Posts
Checkers
Vs Chess: The Reason Europe Is Imploding On "Russian"
Sanctions
7
August, 2014
Chart
h/t S.M.
Russia
is by far Europe's largest net export partner for food..
and that highlighted column is about to disappear through Russian
sanctions, likely pressing Europe into a trade deficit.
Chess
vs Checkers indeed...
*
* *
As
an aside, it is not just Europe that Putin is pressuring, he is
trying to turn US industry against President Obama also...
Russian
flag carrier Aeroflot's low-cost arm Dobrolet has signed a contract
with America’s Boeing to deliver 16 new planes, despite suspending
flights due to Western sanctions.
Beginning
in 2017 the company will
receive 16 Boeing 737-800 airliners, after a leasing deal for two
similar aircraft fell through due to sanctions,
Russian media reported Wednesday.
"From
2017 on there will be deliveries directly from the factory in
Seattle. Yesterday we signed an agreement for the delivery of 16 new
aircraft in 2017-2018 and paid a deposit," Dobrolet CEO Andrei
Kalmykov said in an interview with Gazeta.ru.
On
August 3, Dobrolet announced it was suspending flights after it was
sanctioned by the EU because it flew between Crimea and Russia.
Of
course, we are sure Ex-Im Bank will also help - but wait until
President Obama tries to stall Boeing from delivering...
*
* *
Chess
vs Checkers...
Moscow’s food ban could cost EU $16bn, spark crisis in Europe
Russia’s ban on agricultural food imports could cost the European Union about $16 billion (12 billion euro) and drag the continent into the crisis, officials warn.
RT,
7 August, 2014
The Russian government signed a decree on Thursday which bans the import of beef, pork, poultry, meat, fish, fruits and vegetables, cheese, milk, and dairy products from the EU, US, Australia, Canada, and Norway.
EU trade is heavily dependent on Russian food imports, last year Russia bought $16 billion worth of food from the 28-nation bloc, or about 10 percent of total exports, according to Eurostat.
Vygaudas Usackas, the EU ambassador to Russia, cited the same $16 billion figure when speaking with a Russian radio station on Thursday.
"We are yet to analyze in detail what goods fall under sanctions, but it may reach up to 12 billion euro. Food and goods amount to 10 percent of what we export to Russia," Usackas said.
Russia’s response to Western sanctions could push Europe into a market crisis, according to the National Federation of Unions of Agricultural Operators (FNSEA), France’s largest farming association.
“It’s a double détente system. Russia will halt imports, but the products that aren’t exported will land back on European markets and create a crisis situation,” Xavier Beulin, the president of FNSEA, said in a TV interview on iTele on Thursday.
The Netherlands, Germany, and Poland are currently Russia’s biggest food suppliers in the EU. The US shipped $1.6 billion worth of food to Russia in 2013. Russia imports 36.7 percent of its meat, 32.6 percent of dairy, eggs, and honey, 30.4 percent of vegetables, and 24.2 percent of fruit from the EU, according to trade data.
Europe could end up with an overproduction, especially in fruits and vegetables. In 2012, Spain exported 100,000 tons of fruit to Ukraine and Russia, and according to the Luc Barbier, president of the Federation of French Fruit Producers (FNPF), about half of that will be stuck on the EU market.
Beulin doesn’t anticipate the embargo will last long because he believes the World Trade Organization (which Russia joined in 2012), will intervene. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius has already raised the question of filing a complaint against Russia.
Moscow says the restrictions will be in place for one year, but is willing to review the ban if Western partners re-start talks with the Kremlin.
According to Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development, Russia imports about 25-30 percent of its retail food from the EU.
Russia’s
import ban means big business for Latin America
Russia’s
1-year ban on food products from the EU, US, Canada, and Norway will
force Russia to increase food imports from Latin America,
specifically Ecuador, Brazil, Chile, and Argentina.
RT,
7
August, 2014
Russia
will ban meat, dairy, fruit, and vegetable imports from countries
that have imposed sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine conflict,
which opens the door to Russia’s partners on the other side of the
world.
Russia
will have to fill an 8 percent gap in its total agricultural imports
that it sources from the EU, USA, Canada, Australia, and Norway. The
Netherlands, Germany, and Poland are currently Russia’s biggest
food suppliers in the EU.
Meat
and dairy products from Ecuador, Chile and Uruguay may appear on
Russian supermarket shelves as early as September, said Julia
Trofimova, a at Rosselkhoznadzor, Russia’s consumer watchdog.
On
Wednesday the three countries confirmed they are ready to start
supplying Russia with agricultural goods and Moscow will soon hold
meetings with ambassadors from Brazil and Argentina.
Import
bans could be expanded to any country that has a sanction policy
against Russia, including: Albania, Australia, the United Kingdom,
Germany, the European Union, Iceland, Canada, Latvia, Liechtenstein,
Lithuania, Moldova, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, the USA, Ukraine,
France, Montenegro, Switzerland, Estonia and Japan.
Here's
what the key Latin America economies have to offer.
Brazil
Brazil’s
main agriculture exports are soybeans, raw sugar, meat, coffee, and
tobacco. In 2012, the turnover of trade between Russia and Brazil
reached $5.9 billion, and total exports to Russia were $3.14 billion,
or about 7 percent of the total $43 billion of goods Russia imported
from now sanctioned- countries last year.
The
2014 World Cup host has already expressed interest in expanding into
the Russian market and is ready to export meat and dairy products to
Russia. In order for this measure to go through, Russia’s consumer
watchdog, Roselkhoznadzor, will have to annul a restriction against
Brazilian meat companies it imposed in July 2011.
"Given
the results of the negotiations, the interest of Russian importers,
taking guarantees from the Veterinary Service of Brazil,
Rosselkhoznadzor considers it possible to cancel the temporary
restrictions on the number of Brazilian companies for the production
of animal products," the Russian watchdog said.
Before
the restrictions in 2011, Brazil was the number one meat supplier to
Russia.
Argentina
Agricultural
products dominate Argentina’s export tally. Russia imports
Argentinian pears, grapes, apples, citrus fruits, beef, peanuts,
butter, and cheese, and in 2012 trade turnover exceeded $1 billion.
Meat producers in Argentina are considering the possibility of
increasing meat exports to Russia, but like Brazil, it faces trade
restrictions.
Chile
In
2013, Chile exported $567 million worth of agricultural products to
Russia, mostly salmon, trout, fruit, pork, and wine. Russia imports a
large amount of gelatin - an ingredient used to make jello and cakes
– from Chile. Regionally, Chile exports an array of fruits,
including grapes, avocadoes, berries, plums, and kiwis.
Ecuador
Even
though Ecuador primarily sends exports to the US and EU, it still has
the potential to cut into the Russian agriculture and raw materials
market. At present, bananas, cut flower, and coffee and tea are sent
eastward to Russia.
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