Monday, 23 March 2015

Rapid climate change

We have 10 year's worth of increases in the warming rate just to catch up with today's levels. And the increases that have occurred these last 10 years are MASSIVE."

The radical changes we are witnessing in our unraveling biosphere are unprecedented and that 10yr lag between cause and effect should send a chill up the spine of anyone who is paying attention.

Dr. James E. Hansen's400,000 Hiroshima Bombs per Day in 2007 is Actually 800,000 Hiroshima Bombs today!

Getting the picture are we?

---Kevin Hester

The Earth is Set for Rapid Warming

Daily Kos,
14 March, 2015


In February 2012, renowned climate scientist James Hansen gave a TED talk.  In it he shocked the world by explaining how global warming was heating planet Earth on a scale that was equal to 400,000 Hiroshima atomic bombs every day!  

However, recent work by several scientists has shown that his estimates were significantly understated.  And the heat rate is going up much faster than we thought!


400,000 Hiroshima Bombs per Day in 2007 is Actually 800,000 Hiroshima Bombs today!

This signal of warming that comes from CO2 was directly measured by scientists and published 2 weeks ago.  Here is what they found:  As CO2 concentrations went up (blue) so did the amount of daily averaged heating (red).




However, the main warming effect of CO2 is due to secondary feedbacks (like water vapor increases) and works on a delayed timescale of about 10 years


The Earth still thinks we are at 2007 levels!-

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We have 10 year's worth of increases in the warming rate just to catch up with today's levels.  And the increases that have occurred these last 10 years are MASSIVE.


In my previous diary, I showed that significant Chinese pollution has worked to help keep the planet cool by changing regional wind patterns over the ocean, and dimming the sun's energy on the face of the planet.  

This is called "global dimming" and is a well-studied effect, though there are still significant uncertainties about how secondary cloud effects might be working to keep the surface cooler than it would be otherwise.

In addition, these Chinese pollutants are seen as a factor in the increased cooling and precipitation on the U.S. east coast, so far the massive increases in pollution over the last decade (by over 300%!!!) has countered the increasing rate of warming, but now the increase in pollution has stopped and it will like be REDUCED, very, very soon!
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If you haven't seen this banned documentary on Chinese air pollution, you should!

Aerosols from smokestacks rain out of the atmosphere within 2 weeks.  The studies show that the cooling factor from Chinese smokestack pollution could be as much as 800,000 ANTI-Hiroshima bombs per day!  In other words, the earth is potentially experiencing a total warming rate that is only 1/2 of what there would be WITHOUT that air pollution "parasol".
So, in this case, not only is there pent up response from the natural time lag of emissions and their effects, but new pollution regulations and the potential for an economic slowdown will reduce, significantly, those cooling emissions.
The revised law will set stricter standards for China's 264 million vehicles as well as for the coal industry and heavy-polluting manufacturing.

So What is Going to Happen?

In the Arctic

In the Arctic, it turns out that a significant amount of recent warming has been offset by these aerosols.  Since the arctic is normally a very dry place these particles have a much larger effect.  A recent paper has showen this effect:

The results demonstrate that aerosol-induced cooling has offset between 1.3 degrees C and 2.2 degrees C of greenhouse-gas-induced warming over the past century. The implication is that without aerosol cooling then the already large observed Arctic warming of 1.2 degrees C would have been even bigger.

As the Earth catches up to the emissions and China reduces its pollution, we will see the summer sea ice continue to collapse

In the West

This will lead to even WORSE regional drought effects and heatwaves.  It is likely that we will see SEVERE restrictions in water resources in ALL western states and may begin to see massive climate refugee crises from the sun belt region within the next 10 years.

In addition, the loss of summer sea ice will produce significant additional warming in the arctic.  This jump in temperatures during the late summer months is not modeled under current permafrost feedback analyses.

Even without this increase, the studies show an additional feedback from permafrost (shown below) that is significant within the next 15 years.
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Actual warming from permafrost will be twice the red curve

This feedback is NOT included in the IPCC projections!

Get ready, this is going to be one wild ride!



This is the third diary in a 3 part series:

Part I: The Murderous Lies of Sen. Jeff Sessions

Part II: The Goldilocks Decade

Part III: The Earth is Set for Rapid Warming

12:30 AM PT: In case you haven't seen this, you should


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