Wednesday, 20 January 2016

World economic collapse report - 01/19/2016

I think there might be a hint of irony in the headline below.

No irony, I'm afraid, in the following headlines from Radio New Zealand:



It could be a good year to ask for a pay rise, with a recruitment company survey showing the number of businesses intending to hire is at a six-year high.


Stocks Stumble Into Green As China Stimulus Headline Trumps Collapsing Crude


19 January,, 2016

Summing up the day on CNBC in 19 seconds...



Crude (and USDJPY to a lesser extent) was the driver today as overnight stimulus hope from China's crap data was toppled by Iran's double-whammy of increased production and price cuts to Europe...

Your day in equity markets explained... China crap data (sell), that's great news - moar stimulus (buy), but Iran just cut prices of crude to Europe (sell), and now the Saudis have threatened to use nukes against Iran (sell more)... but then - spurious headline saved the world - CHINA SHOULD CUT RESERVE RATIO, RAISE DEFICIT: SEC. JOURNAL
All fundamentals...

The China headline ramped S&P Futs perfectly to VWAP...

Cash indices all gave up their post-China gains before the spurious China headline appeared (just a reminder - the last few RRR cuts have been utter failures)

FANGs ramped the open - tumbled all the way into the red - then were rescued by Chinese headlines...

Energy stocks were hammered but the bounce rescued financials

It appears concerns about energy loan transparency are weighing on regional banks...

Tumbling to the lowest since Oct 2013...

Energy credit risk continues to surge to record highs...

Investment Grade credit is still worrisome...

BUT - ex-Energy credit risk is surging also and following a worrisom contagion pattern...

Treasury yields ended the day modestly higher whipsawing intraday... with 10Y getting close to 2.00%

The USD Index ended the day unchanged, holding yesterday's gains...

Crude and Copper loved the crap China data and ripped higher on stimulus dreams only to dump it all back once US equities opened. Gold was flat whilke Silver rallied...

Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: BofA sees S&P 500 pricing in a 50% chance of recession

Bonus Bonus Chart: Earnings expectations are rolling over again!! (h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)



S&P Forward EPS Estimate Rolling Over. Again.

Embedded image permalink


Overheard on CNBC this morning "now is the time to buy and believe."
Don't panic!



Hong Kong Dollar Plunges To Weakest Since Aug 2007


Modest overnight weakness in the Hong Kong Dollar has accelerated notably as the US session starts with USDHKD down 150 pips in the last hour, plunging to its weakest against the dollar since Aug 2007...


12 month forwards have been leading this collapse and still indicate HKD dropping to 7.8650, once again testing the weak-end of the HKDUSD peg band.



Wall St. In Free Fall! Gerald Celente Explains The Panic & Global Recession W/ Host Brian Engelman.





China's economic growth slumps to 25-year low

China's economy grew 6.9 percent in 2015, GDP figures released on Tuesday showed, the lowest level of growth in 25 years.

Chinese leaders are trying to reduce reliance on trade and investment by nurturing slower, more self-sustaining growth based on domestic consumption and services.




Bottom of barrel: Crude oversupply makes producers cut oil output to stabilize market

The oil price dropped to a 13-year low on Monday trading below $28 per barrel. Large oil producers are struggling to keep the economy afloat, with the global crude prices at rock bottom. With the huge crude oversupply - some oil producing countries have been acknowledging the need to cut production.


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