Sunday, 20 March 2016

Ten Record Months in A Row

NOAA: 10th Record Month in A Row. Temperature Off the Charts


17 March, 2016

February 2016 was the hottest month ever measured on Earth. The planet broke a heat record for the 10th month in a row in February and we broke it by a record amount as well. The heat was nothing short of amazing with Alaska averaging out at over 12 degrees above normal. That is nothing less than stunning. The odds that this warmth is part of a natural cycle have been shown to be (depending on how you look at it) at least 1500 to one. More likely several thousand to a million to one. This heat is the result of rising greenhouse gas levels and the strong El Nino in the Pacific. El Nino events are always warm years globally, but to pass the record by this much would almost certainly not have happened if greenhouse gas levels were not the highest in many thousands of years.

201602 (1)
More from NOAA:

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for February 2016 was the highest for February in the 137-year period of record, at 1.21°C (2.18°F) above the 20th century average of 12.1°C (53.9°F). This not only was the highest for February in the 1880–2016 record—surpassing the previous record set in 2015 by 0.33°C / 0.59°F—but it surpassed the all-time monthly record set just two months ago in December 2015 by 0.09°C (0.16°F). Overall, the six highest monthly temperature departures in the record have all occurred in the past six months. February 2016 also marks the 10th consecutive month a monthly global temperature record has been broken.

The average global temperature across land surfaces was 2.31°C (4.16°F) above the 20th century average of 3.2°C (37.8°F), the highest February temperature on record, surpassing the previous records set in 1998 and 2015 by 0.63°C (1.13°F) and surpassing the all-time single-month record set in March 2008 by 0.43°C (0.77°F).

Most of Earth’s land surfaces were warmer than average or much warmer than average, according to the Land & Ocean Temperature Percentiles map above, with record warmth notable across various areas of South America, much of southern Africa, southern and eastern Europe, around the Urals of Russia, and most of Southeast Asia stretching to northern Australia. Of significance, a vast region stretching from central Russia into eastern Europe, along with most of Alaska, observed February temperatures more than 5°C (9°F) above the 1981–2010 average, beyond the upper bounds of the Land & Ocean Temperature Departure from Average map shown above. A few pockets in Asia were cooler than average, including part of Far East Russia, with one area record cold in the upper Kamchatka Peninsula.

Select national information is highlighted below. (Please note that different countries report anomalies with respect to different base periods. The information provided here is based directly upon these data):
  • Australia observed its ninth warmest February since national records began in 1910, with a mean temperature 0.92°C (1.66°F) above the 1961–1990 average. The average maximum temperature for the country was eighth highest, at 1.43°C (2.57°F) above average.

  • New Zealand observed its second warmest February and second warmest month of any month since national records began in 1909, at 2.2°C (4.0°F) above the 1981–2010 average and behind February 1998 by only 0.1°C (0.2°F).

  • Strong west and southwest winds contributed to an average February temperature in Germany that was 3.0°C (5.4°F) above the 1961–1990 average.

  • February was the second warmest for Austria, behind 1966, since national records commenced in 1767, with a monthly temperature 4.1°C (7.4°F) higher than the 1981–2010 average. On February 22nd the temperature reached 23.2°C (73.7°F) in Pottschach in Lower Austria, tying the record for the warmest February day recorded in the country.

  • February was mild in Sweden, where monthly temperatures were generally 2–4°C (4–7°F) higher than the 1961–1990 average. In northeastern Norrland, Febraury temperatures were as high as 6°C (11°F) above average. However, 2014 and 2015 were both milder than February 2016.

  • In Canada, both minimum and maximum temperature records were set during a “roller coaster” month, according to the Ontario Weather Review. Early in the month, on February 3rd, the temperature in Toronto reached 16°C (60.8°F), the highest February temperature ever recorded for the city. A little over a week later, during February 13th–14th, cold air shot down from the north, breaking minimum temperature records across southern and part of northeastern Ontario. The temperature drop over that 10-day period was extreme. Among the most extreme, the town of Beatrice, to the east of Georgian Bay, went from a high temperature of 8°C (46°F) to a minimum of -41°C (-42°F), a difference of 49°C (88°F).

  • In the United States, Alaska reported its warmest February in its 92-year period of record, at 6.9°C (12.4°F) higher than the 20th century average. The contiguous U.S. was seventh warmest in its 122-year period of record, at 3.18°C (5.72°F) above average, with the west and extreme northeast observing the highest departures from average.

  • The average February temperature was about 3.0°C (5°F) higher than the 1981–2010 average in Venezuela and northern Colombia, while temperatures were about 0.5°C (0.9°F) below average in southern Argentina.

From NZ's NIWA

Monthly Climate Summary for February 2016

3 March 2016


During February 2016, strong El Niño conditions continued but weakened in the tropical Pacific. Typically, more westerly to south-westerly air flows over New Zealand are associated with El Niño. However, this was not the case this month as significant tropical activity combined with higher than normal air pressure to the east of New Zealand and lower air pressure than usual south of the country produced more northerly to north-easterly winds than normal over the North Island and more north-westerlies than normal over the South Island.

Air temperature

The increased prevalence of air flow from northerly directions during February channelled warm and humid air originating in the tropics towards New Zealand. This was the primary reason behind the humid conditions in the North Island and the exceptionally warm month for New Zealand as a whole. Remarkably, almost every climate station around the country recorded well above normal temperatures (>1.20 °C above February average) for the month. The nationwide average temperature in February 2016 was 19.5°C (2.2°C above the 1981-2010 February average from NIWA’s seven station temperature series which begins in 1909)[1].
This was the second warmest February, and second warmest of any month, on record. The warmest February and month on record is February 1998, where the mean temperature (according to the seven station series) was 19.6°C.


The moist tropical air masses (including remnants of tropical cyclones Tatiana and Winston) that affected New Zealand in February not only brought warm temperatures and high humidity, but also significant rainfall to some parts of the country. Rainfall was well above normal (>149% of February normal) in Nelson as well as parts of Northland, Auckland, the Bay of Plenty, Waikato, Tasman, the West Coast and Southland. Conversely, rainfall was well below normal (<50% of February normal) for the eastern portions of Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay, Manawatu-Whanganui, Wellington, Canterbury and Otago.

Soil moisture

As of 1 March 2016, soil moisture levels were above normal for the time of year for eastern Northland and Auckland, Coromandel, the Bay of Plenty, northern Tasman, Nelson and parts of eastern Waikato and Southland. Drier than normal soils were evident in the remainder of the North Island as well as eastern parts of Canterbury and Otago.


Sunshine in February was generally above normal (110-125%) or well above normal (>125%) in the South Island and southern parts of the North Island. Below normal (75-89%) sunshine was recorded in the Bay of Plenty and parts of Waikato. In particular, Tauranga had its cloudiest February on record, with records extending back to 1933. Auckland and Northland recorded near normal February sunshine hours (90-109%).


Further Highlights:
  • The highest temperature was 35.5°C, observed at Clyde on 3 February.
  • The lowest temperature was 1.9°C, observed at Manapouri on 10 February.
  • The highest 1-day rainfall was 331 mm, recorded at North Egmont on 17 February.
  • The highest wind gust was 148 km/hr, observed at South West Cape on 28 February.
    • Of the six main centres in February 2016, Auckland was the warmest, Dunedin was the coolest, Christchurch was the driest, Wellington was the sunniest and Tauranga was the wettest and cloudiest.
    • Of the available, regularly reporting sunshine observation sites, the sunniest four locations in 2016 so far (1 January – 29 February) were Richmond (573 hours), New Plymouth (543 hours), Blenheim (522 hours) and Masterton (517 hours).


Reposting from earlier in the week

Well, catastrophic climate change has made it onto the soundwaves of mainstream television in the form of an interview with the infamous Paul Henry.

You can see that NIWA scientist Chris Brandolino is more than slightly anxious to get his message out. To be fair Paul hears him out until a certain point where he collapses into nervous laughter and the interview is more or less complete.

What is really revealing is Paul Henry himself.

Like Donald Trump in the US Paul Henry is a perfect representation of the average “civilised” New Zealander who would (literally) rather destroy his own nest and die rather than make any changes to his/her lifestyle.

So is the perfect person to help deliver the message.

He is 'Mr. Average' climate change denier and his response is that that I have encountered time after time after time.

Change the station and move on.

I encountered a quote that said something like – I do not fear the fascist as fascist. What is dangerous is the fascist dressed up like a democrat.

In this context, far more dangerous than Paul Henry (who in his own way allows the message to get out) are the Kim Hills and Guyon Espiners – the civilised fascists of Radio New Zealand - who will try every sophisticated trick in the book to stop educated New Zealanders from knowing the truth.

On this one at least. I would rather have Paul Henry who,if nothing else, is straightforward.

Here is Martyn Bradbury on the same item.

Climate Denier Paul Henry shocked at climate change – laughs it off anyway
Our total denial of the realities we face if we do not make significant changes now is as bewildering as our blind ignorance. We deserve political leaders who will lead, not make excuses. The very existence of us as a species demands it.

15 March, 2016

The simple, brutal truth is that man made pollution has passed a tipping point where the feedback loops built into the biosphere are now beyond our ability to control. We are facing catastrophic climate change now – which makes the Green Parties and NGOs celebrations at Paris so galling…
February breaks global temperature records by ‘shocking’ amount
February smashed a century of global temperature records by “stunning” margin, according to data released by Nasa.
The unprecedented leap led scientists, usually wary of highlighting a single month’s temperature, to label the new record a “shocker” and warn of a “climate emergency”
The Nasa data shows the average global surface temperature in February was 1.35C warmer than the average temperature for the month between 1951-1980, a far bigger margin than ever seen before. The previous record, set just one month earlier in January, was 1.15C above the long-term average for that month.
Nasa dropped a bombshell of a climate report,” said Jeff Masters and Bob Henson, who analysed the data on the Weather Underground website. “February dispensed with the one-month-old record by a full 0.21C – an extraordinary margin to beat a monthly world temperature record by.”
This result is a true shocker, and yet another reminder of the incessant long-term rise in global temperature resulting from human-produced greenhouse gases,” said Masters and Henson. “We are now hurtling at a frightening pace toward the globally agreed maximum of 2C warming over pre-industrial levels.

climate deniers like far right hate speech blogger Cameron Slater and climate minimalists like David Farrar have been allowed to dominate the debate – they need to be held accountable for their lies and muddying of the waters. Well known climate denier Paul Henry on his one hand clapping show this morning was confronted by the facts by a Scientist and then laughed them off.
The speed of the climate meltdown has shocked scientists and has highlighted how ineffective the IPCC has really been by not including the worst case scenarios as likelihood.

As the planet super heats because of the CO2 we pump into the atmosphere, more and more heat is trapped. That heat pushes temperatures up, those temperatures melt ice at the polar caps. This melting ice does two things. Firstly it reduces the amount of white space on the planet that simply bounces heat back into space so it ends up quickening the heating process and more importantly it puts more fresh water into the oceans. As heat build, frozen methane trapped on the ocean floor and in Siberia is released in massive amounts, this rapidly melts remaining glaciers desalinating ocean conveyor pumps, particularly in the Labrador and Irminger Seas around southern Greenland which shut down the flow of heat from the tropics north which in turn plunges the Northern hemisphere into a new ice age.
Within the space of a decade we can go from a 7 degree hike in temperatures to a frozen snowball.
The ability for most species to adapt to that kind of climate extreme will see many become extinct and the ability for Governments and civilisations to function crumble.
We need to be on a war footing to cope with the changes we need to implement, not some foot dragging irrelevancy.
Our total denial of the realities we face if we do not make significant changes now is as bewildering as our blind ignorance. We deserve political leaders who will lead, not make excuses. The very existence of us as a species demands it.
Next week the oil conference on Monday will be held at Sky City Casino. The only response now is civil disobedience.

To watch the Paul Henry interview GO HERE

Guy McPherson was interviewed by the very same Paul Henry back in October, 2014 on his visit to New Zealand.

To watch an October, 2014 interview with Guy McPherson GO HERE

World weather today (temperature anomalies)

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