present trends continue, 2017 is now on track to be the second
hottest year in the global climate record. This despite a noted lack
of El Nino in the Pacific following a very weak La Nina during late
2016 and running into early 2017. Though not as warm as 2016, it
appears that 2017 will range about 1.1 C above late 19th Century
values in the NASA record (according to analysis by Gavin Schmidt)
along the current path.
is a very warm range that is likely to keep pushing the climate
system into gradually more extreme conditions. Atmospheric CO2, which
is rapidly rising due to rampant fossil fuel burning, is likely to
average around 405 ppm in 2017. As a result, global atmospheric heat
forcing is on the rise with the trend likely to continue upward
pending a major reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
Meteorologists, climate scientists, risk experts and climate
journalists should therefore remain on heightened alert for dangerous
trends related to global climate change.