Thursday, 26 July 2018

The coming el-Nino will make Australia's WINTER drought MUCH WORSE


Weather catastrophe: Farmers crippled by the 'worst drought in 100 years' are facing another TWO YEARS of scorching temperatures and no rain
  • The Bureau of Meteorology has warned of a possible El Niño event by year's end
  • Queensland farmers already struggling after five-year drought now face disaster
  • Almost 60 per cent of state is in drought, as is 52 per cent of New South Wales
  • Farmers in Victoria, South Australia, NSW and Queensland hit by lack of rainfall
  • For Australia as a whole, April to June 2018 has been the fourth-driest since 1900
  • El Niño could mean another two years of scorching temperatures and low rainfall

25 July, 2018

An El Niño event has been predicted for the end of the year, leaving farmers already struggling with a devastating five-year drought facing disaster.
The Bureau of Meteorology announced the odds of an El Niño system forming this year are now twice as high as normal.
El Niño events often result in severe droughts, bringing higher temperatures, lower than average rainfall and increased risk of bushfires, lasting as long as two years.
If an El Niño does form in the latter half of 2018, it could prove catastrophic for parched Australian farmers who have been crippled by a years-long nationwide dry spell which some are describing as the worst drought in 100 years.
An El Niño event has been predicted for the end of the year, leaving farmers already struggling with a devastating five-year drought facing disaster (pictured is a drought-affected property in NSW)
+11An El Niño event has been predicted for the end of the year, leaving farmers already struggling with a devastating five-year drought facing disaster (pictured is a drought-affected property in NSW)
The Bureau of Meteorology announced the odds of an El Niño system forming this year are now twice as high as normal (pictured is a drought-affected property in NSW)
+1The Bureau of Meteorology announced the odds of an El Niño system forming this year are now twice as high as normal (pictured is a drought-affected property in NSW)
Pictured is a sea surface temperature map showing the effects of an El Niño event in 1997
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Pictured is a sea surface temperature map showing the effects of an El Niño event in 1997
Pictured is a sea surface temperature map showing the effects of an El Niña event in 1988
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Pictured is a sea surface temperature map showing the effects of an El Niña event in 1988



BOM senior forecaster David Crock said on Wednesday there is typically about a 25 per cent chance of an El Niño pattern developing.

The likelihood of one forming is now at 50 per cent, approximately double the normal probability.
'During El Niño, rainfall in eastern Australia is typically below average during winter–spring,' the Bureau of Meteorology stated.
'Daytime temperatures are also typically warmer than average for southern Australia. A neutral ENSO phase has little effect on Australian climate.
'Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the tropical Pacific will continue to warm. 
'Five of eight models indicate this warming will reach El Niño levels in the southern hemisphere spring, while a sixth model reaches El Niño levels in December.'
 The Bureau of Meteorology has warned the chances of an El Niño event are twice as high as usual
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 The Bureau of Meteorology has warned the chances of an El Niño event are twice as high as usual
El Niño events often result in severe droughts, bringing higher temperatures, lower than average rainfall and increased risk of bushfires (pictured is a drought-affected property in NSW)
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El Niño events often result in severe droughts, bringing higher temperatures, lower than average rainfall and increased risk of bushfires (pictured is a drought-affected property in NSW)
El Niño events can last as long as two years, and are caused by a warming of the ocean surface or above-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.
Of Australia's ten driest years on record, seven occurred during El Niño years, and 18 of the 27 events since 1900 have triggered droughts.
The period from April to June this year has been the fourth-driest since comparable records commenced in 1900, the Bureau of Meteorology said.
Almost 60 per cent of Queensland is stricken by drought, while in New South Wales less than one per cent of the state is unaffected.  
According to the Queensland government, 23 councils and four part council areas are drought-declared, along with 73 individually droughted properties in other areas
According to the Queensland government, 23 councils and four part council areas are drought-declared, along with 73 individually droughted properties in other areas
Serious to severe rainfall deficiencies are present in southeastern South Australia and western to Northern Country Victoria, and in parts of Gippsland, Victoria
+1Serious to severe rainfall deficiencies are present in southeastern South Australia and western to Northern Country Victoria, and in parts of Gippsland, Victoria
New South Wales government figures show 48 per cent of the state is drought affected, 36.5 per cent is experiencing drought (pictured is a drought-affected property in NSW)
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New South Wales government figures show 48 per cent of the state is drought affected, 36.5 per cent is experiencing drought (pictured is a drought-affected property in NSW)
According to the Queensland government, 23 councils and four part council areas are drought-declared, along with 73 individually droughted properties in other areas.
New South Wales government figures show 48 per cent of the state is drought affected, 36.5 per cent is experiencing drought.
An additional 15.3 per cent is suffering from intense drought, with only 0.2 per cent given a non-drought status.
The Kimberley and the southwestern quarter of Western Australia, most of the Northern Territory, and large parts of South Australia, New South Wales, and Queensland all saw below-average rainfall in June.
Of Australia's ten driest years on record, seven occurred during El Niño years, and 18 of the 27 events since 1900 have triggered droughts (pictured is a drought-affected property in NSW)
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Of Australia's ten driest years on record, seven occurred during El Niño years, and 18 of the 27 events since 1900 have triggered droughts (pictured is a drought-affected property in NSW)
Serious to severe rainfall deficiencies are present in southeastern South Australia and western to Northern Country Victoria, and in parts of Gippsland, Victoria.
Similar deficiencies have been seen in the Central Highlands and Coalfields District in Queensland, and in Western Australia's South Coastal District.
El Niño threatens to hit while drought-stricken farmers are forced to shoot livestock they are unable to feed.
Les Jones, a sheep farmer in Goolhi, New South Wales' drought declared north-east, said ten sheep were dying of starvation daily, leaving mass shooting the only option.
Gold Logie winner Grant Denyer has labelled the situation as critical, sharing photos of extremely dry conditions on his 27-acre farm near Bathurst.
The period between April and June has been the fourth-driest since comparable records commenced in 1900, the Bureau of Meteorology said (pictured are emus which succumbed to the drought)

The period between April and June has been the fourth-driest since comparable records commenced in 1900, the Bureau of Meteorology said (pictured are emus which succumbed to the drought)

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