no mistake: 2016 is lowest ever for Arctic sea ice Extent, Area and
Volume. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise. This current Winter
Plunge is record–breaking, in terms of its severity and its
record–low starting point of less than 10 million km². This
dramatic collapse of the ice is a direct result of global warming
engineered by human activity.
the graph, the blue dotted line and confidence interval suggest
we'll be below 9.8 million km² by the end of November, so
dramatically lower than both 2012 in autumn and 2013 during spring.
We've truly entered the dreaded uncharted waters, where —
literally — anything can happen. Including annual and ever
We're into the great wide open. Plot
shows annual average* extent, not daily extent.
highlights a likely future of sustained lowest ever annual average
sea ice extent. Annual
Average Extent (AAE):
From the last update at about 9.86 million km² on 2nd November,
we've lost about 11600 km² from the AAE in just 3 days, which
as expected (November
In detail, daily extent went from 7,167,227 km² on 2nd
November to 7,603,523 km² on 5th November, compared to 8,634,401
and 8,864,357 the year before, giving a relative gain
of 206,340 km².
The average decline in AAE over these 3 days has been 3613 km²/day,
which means we've been on average 1,319,000
km² lower than
last year in daily extent.
The next 10,000 km² line is 9.84
and expected on November
Annual Average Extent for 2015 as a whole was 4th lowest
at 10.11 million
km², and since Mid–October we've been lowest ever at
about 9.9 million
km² and setting new all–time low records every day. For the first
time in 4 years we may also end up lowest ever on December
We're now already into uncharted waters. Some very
interesting times ahead, with the best chances yet for aBlue
during the next ten months.
The next major milestone of the
Arctic sea ice collapse is 9 million km² AAE, and expected
sea ice lowest ever in 2016
the start of November, Arctic sea ice was lowest on satellite record
area and ice
Those are the daily figures for the ice, and these need not be all
lowest ever at all times even within a lowest ever year, like 2016.
Yet at this time they all line up like that, more or less
coincidentally. In addition to the daily figure record lows, we have
the record low for annual
In fact, this record low for the date, or for the 365 days ending
with the date, recently in Mid–October also broke the all–time
365–day average low, set on May 14th 2013, at the end of the 2012
previously record low year for sea ice extent.
You may click
the links in the previous paragraph if you doubt the claims of
record lows, and you may discuss those records in the Comments
section, below this post. There's always room for debate, only this
seems undeniable, at this point. (That doesn't mean deniers won't
deny them, in fact their denial machine engines will likely run into
hyper drive, confronted by the real facts of super fast ice
in all, this looks really catastrophic for ice. On the upside,
winter will not be a bore for faithful watchers of Arctic sea
seen in the graph, annual extent took a stunning 101,404 km²
monthly drop, the likes of which we have not seen since November 4th
2007. 100,000 km² is yet another milestone for 2016 sea ice
collapse. How many monthly drops like this before it's all gone?
Well, computers wouldn't be worth their salt if they couldn't figure
that one out! Computer says 85 months, or December 2023. So there's
a lag between our truly insane emissions of carbon and final
collapse of the ice. Starting this November, all of these lag
estimates will be assembled in the #lagcloud and presented
accordingly. In the cloud, estimates that occur more frequently in
these ice collapse updates, will have a bigger font than the rest.
Over time, the #lagcloud will crowd up and super–size the more
likely lag dates.
Don't get it? Just about once every month there is a new person
actively voicing their concern that this is all wrong. I've totally
messed up and I don't even know ice melts in summer and ocean
freezes over in autumn and winter. I'm not a teacher, so I can
only explain the
concept of an annual average scientifically. I don't know what
motivates the person in question to actually go and read the
mathematical explanation. I usually don't know that person at all.
I've been publishing annual average graphs since 2014, and I can
assure you they are not wrong. Mostly, the monthly concerned person
didn't get the 'annual average' part. Or they thought it wasn't
essential to the understanding of the graph. It is.
For the 7–year
have a look at this post.in
this season of seasons i see collapse itself collapsing and
the future of future spinning like moths in the lamp on a
floor of dead moths