hits Syrian and Iranian objectives and weapons warehouses again
(evacuated weeks before) for the fourth time in a month. 28 Israeli
jets participated in the biggest attack since 1974. Tel Aviv informed
the Russian leadership of its intentions without succeeding in
stopping the Syrian leadership from responding. Actually, what is new
is the location where Damascus decided to hit back: the occupied
Golan Heights (20 rockets were fired at Israeli military positions).
in coordination with its Iranian allies (without taking into
consideration Russian wishes) took a very audacious decision to fire
back against Israeli targets in the Golan. This indicates that
Damascus and its allies are ready to widen the battle, in response to
continual Israeli provocations.
what is the reason why new Rules of Engagement (ROE) were imposed in
decades there was a non-declared ROE between Hezbollah and Israel,
where both sides were aware of the consequences. Usually, Israel
prepares a bank of target objectives with Hezbollah offices, military
objectives and warehouses and also specific commanders with key
positions within the organisation. Israel hits these targets
(updated) in every war. However, the Israelis react immediately
against Hezbollah commanders , who have the task of supporting,
instructing and financing Palestinians in Palestine, and above all
the Palestinians of 1948 living in Israel. This has happened on many
occasions where Hezbollah commanders related to the Palestinian
dossier were assassinated in Lebanon.
month, Israel discovered that Iran was sending advanced low
observable drones dropping electronic and special warfare equipment
to Palestinians. The Israeli radars didn’t see these drones going
backward and forward with their traditional radars, but were finally
able to identify one drone using thermal detection and acoustic
deterrence, to down it on its last journey.
response to this, Israel targeted the Syrian military airport T-4
used by Iran as a base for these drones. But Israel was not satisfied
and wanted more revenge, hitting several Iranian and Syrian targets
during the following weeks.
Aviv believes it can get away with repetitively hitting Iranian
objectives without triggering a military response. Perhaps Israel
really believed that Iran was afraid of becoming engaged in a war
with Israel, with the US ready to take part in any war against the
Islamic Republic from its military bases spread around Syria, in
close vicinity to the Iranian forces deployed in Syria. Obviously,
Iran has a different view from the Israelis, the Americans and even
the Russians, who like to avoid any contact at all cost.
of how many Israeli jets took part in the latest attack against
Iranian and Syrian objectives and how many missiles were launched or
intercepted, a serious development has occurred: the Syrian high
command broke all rules and found no obstacle to bombing Israel in
the occupied Golan Heights.
the type of missiles or rockets fired by Syria against Israeli
military objectives it is not important and if these fell into an
open space or hit their targets. What is important is the fact that a
new ROE is now in place in Syria, similar to the one established by
Hezbollah over Kiryat Shmona near the Lebanese border, when militants
fired anti-aircraft cannons every time Israel violated Lebanese
airspace in the 2000.
Israel wanted to hit objectives in Syria but claims not to be looking
for confrontation. Israel would have liked to continue provoking
Syria and Iran in the Levant, but claims to be unwilling to head
towards war or a battle. Israel would like to continue hitting any
target it chooses in Syria without suffering retaliation. With its
latest attack, Israel’s “unintended consequences” or
provocation has forced the Syrian government to consider the occupied
Golan Heights as the next battlefield. If Israel continues and hits
beyond the border area, Syria will think of sending its missiles or
rockets way beyond the Golan Heights- to reach Israeli territory.
Hezbollah’s secretary general Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah said a few
years back: “Leave Lebanon outside the conflict. Come to Syria
where we can settle our differences”. Syria, logically, has become
the battlefield for all countries and parties to settle their
differences, the platform where the silent war between Israel and
Iran and its allies is finding its voice.
Damascus, sources close to the leadership believe Israel will
continue to attacking targets. However, Israel knows now where
Syria’s response will be. This is what Israel has triggered but
didn’t expect. Now it has become a rule.
Israeli Iron Dome is inefficient and unable to protect Israel from
rockets and missiles launched simultaneously. Now the battle has
moved into Syrian territory occupied by Israel to the dislike of Tel
Aviv, and Russia. Iran and Syria are not taking into consideration
Russia’s concern to keep the level of tension low if Israel is not
controlling itself. Syria recognises the importance of Russia and its
efficient role in stopping the war in Syria and all the military and
political support Moscow is offering. However, Damascus and Tehran
have other considerations and for the purpose of containing Israel.
They have trained over 16 local Syrian groups ready to liberate the
Golan Heights or to clash with any possible Israeli advance into
triggered what it has always feared and has managed to get a new
battlefield, the Golan heights. It is true that Israel limited itself
to bombing weapons warehouses never hit before. It has bombed bases
where Iranian advisors are based along with Syrian officers (Russia
cleared most positions to avoid the embarrassment of being hit by
Israel). It is also true that Israel didn’t regularly bomb Iranian
military and transport aircraft carrying weapons to Syria, or the
main Iranian centre of control and command at Damascus airport. This
means that not all parties are pushing for a wider escalation, so
the situation get out of control? Of course it can, the question is
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