separate events, we like to emphasize that OPEC+
pursuing a market share strategy is simply a second-order effect of
the virus made possible by extremely weak demand, pushing the market
far down the global supply curve,” Currie said.
Goldman
said that the virus will likely lead to far worse outcomes than
previously thought — even below estimates from just a month ago —
for both the commodities and equity market from just last month.
On
Sunday, Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist, lowered his
first-quarter GDP growth forecast to zero from 0.7%. The economist
also sees a 5% contraction in the second quarter, followed by a sharp
snapback for the remainder of the year.
But
unlike equities, which the firm believes will swiftly rebound, oil
will likely stay lower for longer.
“While
financial markets are forward-looking and are likely to rebound once
the contagion stabilizes, commodity markets are spot assets and must
clear the surpluses developing today from weak demand and rising
supply,” Currie said.
Longer
term, however, Goldman believes lower prices will lead to a
beneficial re-balancing of the market.
“The
industry is likely to emerge in a much more healthy position with
many of the zombie companies that were a dead weight on returns
removed,” the firm said.
US Equity Futures Are Plunging... Again
It is unclear what the immediate catalyst is this time - aside from the fact that we are now outside of the stock-trading-machines reach - but US equity futures are plunging in early Asia trading.
Dow futures are down 650 points...
Erasing most of the day's gains...
"...and suddenly millions of bailout-demanding voices cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced. I fear something terrible has happened."
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