Climate change in the UK

Flood-hit UK must prepare for more extreme weather, says climate adviser

Sir David King says government needs to increase spending on flood defences, as storms continue to cause disruption

the Guardian,

5 January, 2014

Britain needs to face up to a radical change in weather conditions that could be the result of global warming, and spend much more on flood defences, Sir David King, the government's special envoy on climate change, has said.

Amid the worst floods for decades, King said the UK must do more to manage the problem, potentially doubling spending to £1bn a year by 2020, as extreme weather events are likely to become more frequent.

The former chief scientific adviser spoke out as the UK braced itself for further disruption from wind and storms, with 84 flood warnings in England and Wales, and a further 220 areas on alert.

The storms and floods have claimed three lives, including that of a man thought to have drowned after his mobility scooter fell into the river Thames at Osney in Oxford on Saturday night. A teenager remains missing in Devon.

Strong winds, persistent rain and tidal surges are predicted for the UK for at least another two days, mostly in the south and Wales, as emergency services attempt to cope with the trail of devastation already caused by the severe weather.

On Sunday, the Met Office issued yellow weather warnings of ice and rain, predicting river and surface flooding as well as travel disruption, mainly in south Wales, the south-west and south-east of England, Northern Ireland and Scotland. Up to 40mm of rain could fall on higher ground.

Coastal areas – particularly in southern England – are most vulnerable on Monday because of unusually high tides and the arrival of a strong Atlantic storm. The Thames barrier will remain closed to protect land near the river.

Inland rainfall is expected to put pressure on rivers, endangering nearby communities including those along the river Medway in Kent, the Severn estuary in Gloucestershire and the Thames in Oxford.

King raised the possibility that the storms are linked to climate change and said "priority should be given to much more funding to create a better situation so we can face up to flooding in a proper manner on the British Isles.

"The important thing to get across is the simple notion that storms and severe weather conditions that we might have expected to occur once in 100 years, say, in the past may now be happening more frequently," he told BBC Radio 5 Live.

"And the reason is – as predicted by scientists – that the climate is changing and as the climate changes we can anticipate quite a radical change in weather conditions."

King said a report he wrote in 2004 predicted that a sea-level rise, increased storm surges and increased intensity of rainfall would penetrate further inland, affecting cities and causing billions of pounds a year of economic damage. The Environment Agency estimated then that for every pound invested in flood defences the country would save about £7 or £8 in flood damage, he added. But a boost in funding for defences did not survive the recession.

"If we really want to manage this problem, and I'm sure that all of us do, we will have to do two things," he said. "One, get back to the higher investment level in flood defences and, two, push hard on the rest of the world in terms of mitigating the impacts of climate change and of course this is a big target for getting an international agreement."

Thousands of people have lost power and about 200 have seen their homes flooded over the past few weeks, putting David Cameron under pressure over cuts to the Environment Agency's budget.

On Sunday the prime minister insisted the UK would see record levels of spending on flood defences "guaranteed right out into 2020 so [the Environment Agency] can really plan for the future".

However, Labour accused Owen Paterson, the Conservative environment secretary of ignoring the increased risk of flooding because he is sceptical about climate change science.

Maria Eagle, the shadow environment secretary, said Paterson had questions to answer about why he was allowing cuts at the Environment Agency that could affect Britain's ability to deal with severe weather incidents.

Paterson chaired another meeting of the government's emergency committee "to ensure everything is being done on the ground to prepare for bad weather ahead".

Matt Dobson, a forecaster for MeteoGroup, said the rain "simply has nowhere to go" because weeks of severe weather had left the ground waterlogged and rivers rising over their banks.

"It's very unusual to have so many powerful storms come in one after the other in such a short space of time; we haven't seen anything like this since about 1991," he said.

Even some old geezers are coming out of the closet to agree on climate change

Big weather events "getting worse" - climatologist

Severe weather has lashed the UK again, with flooding in the west of England and Wales forcing some to evacuate their homes. But it’s not just people in Britain who’ll be mopping up - extreme weather is also hitting Ireland and parts of the United States. At the other end of the scale, Australia has just recorded its hottest year on record. VoR’s Vivienne Nunis reports

Voice of Russia,

5 January, 2014

With much of England battered by storms over Christmas, the New Year has brought little relief.

This morning the Environment Agency forecast 21 areas would be hit by severe floods endangering life. As the day wore on that prediction was revised down to seven severe flood warnings in the Midlands, the South West and Wales. By Friday evening, flooding was still expected in around 130 locations across the UK.

Cornwall, Dorset and Devon bore the brunt of the bad weather in England, with some wind gusts reaching over 90 miles an hour. Scotland faced tidal surges, while flooding caused homes to be evacuated in Newport, Wales.

Nicola Maxey from the Met Office says it’s rare to have two bouts of bad weather in such a short time:

“The issue is that it’s one front after the other so it’s quite unusual in that they’re quite close together. And also because they’re so close together, the land isn’t having time to dry out so you’re getting a lot of rain on already wet ground.”

The British government responded with a COBRA meeting chaired by Environment Minister Owen Paterson.

But the UK isn’t the only place dealing with extreme weather.

Ireland has faced three major storms in just two weeks. On the other side of the Atlantic, CNN reported on Friday, 100 million people in 22 states were in the path of a snowstorm hitting Northeast America.

Dr Keiran Hickey, a climatologist at the National University of Ireland in Galway, said: “The big issue here is the number of weather extremes we’re seeing around the world, including in the UK and in Europe but also obviously in North America as well, and the  and that would fit nicely into the predictions for climate change and global warming in that we would see moseverity of these big weather events seems to be getting worsere climate disturbance, less so-called ‘normal’ weather and more extremes taking place.”

Dr Hickey said a pattern of extreme weather conditions can be identified in several places across the planet:“And Ireland is a good example of that because since November 2009, there hasn’t been a six-month period gone by without one significant weather extreme affecting the country and that’s unprecedented probably over the last 100 years.”

This year in Ireland a dry spell meant fodder for farm animals had to be imported for the first time in 50 years. Then a summer heat wave saw temperatures exceed 30 degrees Celsius for the first time in decades, only for December to bring heavy rain and flooding.

Australia is a country well used to extreme weather, but the year just gone was one for the record books. Ned Wickoll, a journalist based in Sydney, said: “So 2013 has been the hottest year on record in Australia according to the Bureau of Meteorology and this has gone back all the way to 1910 when records began. Not only did we get the hottest January 7th the day on record, we got the hottest month and the hottest season. Of course now the Bureau has confirmed the hottest year on record. It’s been sweltering in all parts of Australia at various parts of 2013 and the Bureau’s now made it official.”

But the country that suffered the most from severe weather in 2013 was undoubtedly the Philippines. Typhoon Haiyan devastated the island country, leaving more than 6000 people confirmed dead and thousands more homeless.

Dr Keiran Hickey said the powerful cyclone can be linked to global warming: “One of the major drivers behind hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones – which are the same phenomenon, just in different oceans – is of course, the big driver is sea surface temperatures and obviously as the sea surface warms up, it means more energy can be pushed into these storms so the tendency is for these hurricanes and cyclones and typhoons is that some of them will get much stronger over the coming decades and that typhoon is a classic example of what can actually happen as well. And of course in a country like the Philippines where there is little coastal protection, they are very vulnerable to the impact of major storm events.”

And the Irish climatologist predicts more severe weather for 2014.

Hickey said: “The extreme weather seems to be here to stay for the moment certainly, and there doesn’t seem to be any let up. The question of course is when and where is the big issue and that’s almost impossible to decipher.”

It seems unfortunate timing then for the Environment Agency to be losing staff. Today the Agency confirmed 1500 employees would go in October – and some of those jobs will be in flood protection