Thursday, 1 June 2017

James Hansen 12 years ago: ""If we pass 1°C, It's a point of no return for global warming"

The real target, as pointed out by foremost climate scientist, James Hansen has always been 1 degree Celsius. Yet if you take the sleight-of-hand out of the equation (changing the measurements from comparisons with the pre-industrial age to the oeriod since 1950) we have already passed the 1.5 degrees target mentioned at Paris.

And yet at a talk I went to recently the message was that the climate is changing in a linear manner and we are on target for a 0.1C increase per decade.

This is not only wrong but it is fraud.

From Guy McPherson: 

"According to an analysis posted on the Arctic News blog on April 24, 2017 that assumes exponential temperature rise, rather than simply adding up the primary contributors of temperature rise, the planet will reach 23 C — some 9.5 degrees above the 1750 baseline — in 2021

"That’s in four years. 

"Lest you believe this is crazy, a similar analysis conducted in 2012 predicted only a global-average rise in temperature of 4 C above the 1750 baseline by 2030. The analysis from 2012 has proven wildly conservative."

As James Hansen Stated in 2005, "If we pass 1°C, It's a point of no return for global warming"

Perhaps we shouldn't be speculating but these off-the-cuff calculations give an indication of where we are.

17,944 km³ losing 2041/week ~18 losing 2/week = 9 weeks from now. That's one week into August in my book. (Daily losses of course suggest even earlier in the summer.)

Using the last couple of days for average, we get this math puzzle:

17,944 km³ – 515/day = 17944/515 = 35 days. I.e. July 4th @ Zero km³.

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