Tuesday 15 April 2014

Ukrainian update - 04/14/2014


White House confirms CIA director visited Ukraine over weekend


RT,
14 April, 2014


White House spokesman Jay Carney confirmed that CIA Director John Brennan visited Ukrainian capital Kiev over the weekend and met with high-ranked Ukrainian officials.

Previously, deposed Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovichaccused Brennan of ordering a crackdown on pro-Russian activists in the east of the country.
The CIA had already dismissed these accusations as "completely false", but did not disclose whether its chief had actually been to Kiev - until now.

"We don't normally comment on the CIA director's travel but given the extraordinary circumstances in this case and the false claims being leveled by the Russians at the CIA we can confirm that the director was in Kiev as part of a trip to Europe," White House spokesman Jay Carney told reporters.

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had also demanded an explanation about the nature of the visit.

"Senior level visits of intelligence officials are a standard means of fostering mutually beneficial security cooperation including U.S.-Russian intelligence collaboration going back to the beginnings of the post-Cold War era," Carney explained.

"U.S. and Russian intelligence officials have met over the years. To imply that U.S. officials meeting with their counterparts is anything other than in the same spirit is absurd."

In an interview aired on Russian state television on Sunday, Yanukovich, who has been in southern Russia since fleeing Ukraine in February, said that Brennan had “sanctioned the use of weapons and provoked bloodshed."

The US bears its share of responsibility for starting a civil war in Ukraine, not only through diplomatic influence, but its security forces, which do not only meddle, but issue orders,” said the Ukrainian politician


On Monday, Aleksandr Yakimenko, the head of Ukraine's security service, the SBU, during Yanukovich's term went one step further, and said that his successor, Valentin Nalivaychenko, is a double agent working for the CIA.

"Nalivaychenko was recruited by the US when he was Ukraine's Consul General in Washington [2001-2003]," said Yakimenko, for whom an arrest warrant has been issued in Kiev since he left the country last month, while speaking to Russia's Channel One.

"The US is currently creating a sort of controlled chaos that is helping to blow up the bridges between Russia and Ukraine."

Acting President Aleksandr Turchinov has announced that “an anti-terrorist operation” will be carried out against armed protesters, who have occupied government buildings in the Russian-speaking east of the country.

Gunfire has already been exchanged in the provincial city of Slavyansk, resulting in the death of at least one Ukrainian soldier.

Turchinov insists that the protesters are led and funded by Russian security services, and says that Moscow is executing "the Crimean scenario" that will lead to the secession of eastern territories from Ukraine. He has requested a UN intervention in the region.



Kiev urges UN to hold joint 'anti-terrorist operation' in eastern Ukraine



RT,
14 April, 2014

Ukraine’s coup-installed president, Aleksandr Turchinov, has proposed the conducting of a joint operation with UN peacekeeping forces, signing a decree immediately imposing a special anti-terrorist operation in the east of the country.


Turchinov said in a phone call with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, that Kiev’s new authorities would welcome the possibility that if with your [UN] help, there is to be a joint anti-terrorist operation conducted in the east of the country…specialists and observers will be able to confirm the legitimacy and legality of our actions,” the press office of the Batkivshchyna (Fatherland) party quoted Turchinov as saying.

On his part, Ban Ki-moon said that Kiev could rely fully on help from the UN as its partner.

Late Monday afternoon, Ukraine’s coup-appointed President Aleksandr Turchinov signed a decree to officially begin a special anti-terrorist operation” in the east of the country, Ukraine’s presidential press-service said in a statement.

He ordered "that the National Security and Defence Council's decision of April 13, 2014 'On urgent measures to overcome the territorial threat and to preserve the territorial integrity of Ukraine' be put into effect". The order becomes effective from the day of publication.

Turchinov has appointed acting Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Andriy Parubiy, to oversee the operation.
Kiev announced an anti-terrorist operation” against protesters in eastern Ukraine, where pro-autonomy rallies intensified last week.

The Donetsk region has been in turmoil since Sunday morning with anti-government protesters seizing several buildings and demonstrations raging in the city of Slavyansk.

On Sunday evening Kiev threatened "full-scale" military force if protesters and paramilitaries declined to vacate occupied government buildings by a Monday morning deadline.
Protesters ignored the ultimatum to leave by 9 am, and a Russian flag continued to fly over the besieged police HQs in Slavyansk.
On Monday the head of Donetsk region announced that a special operation regime” was to be imposed in the region.

The anti-terrorist operation” has been slammed by Russia, which requested the United Nations Security Council convene immediately to discuss Ukraine’s declaration of the operation.

Speaking from the city of Rostov-on-Don, ousted President Viktor Yanukovich called the planned military operation a "criminal order".

The operation announced by Kiev stipulates that the Ukrainian armed forces are to be involved. The Ukrainian army has not been involved despite the four months of upheaval and its capabilities in terms of handling internal problems are as of yet untested.

This update from the Vineyard of the Saker provides as good an update as anything. It is however, apart from being quite nationalistic, truthful.

Ukraine SITREP April 14, 13:00 EST

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.ru/2014/04/ukraine-mini-sitrep-april-14-1140-est.html

It appears that the next 24 hours will be absolutely crucial for the future of the Ukraine.  So far, these are the most important developments:

The following cities have seen uprisings taking place over the week-end: Kharkov, Slaviansk, Krasnyi Liman, Kramatorsk, Lugansk, Enakievo, Gorlovka, Donetsk, Khartsyzk, Ilovaisk, Mariupol.  To get a feel for the spread, check out this map:
Rebel cities in the eastern Ukraine

The second big development is the clear increase in the quality of the forces opposing the takeover of the eastern Ukraine by the revolutionary regime in Kiev.  Up until Friday, most of the demonstrators were civilians, "armed" with bars, stones, Molotov cocktails, bats, etc. and, frankly, their barricades looked pretty lame.  Over the week end some better equipped forces have appeared, this could be due to the seizure of weapons caches from the SBU, but my guess is that there is a traffic going on between Crimea and the eastern Ukraine.  Some Crimeans have said so openly.  Furthermore, it is very likely that there are also volunteers from Russia, probably with military backgrounds, helping out the locals.   The barricades look far better built now, they are over 6 feet high and they seem much better protected.

The Kiev regime and the USA have accused Russia of having GRU agents involved.  Well, I am pretty sure that they are there - they would be stupid not to - but to present the spreading insurrection as the result of the Kremlin's covert operations is rather silly.  While I would expect the SVR and GRU to try to help, they are going to try to stay several steps removed in order to avoid a potential political scandal for Russia.  But could the GRU be providing equipment for Russian volunteers in eastern Ukraine?  Yes, that is definitely possible, thought not necessarily the most likely explanations.  The fact is that nobody really knows.

There are some pretty consistent rumors that the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency,  John O. Brennan, has covertly travelled to Kiev and that he is the one who told the regime to put down the rebellion in the East.  Maybe.  Maybe not.  What is certain is that the SBU has been run by the CIA since 22 years already and that the authorities would never have gone ahead with this plan without getting Uncle Sam's approval.  Since the offensive basically failed, it appears that the US has told its Ukrainian allies to "cool it", either to try to negotiate or just to win some time.  Whatever may be the case, both Iatseniuk and Turchinov have now promised a referendum on the future of the Ukraine and all the "legitimate demands" of the East.  Nobody trusts them (Turchinov had just announced an "anti-terrorist" operation!), but this is nevertheless a *huge* development.  At the very same time, there are repeated reports about a secret order by Turchinov to crack down on the eastern Urkaine and that Andrei Parubii (Maidan), Valentin Nalivaichenko  (SBU) and Vasilii Krutov (Military) have formed special headquarters to coordinate the repression.

Finally, there are a lot of reports of large columns of military units moving towards the East.  They even include artillery  and heavy multiple rocket launchers.  My hope is that these are moved to the eastern Ukraine in order to try to stop a Russian military intervention.  I am not saying that this would work - it would not - but that I hope that this is the plan.  I don't want to even contemplate the possibility that these systems might be used against the civilian population.

There are basically three scenarios for the short term now:

1) The Ukies give up on the notion to solve this problem by violence and terror and some kind of deal will be hammered out between Russia and the US on the 17th.
2) The Ukies do attack and fail.
3) The Ukies attack, are successful and Russia intervenes.

Can a unitary Ukraine still be saved?  At this point, I would say that this *might* still be possible, but that the Ukies have to really give up the notion of breaking the rebellion in the East by violence and the USA have to finally stop the nonsense and agree to seriously negotiate.

If the Ukie do try to attack and put down the rebellion by force, they can kiss the eastern Ukraine goodbye forever.

Stay tuned.

The Saker


No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.