the Dying Earth - extreme weather - 10/04/2015

French floods: 19 feared dead after storms sweep French Riviera

Violent storms and flooding send water cascading through Antibes, Cannes and Nice, inundating a retirement home and killing three people inside

the Guardian,

4 October, 2015

Nineteen people are feared dead after violent storms and severe flooding swept the French Riviera, including three people who drowned in a retirement home after a river broke its banks.

Heavy flooding along the Côte d’Azur on Saturday saw the river Brague burst its banks close to the city of Antibes, flooding a home for elderly people.

The French president, François Hollande, confirmed at least 16 people had died and three were missing. The interior ministry said earlier in the morning there was little hope of finding the missing people live.

“It’s not over,” Hollande said as he arrived at the flooded retirement home and met emergency service workers. “The toll is not yet finalised. In times like this, we must be fast, efficient and coordinated.” He warned locals to take care on local roads, which are covered with slippery mud.

At least seven people drowned after their cars became trapped in underground car parks, according to rescue teams in Mandelieu-la Napoule, with the commune’s mayor, Henri Leroy, warning more bodies may be found.

“It’s apocalyptic,” he told Agence France-Presse. “The parking was half-emptied but there are thousands of vehicles. There could be more bodies.”

Three people drowned when their car became stuck in rising waters inside a narrow tunnel near Vallauris Golfe-Juan, authorities said.

A woman in her 60s is reported to have died in the street in Cannes when huge storms hit the region on Saturday. Water and debris coursed down roads in the festival town and in the neighbouring city of Nice. Another victim was found dead at a campsite in Antibes, according to officials.

More than 17cm (6.7in) of rain fell on the Cannes region in two hours, radioFrance Bleu Azur reported.

Guardian journalist Stuart Dredge, attending the MIPJunior television conference in Cannes, said the venue for the event had been flooded. He said he had walked knee-deep in water on his way home on Saturday night after watching the England-Australia Rugby World Cup match.

“By half time, the street outside was running with water, and the main Rue d’Antibes road in Cannes was between ankle and knee-deep at its lower points,” he said.

“The crossroads were the most dangerous parts: the water really was pouring down from the higher ground with strong currents – and a fair few people walking home had been drinking, so their balance would have been a bit impaired already.”

— Stuart Dredge (@stuartdredge)October 3, 2015

Seriously though, this is the state of Cannes' main thoroughfare right nowpic.twitter.com/xk2V429l9X

Dredge said he did not see anyone fall into the water, although some moped drivers needed assistance. “This morning, there are a few cars that have clearly been swept along and deposited leaning against railings. When I got home the power was out in my building, but it came back on again shortly before midnight.

“I think Cannes probably got off lightly, comparably. It was a hairy walk home, but I didn’t feel in true danger,” he added.

“Some cars were carried off into the sea,” said Cannes’ mayor, David Lisnard, describing water levels reaching halfway up car doors and trees left uprooted on the city’s main street.

“We have rescued a lot of people, and we must now be vigilant against looting,” he added, announcing that an emergency plan to mobilise police, emergency responders and municipal services.

British journalist Sarah Kovandzich said she was in Le Crillon bar a few streets back from the seafront when she and her companions saw water running past the door.

“I’ve never seen anything like it in Cannes,” she said. “The water started to seep into the bar, then we were up to our ankles, people were putting their feet up on the chairs. Outside, you could see plant pots and flowers just being carried along the road by the water.”

Kovandzich said the walk home was daunting because the flooding had removed manhole covers. “You couldn’t immediately see where the holes might be because of the flowing water.”

The power was out in her apartment and water was dripping through the ceiling, she said.

One social media user compared the scenes in Cannes on Sunday morning to the zombie TV series The Walking Dead, posting pictures of several damaged car.

— Jer Crunchant ™ (@jercrunchant)October 4, 2015

Les rues de #Cannes ont un air de "The Walking Dead" ce matin, sauf que ce n'est pas de la fiction #jamaisvuca pic.twitter.com/dFACFwtM0Q

France’s interior minister, Bernard Cazeneuve, was also due to visit the area on Sunday morning to inspect rescue efforts, his spokesman said.

Hollande thanked rescuers and politicians for their work, praising the “solidarity of the nation” and offering condolences to the victims’ families, while the prime minister, Manuel Valls, spoke of his “deep emotion” on hearing of the deaths.

The Elysée palace announced on Sunday that victims of the flooding will receive help from the state under a French law that gives compensation to victims of natural disasters. A tweet from the president’s office said it would be paid within three months.

The areas worst hit by flooding were also the hardest to access, officials said, raising fears the death toll could rise. About 27,000 homes remained without power early on Sunday, 14,000 of them in Cannes.

French rail company SNCF said about a dozen trains carrying hundreds of people had to be halted for safety reasons, while roads around Antibes were also flooded, according to French emergency services. Train services are still cancelled between Toulon and Nice, a spokesman said on Sunday, adding that further delays are likely.

“Campsites are under water, and two helicopters are circling to ensure the public’s security, as some people are stuck on the roof of their caravans,” said a spokeswoman for the fire brigade.

Up to 500 tourists, including several Britons and Danes, sought shelter overnight at Nice airport, while a Nice versus Nantes football match was interrupted by the downpours.

French weather forecasters said the worst storms had now passed over the French mainland and were heading for the Italian coast.

Obama declares state of emergency in South Carolina over floods

Hurricane Joaquin may be less of a threat than was feared, but South Carolina could see an entire autumn’s worth of rainfall in a ‘slow-motion disaster

the Guardian,

4 October, 2015

While spared the full fury of Hurricane Joaquin, parts of the US east coast still saw record-setting rain on Saturday that shut down roads, waterlogged crops and showed little sign of letting up.

Much of the drenching was centered on the Carolinas, but coastal communities as far away as New Jersey were feeling the effects of unrelenting rainfall. Rain and flood warnings remained in effect for many parts of the east coast through Sunday.

President Barack Obama declared a state of emergency in South Carolina and ordered federal aid to help state and local efforts.

Downtown Charleston was closed to incoming traffic as rain flooded roads and left some motorists stranded as flood waters engulfed their cars. At least two bridges were washed out in other parts of the state.

“Where we normally are dealing with flooding for a few hours, we’re dealing with it in days here,” Charleston Police Chief Greg Mullen said. “We’re seeing areas flood today that did not traditionally food.”

Several shelters were opened in coastal counties while health officials warned people not to swim or play in the flood waters. Inland areas of South Carolina also were battered by rain. In Columbia, which is in the middle of the state, business owners spent Saturday caulking and duct-taping windows and readying sandbags.

The Greenville-Spartanburg Airport in South Carolina recorded 2.3in of rain Saturday, smashing the previous record of 0.77in set in 1961, according to John Tomko, National Weather Service (NWS) meteorologist at Grenville-Spartanburg.

“This one is extraordinary in that it’s such a prolonged event,” he said.

In North Carolina, agriculture commissioner Steve Troxler said farmers were starting to see the impact of the continuous rain on their crops. Apples in Henderson County were starting to split open because they are waterlogged and farmers cannot get into the fields to harvest other crops.

“I had one farmer tell me this is like getting all of your cash assets, put them on a clothesline, waiting for the wind to blow them away,” he said.

Flooded roads were closed throughout the mid-Atlantic region and power companies reported scattered outages in several states.

In New Jersey, storms dislodged an entire house from its pilings in a low-lying area of Middle Township in southern Jersey. No one was in the residence.

The NWS in Greenville, South Carolina, said “bursts of heavy rain are likely” in the Carolinas and parts of northern Georgia that could cause some rivers and streams to flood significantly. The rain levels had the potential to be “life threatening and historic,” the service said on its website.

Once the rain ended, the threat of flooding would persist because the ground is too saturated to absorb water, meteorologists said. And high winds could bring down trees like the one that hit a vehicle near Fayetteville, North Carolina, killing a passenger.

The storm also has been linked to a drowning in Spartanburg, South Carolina.

Flood watches and warnings also are in effect in Delaware and parts of New Jersey, Maryland and Virginia. The NWS issued a warning for residents living along the coast to be alert for rising water. A combination of high water and high waves could result in beach erosion and damage to docks and piers.

Still, the Atlantic Seaboard was spared what could have been much worse damage had Hurricane Joaquin not continued on a path well off the US coast. And some people found ways to enjoy the wet weather.

Steven Capito spent the day surfing by the Ocean View Fishing Pier in Norfolk, Virginia, where 2-3ft waves crashed ashore. Ordinarily, he said waves from the Chesapeake Bay would barely lap his ankles.

“It’s kind of a fun novelty to be out here in the bay,” said Capito, who lives in Virginia Beach. “You only get to do it a couple of times a year and it’s nice and warm.”

Joaquin Close to Category 5 Strength; Rains Inundate Carolinas

By: Bob Henson , 

6:01 PM GMT on October 03, 2015

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3139

There is plenty of life left in Hurricane Joaquin as it moves away from the Bahamas. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft detected winds around noon EDT Saturday of 144 knots at the 700-millibar level, with stepped-frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR) data showing estimated surface winds of 138 knots (159 mph). The National Hurricane Center upgraded Joaquin’s strength to top sustained winds of 155 mph in a special advisory at noon EDT Saturday, up from 130 mph in the advisory issued just an hour earlier. This immediately pushed Joaquin from the bottom to the top end of the Category 4 scale. A central pressure of 933 millibars was reported, although a radiosonde deployed in the eye of Joaquin failed, so there is some uncertainty around this estimate. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft was en route to Joaquin as of early Saturday afternoon. Joaquin’s eye has warmed and cleared over the last few hours, reflecting the rapid restrengthening, although infrared satellite imagery shows that its core of strongest thunderstorms has become smaller and less intense.

Figure 1. MODIS image of Hurricane Joaquin heading away from the Bahamas as seen from NASA's Terra satellite on Saturday, October 3, 2015, at approximately 1:30 pm EDT. At the time, Joaquin had top winds of 155 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Joaquin’s burst of strength is especially remarkable given that a strong El Niño is under way (El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by enhancing wind shear). The last Atlantic storm with sustained winds this strong was Hurricane Igor, in 2010, which peaked at 155 mph. The Atlantic’s last Category 5 was Hurricane Felix, in 2007, with winds topping out at 160 mph. The last El Niño season that managed to produce a Category 5 was 2004, when Ivan formed. However, the El Niño event of 2004-05 was relatively weak, with autumn Niño3.4 anomalies of only around +0.7°C compared to the current value of more than +2.0°C. 

Joaquin is also in an area where very few Category 5 track segments have been reported since reliable records began in 1950 (see Figure 2). Record-warm waters in this part of the Northwest Atlantic are likely playing a major role in Joaquin’s unusual strength. Joaquin was designated as a tropical depression on Sunday night, September 27, at latitude 27.5°N. This makes Joaquin one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record to have begun its life as a tropical cyclone at such a high latitude. In fact, Joaquin’s latest location (26.4°N. 70.9°W) is still south of its origin point.

Fortunately for the United States, Joaquin is hustling into the open Atlantic, now moving northeast at 16 mph. Track models are fairly consistent in keeping Joaquin west of Bermuda, but with only a small margin for error. Bermuda is now under a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning; at a minimum, the island can expect high surf, strong winds, and a few squalls from outer-edge rainbands, especially as Joaquin makes its closest approach on Monday.


Figure 2. In this map of all Category 5 hurricanes reported in the Atlantic since 1950, bright purple indicates the segments where Category 5 strength was analyzed. Image credit: The Weather Channel, courtesy Jon Erdman.


Figure 3. Satellite image Hurricane Joaquin taken at noon EDT October 3, 2015. At the time, the hurricane was just below Category 5 strength with top winds of 155 mph. A band of very heavy rain can also been seen feeding into South Carolina, to the northwest of the hurricane. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Figure 4. Flooding from heavy rain swamps the intersection of Huger Street and King Street in Charleston, S.C. on Saturday, October 3, 2015. Image credit: Matthew Fortner/The Post And Courier, via AP.

Severe flooding likely in South Carolina Saturday and Sunday 

As expected, a band of torrential rain has materialized over South Carolina, paving the way for an especially dangerous situation from Saturday afternoon into Sunday. As of midday Saturday, the heaviest rain extended from the south half of the South Carolina coastline northwest across the state to the hilly Uplands region. The swath of intense rain will pivot very slowly in a counterclockwise direction, gradually translating southward over the higher terrain but moving very little near the coastline. This will put the area around Charleston at particular risk of severe flash flooding from Saturday afternoon into Sunday. CoCoRaHS maps show widespread rain totals of 4” - 8” in the Charleston area from 7:00 am EDT Friday to 7:00 am Saturday. 


Figure 5. Predicted 15-hour rainfall totals from the HRRR model for the period from 10:00 am Saturday, October 3, to 1:00 am Sunday, October 4. Image credit:NWS/NCEP.


The Charleston area has a reasonable chance of beating the all-time three-day rainfall records below, possibly in just a 24-hour period!

North Charleston, SC (CHS)
11.95”, 6/9/1973-6/11/1973
11.62”, 6/10/1973-6/12/1973
11.40”, 9/19/1998-9/21/1998
10.64”, 9/4/1987-9/6/1987
10.52”, 9/21/1998-9/23/1998
Records begin in 1938

Downtown Charleston, SC (CXM) 

12.39”, 6/9/1973-6/11/1973
11.92”, 6/10/1973-6/12/1973
11.73”, 9/5/1933-9/7/1933
11.72”, 9/4/1933-9/6/1933
11.31”, 9/4/1987-9/6/1987
Records begin in 1870

According to the Charleston NWS office, the record 24-hour rainfall for the state of South Carolina is 14.80", observed at Myrtle Beach during Hurricane Floyd on September 16, 1999. 

Forecasters are particularly concerned that high-tide cycles in Charleston may coincide with periods of torrential rain, which could produce extreme flash flooding in the city in short order. The Saturday afternoon high tide of 8.2 feet was the highest to occur since Hurricane Hugo in 1989. The next tides will occur in Charleston at 1:34 am and 2:03 pm on Sunday. 

Surrounding states are also experiencing heavy rain and flood threats. Mudslides and landslides are possible in the higher terrain of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. A strengthening of the onshore flow that has persisted for several days over the mid-Atlantic will again raise the risk of significant tidal flooding from Virginia to New Jersey, especially in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia.


Figure 6. GOES-West infrared satellite image covering the Northeast and Central Pacific, taken at 1545Z (11:45 am EDT) Saturday, October 3, 2015. Image credit: CIMMS/SSEC/University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Tropical Storm Oho may threaten Hawaii

The hyperactive Central Pacific broke its record--again--for the most number of named storms in a single season with the christening of Tropical Storm Oho on Saturday. According to NHC’s Eric Blake, Oho is the eighth tropical storm to form in the Central Pacific this year, doubling the previous record of just four. Oho is now located roughly 500 miles south-southeast of Honolulu. The steering patterns that will drive Oho are ill-defined and still evolving, which complicates the track forecast. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center currentlyprojects Oho to arc northwest over the next couple of days, then move more briskly toward the east and northeast on a path that would keep it a couple hundred miles south of Hawaii’s Big Island early next week. There is plenty of room for this forecast to evolve, though. Oho has the chance to become a powerful hurricane, thanks to the weak upper-level flow as well as record-warm waters that have fueled so many other tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific this year. The SHIPS rapid intensification index gives Oho a good chance of rapidly strengthening from Saturday into Sunday. Oho now has top sustained winds of just 40 mph, but most dynamical and statistical models are making Oho a hurricane by Monday, and several bring it to Category 2 status by Thursday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An array of other systems peppered the Northern Hemisphere tropics on Saturday. In the Central Atlantic,Invest 90L is looking less robust, with NHC now giving it only a 40% chance of development in the next 2 to 5 days. A late-blooming Cape Verde wave between 30°W and 35°W poses little threat over at least the next several days, and strong wind shear at low latitudes will probably cap any later development. 


Figure 7. WU’s latest tracking map for tropical cyclones around the globe.

In the Northeast Pacific, Invest 94E is slowly organizing more than 1000 miles southwest of Baja California. NHC gives 94E a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Monday and a 50% chance by Thursday. Closer to Mexico, the remants of Tropical Storm Marty could produce heavy rainfall as they move inland on Sunday into Monday. Some moisture from ex-Marty may get entrained into an upper-level storm taking shape early next week in the Southwest U.S., possibly delivering strong thunderstorms to the Arizona deserts on Monday. 

In the Central Pacific, still another system--Tropical Depression 8C, the 13th tropical cyclone to develop in or pass through the Central Pacific this year--formed on Saturday morning about 1100 miles southwest of Honolulu. Moderate southerly shear should keep 8C from developing beyond minimal tropical-storm strength for at least the next couple of days as it pushes westward.

In the Northwest Pacific, Typhoon Mujigae may strengthen slightly over the next 24 hours before it moves into the coast of extreme southern China, southwest of Hong Kong. To the east, Tropical Storm Choi-Wan will slowly gather steam and may become a minimal typhoon early next week before an expected recurvature just east of Japan by midweek.

Meanwhile,in Australia

*** CLIMATE TALK 

- el-Nino in Australia ***

EL NINO IS STRONG, POSITIVE IOD REINFORCING THE DRY AND HEAT ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF OCTOBER AND MOST OF NOVEMBER.

WETTER WEATHER WILL START TO INFILTRATE MOST OF THE COUNTRY DECEMBER/JANUARY AS EL NINO STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND POSITIVE IOD EVAPORATES/WEAKENS.

We can lock it in October looks like a lost cause already even with a few days into the month. Most of Australia is expected to be dry especially southern parts, temps are also expected to be generally above average for most of the country for most of the month.

El Nino is near peaking with current value anomaly for NINO 3.4 at +2.4c and positive IOD has also peaked and both are expected to slowly weaken in November and December.

Climate models in general are expecting "a switch" once this starts happening and we should start seeing a swing from dry and even hotter weather to warm, humid more thundery weather by December or January across most of the Country.

The break down of the wetter weather will start in November from western Australia regions (which is usually the case in these set ups) and spread to most other regions by mid summer.

If we can hold onto the next month or two we are seeing some light at the end of the tunnel once we pass this period. Fingers crossed.

Map one: Higher than normal chances of continuing warmer than normal weather for October between the 12th & 19th which will generally continue the trend of what is happening now with most western parts of the country and southern and south eastern and parts of eastern OZ likely to see above average temps during this period. This map is produced by NAEFS.

Map two: CFS climate model outlook for October issued last week and it goes for a dry signal for most of southern and eastern parts of Australia. So in general October is likely to be drier than normal in these regions.

Map three: CFS climate model outlook for November starts to show a wetter signal for large areas of Western Australia mix bag for everywhere else.

Map four: The switch from a dry signal to a wetter signal is a possibility for December across most of the country as El Nino and Pos IOD start to weaken with moisture pushing back into most of the country, it is starting to look likely either December or January we will see this switch.