Estimate of time frame on Near term Human Extinction
All work and data in this link from others.Hat tip to Malcolm Light for the body of the work and David Petraitis for the following summary;
I get a lot of questions from people asking “What is near term?” When I say NTHE. And so I would like to give this long quote from Malcolm Light’s December 2013 papr for you all to think about and to pass on to your friends and loved ones. Dire, immediate near term… Use this to make your plans with your loved ones.
The best estimate of the time that methane eruption in the Arctic will produce a mean atmospheric temperature of 8oC leading to total global deglaciation and the major extinction of all life on Earth (IPCC, 2007) is 2050.6 +- 3.4 (N=8) with a total range from 2042.2 to 2052.8 (Figures 1 and 2, Tables 1a – 1d, Table 2).
The lowest range extinction date of 2042.2 is 2.6 years later than to the previous best estimate for the extinction of 3/4 of the Earth’s surface (2039.6) using aerial growth and methane GWP methods (Light, 2012 Figure 3) and is close to Carana’s (2012) best estimate from runaway global warming (Figure 4). The mean time of extinction of the Northern Hemisphere was previously fixed between 2024 and 2039 (Light, 2012). The best estimate of final extinction (2050.6) is 3 years later than the mean estimate for the Southern Hemisphere of 2047.6 (Range 2038 to 2057)(Figure 3).
The Non-Disclosed Extreme Arctic Methane Threat – Runaway Global Warming
SITES.GOOGLE.COMSeemorerocks blog on Methane;
Although the sudden high rate Arctic methane increase at Svalbard in late 2010 data set applies to only a short time interval, similar sudden methane concentration peaks also occur at Barrow point and the effects of a major methane build-up has been observed using all the major scientific observation systems. Giant fountains/torches/plumes of methane entering the atmosphere up to 1 km across have been seen on the East Siberian Shelf. This methane eruption data is so consistent and aerially extensive that when combined with methane gas warming potentials, Permian extinction event temperatures and methane lifetime data it paints a frightening picture of the beginning of the now uncontrollable global warming induced destabilization of the subsea Arctic methane hydrates on the shelf and slope which started in late 2010. This process of methane release will accelerate exponentially, release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere and lead to the demise of all life on earth before the middle of this century.
Author – Kevin Hester
Herne Bay New Zealand