More reasons why Dr.MIchael E.Mann is WRONG

Many reasons to proove Dr.Michael Mann WRONG

Yesterday, I posted a video taking strong exception to Dr.Michael E. Mann's attack piece.

Mostly the responses have confirmed my own thoughts, although this one was interesting.

I love how Seemorerocks97 on YT ridicules Mann's work by saying ironically and pathologically that Mann's work looks "unscientific" yet Seemorerocks97 aka Robin's Westenra's own work is full of data holes, not scholarly, not peer-reviewed, not part of any larger dialogue, full of overlooked factors, has no expert oversight, and completely lacks any coherent science whatsoever!


--- Dharma Tiger

Here, again is a "scientific paper" from the ever-hopeful Dr. Mann

With one exception (the article about the president of Finland) every one of these articles is from just ONE day.

Should I have titled this 1001 reasons why Dr. Mann is wrong.

Geologyof the Shelves surrounding the New Siberian Islands, Russian Arctic

It’s interesting to note that this latest data on the aerosol masking effect is from Israel, the first country in the world where global dimming effects were calculated using pan evaporation field tests, no bloody modeling here
---Kevin Hester

We need to rethink everything we know about global warming

Air pollution.

Credit: © darksoul72 / Fotolia

For a while now, the scientific community has known that global warming is caused by humanmade emissions in the form of greenhouse gases and global cooling by air pollution in the form of aerosols.

However, new research published in Science by Hebrew University of Jerusalem Professor Daniel Rosenfeld shows that the degree to which aerosols cool the earth has been grossly underestimated, necessitating a recalculation of climate change models to more accurately predict the pace of global warming.

Aerosols are tiny particles that float in the air. They can form naturally (e.g., desert dust) or artificially (e.g., smoke from coal, car exhaust). Aerosols cool our environment by enhancing cloud cover that reflect the sunlight (heat) back to space.

As for the first, clouds form when wind rises and cools. However, cloud composition is largely determined by aerosols. The more aerosol particles a shallow cloud contains, the more small water droplets it will hold. Rain happens when these droplets bind together. Since it takes longer for small droplets to bind together than it does for large droplets, aerosol-filled or "polluted" clouds contain more water, live in the sky longer (while they wait for droplets to bind and rain to fall, after which the clouds will dissipate) and cover a greater area. All the while, the aerosol-laden clouds reflect more solar energy back into space, thereby cooling the Earth's overall temperature.

To what extent do aerosols cool down our environment? To date, all estimates were unreliable because it was impossible to separate the effects of rising winds which create the clouds, from the effects of aerosols which determine their composition. Until now.

Rosenfeld and his colleague Yannian Zhu from the Meteorological Institute of Shaanxi Province in China developed a new method that uses satellite images to separately calculate the effect of vertical winds and aerosol cloud droplet numbers. They applied this methodology to low-lying cloud cover above the world's oceans between the Equator and 40S. With this new method, Rosenfeld and his colleagues were able to more accurately calculate aerosols' cooling effects on the Earth's energy budget. And, they discovered that aerosols' cooling effect is nearly twice higher than previously thought.

However, if this is true then how come the earth is getting warmer, not cooler? For all of the global attention on climate warming, aerosol pollution rates from vehicles, agriculture and power plants is still very high. For Rosenfeld, this discrepancy might point to an ever deeper and more troubling reality. "If the aerosols indeed cause a greater cooling effect than previously estimated, then the warming effect of the greenhouse gases has also been larger than we thought, enabling greenhouse gas emissions to overcome the cooling effect of aerosols and points to a greater amount of global warming than we previously thought," he shared.

The fact that our planet is getting warmer even though aerosols are cooling it down at higher rates than previously thought brings us to a Catch-22 situation: Global efforts to improve air quality by developing cleaner fuels and burning less coal could end up harming our planet by reducing the number of aerosols in the atmosphere, and by doing so, diminishing aerosols' cooling ability to offset global warming.

According to Rosenfeld, another hypothesis to explain why Earth is getting warmer even though aerosols have been cooling it down at an even a greater rate is a possible warming effect of aerosols when they lodge in deep clouds, meaning those 10 kilometers or more above the Earth. Israel's Space Agency and France's National Centre for Space Studies (CNES) have teamed up to develop new satellites that will be able to investigate this deep cloud phenomenon, with Professor Rosenfeld as its principal investigator.

Either way, the conclusion is the same. Our current global climate predictions do not correctly take into account the significant effects of aerosols on clouds on Earth's overall energy balance. Further, Rosenfeld's recalculations mean fellow scientists will have to rethink their global warming predictions -- which currently predict a 1.5 to 4.5-degree Celsius temperature increase by the end of the 21st century -- to provide us a more accurate diagnosis -- and prognosis -- of the Earth's climate.

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Story Source:

Materials provided by The Hebrew University of Jerusalem. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

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Journal Reference:

1. Daniel Rosenfeld, Yannian Zhu, Minghuai Wang, Youtong Zheng, Tom Goren, Shaocai Yu. Aerosol-driven droplet concentrations dominate coverage and water of oceanic low level clouds. Science, 2019; eaav0566 DOI: 10.1126/science.aav0566

Arctic sea ice loss in past linked to abrupt climate events

A new study on ice cores shows that reductions in sea ice in the Arctic in the period between 30-100,000 years ago led to major climate events. During this period, Greenland temperatures rose by as much as 16 degrees Celsius. The results are published this week (Monday 11 February) in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).


A team from British Antarctic Survey (BAS), University of Cambridge and University of Birmingham studied data from ice cores drilled in Greenland. They looked at oxygen isotopes and compared them to climate models run on the ARCHER supercomputer1. From this they determined that sea ice changes were massively significant in past climate change events in the North Atlantic. These periods, called Dansgaard-Oeschger events2, are some of the fastest and largest abrupt climate changes ever recorded. During some of these events, Greenland temperatures are likely to have increased by 16 degrees Celsius in less than a decade.

President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose theWorld’

It is fitting that we are meeting here in Arkhangelsk, a historical meeting place between the East and West. I approach the event in this spirit: Promoting a meeting of minds with a firm belief that the Arctic will indeed remain a “Territory of Dialogue,” said President Niinistö during his opening remarks at “The Arctic: Territory of Dialogue” forum in Arkhangelsk in North Russia. “My starting point today is the growing threat of climate change. Tackling this challenge is crucial if we want to ensure that the Arctic remains the place it is today. But the issue is of global significance: If we lose the Arctic, we lose the whole world.

Niinistö continued saying that “global warming is a well-documented fact.” “Last year was the warmest year ever in the history of monitoring the Earth’s temperature – and already the third record-warm year in a row.”

“No one can escape the effects of global warming. At the moment, the problem is most acute in the North. The former UN General Secretary Ban Ki-moon has called the Arctic “the Ground Zero for climate change.” The average temperature has risen twice as fast in the Arctic as in most other regions. The summer ice cover reached an all-time low in 2016 and recent reports indicate that this winter has not fully rectified the situation.”

RAINMAKES METHANE FROM THAWING BOGS GO ‘BONKERS’
Researchers have uncovered a new reason for increased methane emissions from a thawing permafrost bog in Alaska: early spring rainfall

Arctic permafrost is thawing as the Earth warms due to climate change. In some cases, scientists predict that this thawing soil will release increasing amounts of methane—a potent greenhouse gas—that is known to trap more heat in our planet’s atmosphere.

The rainfall warms up the bog and promotes the growth of plants and methane-producing microbes. The team shows that early precipitation in 2016 warmed the bog about three weeks earlier than usual, and increased the bog’s methane emissions by 30 percent compared to previous years. These results appear in Geophysical Research Letters.

“In general, the chance of generating methane goes up with increased rainfall because soils get waterlogged. But what we see here is different,” says corresponding author Rebecca Neumann, an associate professor in the University of Washington department of civil and environmental engineering.

“Early rainfall sent a slog of warm water moving into our bog. We believe microbes in the bog got excited because they were warmed up, so they released nutrients from the soil that allowed more plant growth. Methane production and emission are tightly linked with soil temperature and plant growth.

“Our results emphasize that these permafrost regions are sensitive to the thermal effects of rain, and because we’re anticipating that these environments are going to get wetter in the future, we could be seeing increases in methane emissions that we weren’t expecting.”

Verystrong atmospheric methane growth in the four years 2014‐2017:Implications for the Paris Agreement

Abstract
Atmospheric methane grew very rapidly in 2014 (12.7±0.5 ppb/yr), 2015 (10.1±0.7 ppb/yr), 2016 (7.0± 0.7 ppb/yr) and 2017 (7.7±0.7 ppb/yr), at rates not observed since the 1980s. The increase in the methane burden began in 2007, with the mean global mole fraction in remote surface background air rising from about 1775 ppb in 2006 to 1850 ppb in 2017. Simultaneously the 13C/12C isotopic ratio (expressed as δ13CCH4) has shifted, in a new trend to more negative values that have been observed worldwide for over a decade. The causes of methane's recent mole fraction increase are therefore either a change in the relative proportions (and totals) of emissions from biogenic and thermogenic and pyrogenic sources, especially in the tropics and sub‐tropics, or a decline in the atmospheric sink of methane, or both. Unfortunately, with limited measurement data sets, it is not currently possible to be more definitive. The climate warming impact of the observed methane increase over the past decade, if continued at >5 ppb/yr in the coming decades, is sufficient to challenge the Paris Agreement, which requires sharp cuts in the atmospheric methane burden. However, anthropogenic methane emissions are relatively very large and thus offer attractive targets for rapid reduction, which are essential if the Paris Agreement aims are to be attained.


Plain Language Summary

The rise in atmospheric methane (CH4), which began in 2007, accelerated in the past four years. The growth has been worldwide, especially in the tropics and northern mid‐latitudes. With the rise has come a shift in the carbon isotope ratio of the methane. The causes of the rise are not fully understood, and may include increased emissions and perhaps a decline in the destruction of methane in the air. Methane's increase since 2007 was not expected in future greenhouse gas scenarios compliant with the targets of the Paris Agreement, and if the increase continues at the same rates it may become very difficult to meet the Paris goals. There is now urgent need to reduce methane emissions, especially from the fossil fuel industry.

Undersea gases could superheat the planet

The world's oceans could harbor an unpleasant surprise for global warming, based on new research that shows how naturally occurring carbon gases trapped in reservoirs atop the seafloor escaped to superheat the planet in prehistory.

Scientists say events that began on the ocean bottom thousands of years ago so disrupted the Earth's atmosphere that it melted away the ice age. Those new findings challenge a long-standing paradigm that ocean water alone regulated carbon dioxide in the atmosphere during glacial cycles. Instead, the study shows geologic processes can dramatically upset the carbon cycle and cause global change.


For today's world, the findings could portend an ominous development. The undersea carbon reservoirs released greenhouse gas to the atmosphere as oceans warmed, the study shows, and today the ocean is heating up again due to manmade global warming.


If undersea carbon reservoirs are upset again, they would emit a huge new source of greenhouse gases, exacerbating climate change. Temperature increases in the ocean are on pace to reach that tipping point by the end of the century. For example, a big carbon reservoir beneath the western Pacific near Taiwan is already within a few degrees Celsius of destabilizing.


Moreover, the phenomenon is a threat unaccounted for in climate model projections. Undersea carbon dioxide reservoirs are relatively recent discoveries and their characteristics and history are only beginning to be understood.



Those findings come from a new research paperproduced by an international team of Earth scientists led by USC and published in January in the journal Environmental Research Letters.

RISE IN METHANE IS ACCELERATING

The graph shows July 1983 through October 2018 monthly global methane means at sea level, with added trend.

Note that higher methane means can occur at higher altitude than at sea level. On Sep 3, 2018, methane means as high as 1905 ppb were recorded at 307 mb, an altitude at which some of the strongest growth in methane has occurred.

From the post 'CO₂ levels reach another record high', at:

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/02/co2-levels-reach-another-record-high.html