Monday, 1 January 2018

Demonstrations in Iran - Regime Change 2.0

These are nothing more than my observations and reflections. It is far too early to provide any more than this and watch anxiously.

I am not in to instant conclusions.

 Initial observations on unrest in Iran


As I watch the news coming out of Iran my worst suspicions are being confirmed. Indeed, this morning there is news of some deaths that were caused, reportedly, not by the security services or police but by provocateurs within the midst of the demonstrators.

I would like to concentrate on some of the less-expected aspects of what I am observing.

Much of what I am trying to do is to chronicle things that are not being covered by MSM (or lied about) and to avoid tribe politics where I can. I try to avoid (although it may not seem that way) coming to immediate conclusions. This is made more difficult by the fact that my ill-health (as well as time constraints) makes it more difficult to do do detailed research so I leave that to others.

I picked this story up within the first hours of unrest breaking out so i regard myself as being somewhat qualified to make some observations.

Firstly about media coverage.

Any unrest of this sort involving IRAN I would have expected to be accompanied by loud voices across the western media clamouring for immediate regime change. Just look at all the media propaganda from Iraq, Libya, Syria or Ukraine over recent years.

Yet this didn’t happen.

Regional media has been all over this. Al-Jazeera since Qatar”s falling out with Saudi Arabia seems quite sympathetic to Tehran compared with its coverage of Syria and its support of the terrorists. The pro-Saudi al-Arabiya is exactly as one would suspect.

Mostly western media has been relatively silent especially as it is Silly Season and people’s attention is doubly distracted. Perhaps the heavy propaganda will come later.

Infowars, despite the ridiculous claim that MSM is PRO-Iran (I suppose on the assumption that anything that undermines Trump goes) has noticed the same thing as I have.

But it is other media that i want to talk.

Having been following this from the beginning I can confirm it took at least 36 hours to reach the headlines on RT and on Sputnik and when it did it came with coverage of what purported to be a pro-government demonstration

Afraid to say it, my friends, but in the absence of coverage of the very-real demonstrations whether they are of an economic or a political character, is a propaganda, not a journalistic response.

Much of the time since I have been following all this RT has been a reliable source of up-to-the-minute reporting on events. I could literally see the headline flash across my iPad screen long before CNN or the BBC would mention it. It is still somewhat that way but I have noticed subtle changes and often I have to look for secondary sources such as the Duran, Fort Russ or al Masdar News.

I was told yesterday quite testily to look ‘at the other side’ and sent this video of a pro-government demonstration in Tehran which was supposed to suggest that the other demonstrations in the country weren’t “real”.

The first point I would make is that although I do not know Iran that well people will come out in the cold to protest the doubling in the price of food in a short length of time. It is less usual for demonstrations to turn political unless there is a real crackdown from the authorities. It is not usual for people to come out in mass support of their government (or of a revolution that is over 30 years old) unless it is under immediate threat as was in Venezuela in 2002.

I have no idea if the authorities, or ‘hardliners’ such as Ahmadinajad can bring their followers out into the street but the faces I saw indicate a passion that one would expect from people protesting government policies impoverishing them.

In fact on a second look it transpires this was an annual demostration and in no way a response to other internal events.

I am increasingly averse to making immediate conclusions based on previous assumptions, still less “confirmation bias” and tribal politics. Things are obviously more complicated than that.

Those of us that deal with geopolitics every day and have a good knowledge of the evils of Empire could well remind ourselves of what it might be like living in Iran under the constraints of what is a theocratic regime and under years of western sanctions and economic blockade. These people understandably want some of the ‘good life’, no matter how unattainable that might be and will look to blame the government for the perceived failings. That is what I believe is driving the current unrest.

I can fully understand that the ayatollahs have no intention of being forced along a similar route to Bashar Assad. The protests initially in Syria probably had a fairly justifiable beginning (as the very earlyMaidan protests in Kiev) but it wasn’t until foreign jihadists started streaming into the country that oppositionists started to realise that the “regime” was not their main enemy. Unlike Assad at the time the ayotollahs will be fully aware of what the Empire has in mind for them and will not roll over.

I am hoping that it will be less easy for jihadists to infiltrate Iran than other countries and they will be unable to find a foothold in the Islamic Republic.

For those of us observing these events from afar it behooves us to observe the process without rushing to judgement.

The way things look right now there is plenty to be anxious about.

Will 2018 be the year numerous proxy wars turn into a full blown kinetic global conflict?

1 comment:

  1. I got over-emotional reacting to what I thought was irresponsible(ideological) cheer-leading for protesters. 'Tho, I didn't think it irresponsible to assume NATO were exploiting protests. It's confirmed there are real protests, but the annual protest would be easy enuf. I think MSM is silent 'cause it's Iran. It's not certain, actually unlikely, a Soros-CIA "movement" would be successful. MSM needs something to build momentum. I boycott MSM long ago, but if there's "silence", while US neocons & others flood Twitter with "humanitarianism" for Iran, that is creepy. Watching and waiting...