Monday, 18 July 2016

On the collapse of NATO and present events

This comment was chosen by Mod HS from the post  “The “XXVIth NATO Party Conference” in Warsaw (a commentary)”. 

The moderator believes this comment is very interesting as it highlights that there is a window of opportunity – will it be taken?


Tip of the melting iceberg


Tip of the melting iceberg

Comment by Larchmonter445
 
17 July, 2016

On Collapses:

The USSR collapsed after 50 years of containment, fierce competition, drunken leadership, an ideology that was like embalming fluid to a living body, and hundreds of billions of dollars spent by its adversaries used to weaken and destabilize its economy, after it was skewed by a disastrous war on its border.

Predicting the collapse of other units, like the US, EU, the West is problematic.

Certainly, NATO as we know it is morphing. It came into the spotlight as a fraud of an alliance post-Iraq. It does not work as a military body when the war it should fight is a ground war. It is basically a means of controlling US vassal states (member nations) and an extended air force and missile platform used in regime change conflicts.

Trump spotlighted its uselessness. Immediately, cosmetic changes are being made and new “terror as enemy” mission statement has been written for its charter expansion.

Russia has neutralized NATO’s strongest European unit, Turkey. Russia has surrounded Turkey and contained it economically and militarily, as well as psychologically. It did it with Putin’s will power and S400 missile defenses which deprives the Turks from flying over Syria. Putin’s slight moves with the Kurds has also catalyzed Erdogan to kiss his ring. So strategically Turkey is forced out of NATO by its own rash behavior which scared the hell out of its members, especially the USA.

If Erdogan continues on a path aligned with Russia regarding Syria, fighting ISIS and coming back to a gas pipeline deal, it will be the beginning of what we thought would happen in 2014. Turkey would join Eurasian development, get very rich and enjoy an economic growth beyond its wildest dreams. It would not need membership in EU or participation in NATO. It would be threatened by no one and prosper as a nexus of gas, oil, food and tourism.

Russia has also marginalized Israel as a steady wingman of the US. There is definitely movement by Israel toward a working arrangement with Russia in Intel, Military, gas field development and perhaps some arrangements regarding Golan Heights. It might also touch on Hezbollah. We know Putin has given assurances that he would not transfer advanced weaponry to Hezbollah. Also, Putin has agreed to not defend Hezbollah’s weapons in Syria. A few stand-off missile strikes during the last 9 months (reported as air strikes erroneously) were coordinated in some manner with Russian defenses in Syria. The Israelis have been prudent not to abuse the arrangement and Russia has not harmed its arrangements with Iran, Syria and Hezbollah allowing Israel these missile strikes on human and weapon targets. In the long run, it is confidence building between Russia and its national interests and its regional interests and Israel’s economic and security interests.

Russia in the Ukraine conflict is a game of another sort. It is much more pure military, though it is played out as Minsk 2, Normandy Group, EU sanctions, US hegemony and hybrid war. No, it’s a military dance. Pure and simple. If an offensive by the Ukies with NATO support of any kind, that does not matter (1000, 2000, whatever is on the ground in Ukraine at the time) Russia will destroy everything in Ukraine within 300 kilometers using the Army of Donbass. If the Ukies attack over the border into Russia (including Crimea), Russia will destroy Ukraine as a nation, totally devastating any structure of governance in Kiev. It will cease to exist as a nation. It will be a land of lost peoples, missing a huge swath called Novorossiya.

This dance of US versus Russia played out in the Ukraine may be over in January 2017. If Trump wins the election, it is over. If Clinton wins or some Dem wins, it will go white hot. The Army of Donbass will be enlarged by 10,000 or more volunteers, armed drones, missiles for long range strikes and a fierce war to the death of the junta and Kiev will be fought.

Russia will stay out of it because it is not necessary to join in. If a border of Russia is transgressed, Russia will destroy Ukraine’s national government and leave the country smoldering. Doesn’t matter what the US or NATO attempts, the Ukraine threat is existential not political or economic. A Nazi or proxy nation used to bleed Russia cannot be tolerated. And Donbass cannot be tolerated by Kiev. So, the inevitable tension will force some junta action that will be national suicide.

Nowhere in any of these situations are there impending collapses. Force will be used. Specific, local force. Erdogan felt it and shifted his goals. Israel felt it and shifted. NATO is feeling it and will shift. Right now we are in a seven month window of danger. Obama could do something highly tragic. He has a great capacity for bad decisions. But in November the world will see hope or disaster. Everything then changes. 

This election will determine the next 10-20 years. The Hegemon may withdraw slowly from global chaos maker. Or the neocon demons could be unleashed.


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