3 to 4 months of rain to fall in 3 days in Victoria
**** SPECIAL WRITE UP! WARNINGS, HEADS UP OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND DAMAGING WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING *****
**** HEAVY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH EAST ****
**** THREE TO FOUR MONTHS RAIN TO FALL IN THREE DAYS IN PARTS ****
Good morning everyone, just when you think the models will not upgrade with this weather event they have this morning.
This set up for south eastern Australia especially Victoria and southern NSW is the "perfect storm" the likes that rural Victoria and southern NSW has not seen since 2010. In Melbourne it has been since February 2005 that this city last saw a weather system like this. The BOM have taken it a step further and mentioned it may be 30 years that Victoria has not seen a system like this.
Most of Victoria and southern/central NSW will see 50mm+ from this system however central, northern and northeastern parts of Victoria may see between 100-200mm with localised falls of 300mm about the Victorian north east ranges and southern highlands of NSW. This rainfall is likely to cause widespread flooding.
The rain will not be just concentrated in Victoria and southern/central NSW, large parts of SA will also see good falls from this (15-50mm range) especially southern parts. Tasmania will also see widespread rain 30-80mm with localised falls near 100mm in the far north east which may also cause localised flooding through this area.
Rain and storms will also extend into southern, eastern QLD with the trough and through the Cape York peninsila as the trough pushes through the state 20-50mm.
There is strong signs another upper trough and surface trough will bring more rain and storms through eastern Qld, eastern NSW and eastern Victoria early next week which will add to the problems.
The other issue which has not been mentioned much with this event is the deepening low over Victoria and north east of Tasmania is also likely to bring very strong winds possibly damaging in parts of Victoria and possibly Tasmania Saturday night into Sunday and with very wet saturated soils it will only make the problem worse.
Thunderstorms will also bring gusty winds and heavy downpours on top of the rain. Hail is also a threat.
Please continue to follow our updates over the coming days as this all unfolds.
- John's Weather Channel.
TASMAN Sea Surface Temperature anomaly.
Red, yellow and grey are all above the normal temperature for this time of year. Yellow is about 3-3.5deg, Grey is 4-4.5deg.
Up in Indonesia, PNG and in a line from PNG to New Zealand it's about 1deg above normal. Oceans are the power house for weather and indiactioins from WeatherWatch.co.nz are it could be a bit stormy next year to the east of the NI like the first 1/3 of 2017 was.
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