Baird government's future projection for NSW implies the
state will extract more than 10 billion tonnes of coal at the
rate of almost 1 million tonnes a day by 2056, forecasts the Greens
say are "delusional" in a carbon-constrained world.
this month estimated Australia's richest state would swell in
population by 50 per cent to 11.2 million in 40 years, with an
annual output of $1.3 trillion by then.
government report predicts coal mining in the state - and resulting
royalites - will continue to grow well into the future.Photo:
report also based its financial estimates in part on mineral
volumes continuing to grow by 1.2 per cent a year. Thermal coal used
in power stations currently accounts for 87 per cent of those
104-page document excludes any examination of climate change.
Greens crunched the numbers on coal, and assumed thermal and coking
coal would maintain their respective shares of total mining. At a
1.2 per cent annual growth, the 196.6 million tonnes of coal
extracted in the 2013-14 year would swell to 324.5 million
tonnes a year by 2056 - or closing in on a million tonnes a
will forecasters dump their coal estimates?Photo:
2016 and 2056, the state would have extracted 10.58 billion tonnes of
coal - both thermal and coking - over these years based on the
report's figures, the Greens said.
Buckingham, the Greens energy spokesman, said the projections ignore
climate change and the pledges made by the world's nations in Paris
to shift to net-zero carbon emissions by the second half of this
to the NSW Treasury, the mining boom will never end, coal is forever
and climate change doesn't matter," Mr Buckingham said. "Instead
of delusional projections, we need a serious strategy to deal with
the decline of coal and provide a managed transition to renewable
projections for state royalties are perhaps even more ambitious given
the deep dive in coal prices since peaking in 2011.
the thermal coal price assumed to grow with the consumer price
inflation minus any change in the terms of trade, royalty
revenue is expected to increase at an annual average of 4.2 per
cent over the projection period," the report states.
coal in 2015 were worth $1.27 billion, which on the projected
rate of increase would balloon to $6.88 billion a year by 2056, the
Greens said. (See chart below.)
Treasurer Gladys Berejiklian, though, stood by the report's
estimates, noting the figures were drawn from the federal Bureau
of Resources and Energy Economics of the Commonwealth Department of
Industry, Innovation and Science.
report assumes, as is the case with other policy areas, long-run
trends continuing and no policy change," Ms Berejiklian said.
"Therefore, it should not be used as a guide to future policy
"As the report clearly states it is not a
prediction of the future - rather, it is a long-term model of
the state's fiscal gap to help assess future challenges and