Monday, 10 December 2018

The Tasman is heating up again

Scientists watching rising Tasman Sea temperatures – again

10 December, 2018

The Tasman Sea is heating up again, a year after the rare "marine heatwave" which brought New Zealand's hottest summer on record.

The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) says it is "keeping a close eye" on the Tasman's rising temperature.

The marine heatwave that contributed to the recent scorching summer was rare. The previous event was more than 80 years earlier, during the 1934-35 summer.

Niwa principal climate scientist Dr Brett Mullan said on Monday that parts of the Tasman were already about 2 degrees Celsius warmer than average.

"Currently, sea-surface temperatures in the Tasman are much warmer than normal, and the region of warmth extends well south of Campbell Island.

"However, the warm anomalies are not as extreme as at the end of 2017."

In last summer's marine heatwave, a large area of the Tasman Sea immediately offshore of the West Coast was about 2C hotter than normal right through December, January and February.

Niwa reported in March that parts of the Tasman had been up to 6C warmer than average

Sea temps this time in 2017 (🌡️) vs 2018 (↔️): quite a difference! The event was well and truly underway this time last year, whereas climate patterns have been more variable this year.

Mullan said the current warm pool was also not as extensive as this time last year.

The #marineheatwave event was well and truly underway this time last year, whereas climate patterns have been more variable this year.

"Niwa is keeping a close eye on this."
A similar pattern to the 1934-35 summer is shown in this map of the marine heatwave during the 2017-18 summer, with sea-surface temperatures up to 2C above normal.

A similar pattern to the 1934-35 summer is shown in this map of the marine heatwave during the 2017-18 summer, with sea-surface temperatures up to 2C above normal.

A similar pattern to the 1934-35 summer is shown in this map of the marine heatwave during the 2017-18 summer, with sea-surface temperatures up to 2C above normal.

Last summer's heat was due to an unusual concatenation of phenomena – the marine heatwave, a La Nina event, and the warm northerly winds that predominated.

The nationwide average temperature last summer was 18.8C, 0.3C above the previous heatwave record of 18.5C in the 1934-35 summer and 2.1C above the 1981-2010 normals.

Fifty-four climate stations across the country had their hottest summer temperatures, with Alexandra reaching 38.7C on January 30 this year.

The 'marine heatwave' summers of 1934-35 and 2017-18 stand out in this graph of New Zealand's seven-station summer temperatures minus their 1981-2010 averages. The scale on the left runs up on 0.5 degree Celsius increments, from -2.5C on the bottom line to +2.5C at the top.

The 'marine heatwave' summers of 1934-35 and 2017-18 stand out in this graph of New Zealand's seven-station summer temperatures minus their 1981-2010 averages. The scale on the left runs up on 0.5 degree Celsius increments, from -2.5C on the bottom line to +2.5C at the top.

The 'marine heatwave' summers of 1934-35 and 2017-18 stand out in this graph of New Zealand's seven-station summer temperatures minus their 1981-2010 averages. The scale on the left runs up on 0.5 degree Celsius increments, from -2.5C on the bottom line to +2.5C at the top.
Mullan said it was likely New Zealand would experience the same level of marine heatwave as last summer more frequently because of climate change.

However, it would probably remain rare to have such a severe event in terms of how far above the rising background average temperatures the extremes would reach.

Extreme fire warnings were in place for Canterbury and Marlborough last summer after days of hot weather.

In a talk at last week's joint Meteorological Society-Hydrological Society conference in Christchurch, Mullan said "summers more than 2C above the climatology of the [future] period will continue to be rare events".

"This is basically a 'perfect storm' type of situation, where everything has to align just right and persist long enough to produce these super extremes."

The 1934-35 summer was more extreme than last year's relative to the average temperatures of the time, with temperatures 2.7C higher than normal.

A methane update from Margo

Continued Methane Tracking with Margo (Dec. 9, 2018)

A brief break while I research and write an article on the all-important methane situation

Even though there Is so much happening in the world I have taken a brief break to put my energies into writing an important assessment of the extraordinarly-high methane emissions and what it means.

When we compare with how things were just a few short months ago things look very dire although it is impossible to put a numerical value on the new readings.

Sunday, 9 December 2018

Continuing monitoring of methane emissions

Methane emissions from Friday, 6 December into the forecast period

At 500 mHa (approx 18,000 feet)

CO2 emissions are GROWING, not reducing

Carbon dioxide emissions are rising

7December, 2018

The Global Carbon Project projects growth in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from fossil fuels and industry in 2018 to be +2.7%, within uncertainty margins from +1.8% to +3.7%.

The rise is in line with an image from an 
earlier post that shows growth of CO₂ in the atmosphere to be accelerating.
[ Growth of CO₂ in ppm, based on annual Mauna Loa data (1959-2017), with 4th-order polynomial trend added ]

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described at the 
Climate Plan.Links

• Global Carbon Project

• Looking the climate abyss in the eye!

• How much warmer is it now?

• Feedbacks

• How much warming have humans caused?

• The Threat

• Extinction

• Climate Plan

Global carbon emissions reached a record high in 2018 – Emissions grew at fastest rate in seven years – “We are in deep trouble with climate change

Surface average atmospheric CO2 concentration (ppm). The 1980–2018 monthly data are from NOAA/ESRL (Dlugokencky and Tans, 2018) and are based on an average of direct atmospheric CO2 measurements from multiple stations in the marine boundary layer (Masarie and Tans, 1995). The 1958–1979 monthly data are from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, based on an average of direct atmospheric CO2 measurements from the Mauna Loa and South Pole stations (Keeling et al., 1976). To take into account the difference of mean CO2 and seasonality between the NOAA/ESRL and the Scripps station networks used here, the Scripps surface average (from two stations) was deseasonalised and harmonised to match the NOAA/ESRL surface average (from multiple stations) by adding the mean difference of 0.542 ppm, calculated here from overlapping data during 1980–2012. Graphic: Le Quéré, et al., 2018 / Earth System Science Data

Global emissions of carbon dioxide are reaching the highest levels on record, scientists projected Wednesday, in the latest evidence of the chasm between international goals for combating climate change and what countries are doing.

Between 2014 and 2016, emissions remained largely flat, leading to hopes that the world was beginning to turn a corner. Those hopes appear to have been dashed. In 2017, global emissions grew 1.6 percent. The rise in 2018 is projected to be 2.7 percent.

The expected increase, which would bring fossil fuel and industrial emissions to a record high of 37.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide per year, is being driven by a nearly 5 percent growth of emissions in China and more than 6 percent in India, researchers estimated, along with growth in many other nations. Emissions by the United States grew 2.5 percent, while those of the European Union declined by just under 1 percent.

As nations continue climate talks in Poland, the message of Wednesday’s report was unambiguous: When it comes to promises to begin cutting the greenhouse gas emissions that fuel climate change, the world is well off target.

We are in trouble. We are in deep trouble with climate change,” United Nations Secretary General António Guterres said this week at the opening of the 24th annual U.N. climate conference, where countries will wrestle with the ambitious goals they need to meet to sharply reduce carbon emissions in the coming years.

It is hard to overstate the urgency of our situation,” he said. “Even as we witness devastating climate impacts causing havoc across the world, we are still not doing enough, nor moving fast enough, to prevent irreversible and catastrophic climate disruption.”

Guterres was not commenting specifically on Wednesday’s findings, which were released in a trio of scientific papers by researchers with the Global Carbon Project. But his words came amid a litany of grim news in the fall in which scientists have warned that the effects of climate change are no longer distant and hypothetical, and that the effects of global warming will only intensify in the absence of aggressive international action.

In October, a top U.N.-backed scientific panel found that nations have barely a decade to take “unprecedented” actions and cut their emissions in half by 2030 to prevent the worst consequences of climate change. The panel’s report found “no documented historic precedent” for the rapid changes to the infrastructure of society that would be needed to hold warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels.

The unmitigated growth of carbon emissions, 1959-2018. In 2018, emissions grew by 2.7 percent, the highest rate in seven years. Graphic: The Washington Post

The EU was desinged as a stepping stone towards the creation of a one world government.

I see myself frequently in disagreement with Richie Allen – but is worthwhile listening to.

What They (Media, Politicians) Never Tell You About The EU & The One World Government Agenda

the Richie Allen Show

This is an excerpt from the Richie Allen Show of Wednesday November 14th 2018. Richie explains the history of the EU, how it works and why it was always meant to be a giant stepping stone towards the creation of a one world government.

The riots in France are all about the West;s decline

Written by a conservative Frenchman living in the United States this comes pretty close to providing the bigger picture although I do not agree with the conclusion.

I do not see a positive outcome for this or anything else that is happening in Europe.
The Riots In France Aren’t Just About Gas Taxes, But About The West’s Decline
The yellow jacket protests are just a small symptom of a much larger problem––the decline and fall of once-magnificent France.

By Auguste Meyrat

Paris Riots Against Macron, Gas Tax, Worst in a Decade – GOPUSA

7 December, 2018

This past week, Parisians in yellow safety vests took to the streets to riot against French leadership. They have defaced the Arc de Triomphe, thrown rocks at policemen and soldiers, and lit fires all over the city. Macron literally had egg on his face and continues to suffer abysmal approval ratings, while the current protests enjoy high approval ratings in the country, despite the destruction.

Most commentary (which happened all over France, not just Paris) has focused on the fuel tax increase as the main reason for the protests, as though the French have never paid exorbitant taxes before. It has also characterized the yellow vest protests as a recent event, but they had been going on for weeks before they became violent these past few days.
Macron and the French media have unsurprisingly tried to pin the protests and riots on Marine Le Pen’s racist minions without evidence, while residents in France have claimed that the protesters are mostly middle-aged Frenchmen with no political affiliation.

Losing the Body and Soul of France

While protests and car-burnings are actually common in France, what’s happening now is much worse than usual and will not go away anytime soon. What observers should know is that this is not about fuel prices or Macron’s incompetence; this is about the fall of the West.
People have long complained of France losing its soul by becoming a secularized, progressive, socialist welfare state shortly after two miserable losses in the two world wars. After being known for its fine arts, beautiful landscapes, rich Catholic tradition, genius philosophers and scientists, and famous monuments, people now see France as a stagnant irrelevant pool of decadence (this descent is captured well in Thomas Merton’s description of the country in Seven Storey Mountain).

It is the land of nasty writers like Celine and Michel Houellebecq, nasty singers like Serge Gainsbourg, and nasty architecture like the Musee de Pompidou. All the same, most Frenchmen didn’t seem to mind this decline as long as they could have shorter workweeks and socialized health care.
As a result of losing its soul, France has also been losing its body—its people, communities, business, and infrastructure. Like the rest of the developed world, the French are having fewer children and compensate for the population loss by taking in more immigrants. Consequently, the Parisian slums keep expanding while French villages gradually disappear.

The lucky few French workers who actually have a job labor under heavier tax burdens and can afford little. Middle-class families are lucky if they own a small apartment, an economy car, and a set of cheap clothes from China. The luxury products sold on the Champs-Elysees and elsewhere are mainly for the rich.

The most striking sign of decline in France for people visiting, however, is the disintegrating infrastructure. The government will go to great lengths to keep its landmarks safe and relatively clean, but it cannot hide the graffiti that mars everything, from train cars to buildings. It also cannot extinguish the stench of urine, feces, and body odor from the homeless, permeating every public space. Even if the roads are kept up in most places (thanks to high fuel prices, high tolls, and light, fuel-efficient cars), the subways and trains are decades old and decrepit.

To make matters worse, French cities feature ghettos of unassimilated immigrants who pose an ever-increasing drag on the economy and culture. They do not speak French; they do not work; some of them follow Muslim Sharia law; and they make up much of the country’s poverty, crime, and terrorism (“no-go zones”). They also collect handsome taxpayer benefits. For this reason, the protesters are also calling for France to vote against the UN migration pact, an agreement that would undermine participating countries’ efforts to regulate migration.

The Elites Fail to Respond to a Dying France


Those in charge of France, a very obvious class of elites, have responded by covering their eyes and ears, holding their noses, and spewing out platitudes about diversity and the global community. Naturally, the media and academy support them and allow them to rule over the French very much like the aristocracy before the French Revolution. Shilling for the European Union, climate change, and birth control while railing against nationalism and Trump, childless yet youthful Emmanuel Macron is the perfect symbol of this group.

For those wondering who the other choices for president were, there was Francois Fillon, a center-right candidate accused of hiring and paying family members for work they didn’t do, and Marine Le Pen, politician who was forced to take a psychiatric examination for tweeting images of ISIS murders. Like his predecessor, Francois “Mr. Normal” Holland, Macron just had to stay boring and maintain the status quo to win the presidency.
It is this whole miserable state of affairs that the French are protesting. France, and most other countries in the Western world, are on an unsustainable course. Taxes, the political establishment, ghost towns in “La France profonde,” nationalism, globalism, and the rest of it are all symptoms of the same underlying malaise.

The riots and protests are also symptoms. Although perhaps cathartic, they will not solve anything. People who resort to violence have rejected the merits of reasoned debate and fair elections. The French who used to be so proud of their republic are now opting for mob rule.
As history can attest—most notably the French Revolution—mob rule doesn’t end well. If it succeeds in toppling a government, it almost always results in an autocracy, like that of Napoleon. If it doesn’t succeed, it leads to a corrupt oligarchy or elite that doubles down on anti-democratic practices, like what’s happening in EU countries today.

Angry Masses, Disconnected Elites, and No True Leaders


For real reform, the people need leadership—intellectual leaders, political leaders, and economic leaders. In other words—and populists will undoubtedly cringe at this—they need their own elite. Unlike their American cousins across the pond, French conservatives do not have an elite. They have angry masses of people who have rejected the status quo, but have not seriously embraced a clear path forward.
Hating the EU, the UN, mass migration, Macron, and high taxes will not lead to constructive reform. Only if this energy is channeled into articulating a vision for transcendent, cohesive ideals such as limited government, free speech, free market capitalism, and a return to orthodox Christianity will the French have any hope of returning to their former glory.

As for the rest of the world, they should take heed at what is unfolding in the streets of Paris. In many ways, France is simply further along in the progressive experiment than other countries in the West. English Prime Minister Theresa May’s cowardice in carrying out Brexit will likely spark similar kinds of protests, and Angela Merkel is now paying immigrants to leave Germany in order to keep the peace in her country.

The United States is different only in that it is a few decades behind. Conservatives here do have an elite (although a much smaller, less influential one than liberals), which is divided between those who support Trump and those who don’t (although the latter is quickly disappearing). Nevertheless, many conservatives fear that Trump may be the last Republican president before the inevitable decline brought on by liberals’ stranglehold on the culture. Once that decline comes, Americans will take to the streets and voice their grievances like the French people are doing now.

So let the events in Europe be a warning to Americans here: progressive policies will slowly but surely work their ruin on any society, and it’s incumbent on conservatives today to counteract this by supporting their own elite and exercising the civic duties responsibly (i.e. voting for good candidates, challenging injustice, and defending essential freedoms). Not only should this be done for posterity, but for the sake of protesters around the world who are fighting for the same things.

Auguste Meyrat is an English teacher in the Dallas area. He holds an MA in humanities and an MEd in educational leadership. He is the senior editor of The Everyman and has written essays for The Federalist, The American Conservative, and The Imaginative Conservative, as well as the Dallas Institute of Humanities and Culture. Follow him on Twitter.

COP24 fails to adopt key scientific report

They can’t even agree on an IPCC report that scarcely begins to reflect reality.
Climate change: COP24 fails to adopt key scientific report

7 December, 2018

Attempts to incorporate a key scientific study into global climate talks in Poland have failed.

Very sad day & night in Paris. Maybe it’s time to end the ridiculous and extremely expensive Paris Agreement and return money back to the people in the form of lower taxes? The U.S. was way ahead of the curve on that and the only major country where emissions went down last year!
The IPCC report on the impacts of a temperature rise of 1.5C, had a significant impact when it was launched last October.

Scientists and many delegates in Poland were shocked as the US, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Kuwait objected to this meeting "welcoming" the report.

It was the 2015 climate conference that had commissioned the landmark study.

The report said that the world is now completely off track, heading more towards 3C this century rather than 1.5C.

Keeping to the preferred target would need "rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society". If warming was to be kept to 1.5C this century, then emissions of carbon dioxide would have to be reduced by 45% by 2030.

The report, launched in Incheon in South Korea, had an immediate impact winning praise from politicians all over the world.

But negotiators here ran into serious trouble when Saudi Arabia, the US, Russia and Kuwait objected to the conference "welcoming" the document.

Instead they wanted to support a much more lukewarm phrase, that the conference would "take note" of the report.

Saudi Arabia had fought until the last minute in Korea to limit the conclusions of the document. Eventually they gave in. But it now seems that they have brought their objections to Poland.

The dispute dragged on as huddles of negotiators met in corners of the plenary session here, trying to agree a compromise wording.

None was forthcoming.

With no consensus, under UN rules the passage of text had to be dropped.

Many countries expressed frustration and disappointment at the outcome.

"It's not about one word or another, it is us being in a position to welcome a report we commissioned in the first place," said Ruenna Haynes from St Kitts and Nevis.

"If there is anything ludicrous about the discussion it's that we can't welcome the report," she said to spontaneous applause.

Scientists and campaigners were also extremely disappointed by the outcome.

"We are really angry and find it atrocious that some countries dismiss the messages and the consequences that we are facing, by not accepting what is unequivocal and not acting upon it," said Yamide Dagnet from the World Resources Institute, and a former climate negotiator for the UK.

Others noted that Saudi Arabia and the US had supported the report when it was launched in October. It appears that the Saudis and the US baulked at the political implications of the UN body putting the IPCC report at its heart.

"Climate science is not a political football," said Camilla Born, from climate think tank E3G.

"All the worlds governments - Saudi included - agreed the 1.5C report and we deserve the truth. Saudi can't argue with physics, the climate will keep on changing."

Many delegates are now hoping that ministers, who arrive on Monday, will try and revive efforts to put this key report at the heart of the conference.

"We hope that the rest of the world will rally and we get a decisive response to the report," said Yamide Dagnet.

"I sincerely hope that all countries will fight that we don't leave COP24 having missed a moment of history."