Monday, 24 December 2018

A report on Antarctic sea ice


Sam Carana, via Facebook

Albedo change is one of the feedbacks that many, including the IPCC, have yet to come to grips with. Many had hoped that albedo loss in the Arctic could somehow be compensated for by albedo gain in the Antarctic.

The IPCC (in AR5, WG1) found a "significant increase in total annual mean sea ice extent that is very likely in the range of 1.2 to 1.8 % per decade between 1979 and 2012 (0.13 to 0.20 million km² per decade) (very high confidence)". End 2014, sea ice extent around Antarctica had grown even larger.

However, things have changed dramatically from then on. Antarctic sea ice extent was almost 4 million km² smaller at the end of 2016 than it was at the end of 2014. Even worse, extent by the end of 2018 may get even smaller, as illustrated by the image.

Such a fall in sea ice extent could make a difference of 1.3 W/m² in radiative forcing (RF). The corresponding global temperature rise could be more than 1°C (or 1.8°F). By comparison, the total RF of all carbon dioxide emitted by people from 1750-2011 was 1.68 W/m².

On Dec. 22, 2018, Antarctic sea ice extent was 7.711 million km² . What do you think it will be by Dec. 31, 2018?

From the post 'Carbon dioxide emissions are rising', at:

This is how things look at the South Pole today.   Temperatures are in the minus twenties in the interior,

Temperatures are hovering around zero on the coast line on the Ross Sea and East Antarctica

No automatic alt text available. 

Here are the temperature anomalies for Antarctica today;

Here is the sea ice extent from the NSIDC

And the sea ice concentration, which is well down

And the sea ice concentration according to the US Navy site

And the sea ice thickness

1 comment:

  1. Boycott and sanction the U.S.A. until they step up and take the lead in curbing Climate Change!