USSR collapsed after 50 years of containment, fierce competition,
drunken leadership, an ideology that was like embalming fluid to a
living body, and hundreds of billions of dollars spent by its
adversaries used to weaken and destabilize its economy, after it was
skewed by a disastrous war on its border.
the collapse of other units, like the US, EU, the West is
NATO as we know it is morphing. It came into the spotlight as a fraud
of an alliance post-Iraq. It does not work as a military body when
the war it should fight is a ground war. It is basically a means of
controlling US vassal states (member nations) and an extended air
force and missile platform used in regime change conflicts.
spotlighted its uselessness. Immediately, cosmetic changes are being
made and new “terror as enemy” mission statement has been written
for its charter expansion.
has neutralized NATO’s strongest European unit, Turkey. Russia has
surrounded Turkey and contained it economically and militarily, as
well as psychologically. It did it with Putin’s will power and S400
missile defenses which deprives the Turks from flying over Syria.
Putin’s slight moves with the Kurds has also catalyzed Erdogan to
kiss his ring. So strategically Turkey is forced out of NATO by its
own rash behavior which scared the hell out of its members,
especially the USA.
If Erdogan continues on a path aligned with
Russia regarding Syria, fighting ISIS and coming back to a gas
pipeline deal, it will be the beginning of what we thought would
happen in 2014. Turkey would join Eurasian development, get very rich
and enjoy an economic growth beyond its wildest dreams. It would not
need membership in EU or participation in NATO. It would be
threatened by no one and prosper as a nexus of gas, oil, food and
has also marginalized Israel as a steady wingman of the US. There is
definitely movement by Israel toward a working arrangement with
Russia in Intel, Military, gas field development and perhaps some
arrangements regarding Golan Heights. It might also touch on
Hezbollah. We know Putin has given assurances that he would not
transfer advanced weaponry to Hezbollah. Also, Putin has agreed to
not defend Hezbollah’s weapons in Syria. A few stand-off missile
strikes during the last 9 months (reported as air strikes
erroneously) were coordinated in some manner with Russian defenses in
Syria. The Israelis have been prudent not to abuse the arrangement
and Russia has not harmed its arrangements with Iran, Syria and
Hezbollah allowing Israel these missile strikes on human and weapon
targets. In the long run, it is confidence building between Russia
and its national interests and its regional interests and Israel’s
economic and security interests.
in the Ukraine conflict is a game of another sort. It is much more
pure military, though it is played out as Minsk 2, Normandy Group, EU
sanctions, US hegemony and hybrid war. No, it’s a military dance.
Pure and simple. If an offensive by the Ukies with NATO support of
any kind, that does not matter (1000, 2000, whatever is on the ground
in Ukraine at the time) Russia will destroy everything in Ukraine
within 300 kilometers using the Army of Donbass. If the Ukies attack
over the border into Russia (including Crimea), Russia will destroy
Ukraine as a nation, totally devastating any structure of governance
in Kiev. It will cease to exist as a nation. It will be a land of
lost peoples, missing a huge swath called Novorossiya.
dance of US versus Russia played out in the Ukraine may be over in
January 2017. If Trump wins the election, it is over. If Clinton wins
or some Dem wins, it will go white hot. The Army of Donbass will be
enlarged by 10,000 or more volunteers, armed drones, missiles for
long range strikes and a fierce war to the death of the junta and
Kiev will be fought.
will stay out of it because it is not necessary to join in. If a
border of Russia is transgressed, Russia will destroy Ukraine’s
national government and leave the country smoldering. Doesn’t
matter what the US or NATO attempts, the Ukraine threat is
existential not political or economic. A Nazi or proxy nation used to
bleed Russia cannot be tolerated. And Donbass cannot be tolerated by
Kiev. So, the inevitable tension will force some junta action that
will be national suicide.
in any of these situations are there impending collapses. Force will
be used. Specific, local force. Erdogan felt it and shifted his
goals. Israel felt it and shifted. NATO is feeling it and will shift.
Right now we are in a seven month window of danger. Obama could do
something highly tragic. He has a great capacity for bad decisions.
But in November the world will see hope or disaster. Everything then
This election will determine the next 10-20 years. The
Hegemon may withdraw slowly from global chaos maker. Or the neocon
demons could be unleashed.