Seemorerocks: US recession alert

Friday 16 August 2019

US recession alert

US recession alert: Trump panic as shock figures released - ‘On borrowed time'
THE US could be heading for recession, an economist has warned, with shock figures spelling trouble for Donald Trump’s economy.

The Express,
15 August, 2019

The gap between US two-year and 10-year Treasury yields - a closely watched metric for signs of a slowdown - fell to less than a basis point after shrinking on Tuesday to its narrowest since June 2007. An inverted yield curve has sparked panic among investors, CNBC has reported. Bank of America technical strategist Stephen Suttmeier said the US was now on “borrowed time”.

Mr Suttmeier said: “The US equity market is on borrowed time after the yield curve inverts.

"However, after an initial post-inversion dip, the S&P 500 can rally meaningfully prior to a bigger US recession related drawdown.

“While yield curve inversions can be a leading indicator of economic weakness or recession, they are an early warning sign.

“Going back to 1956 it has taken between eight and 24 months for a US recession to start after a yield curve inversion.”

Dow futures dropped 200 due to the worrying prediction.
Equity investors on Wall Street and Asia had cheered earlier when US President Donald Trump pushed back a September 1 deadline for new tariffs on remaining Chinese imports.
The S&P 500, which had fallen 1% on Monday, rose 1.5% overnight, sending Asian stocks outside Japan up 0.6%.

Benchmarks in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Tokyo all mirrored the surge in US stocks.

But the momentum ebbed in Europe, as optimism faded that Mr Trump's move meant tensions were easing and Germany's slowdown showed the damage already done by the trade war.
Last month another economist also warned the US was heading for recession.

Ian Winer, an economist and author, warned Mr Trump’s administration was “preparing for the worst”.

He said: “Technically we’re not in a recession. I imagine we will be by Q1 or Q2 of 2020, just based on growth slowing.

“What’s interesting is that you’ve got the Executive Branch, the Federal Reserve and even Congress approving this debt sealing increase, all acting like something bad is coming because they’re all preparing for the worst.