Iran: an ultimatum and Enterprise approaches Gulf

Things are not looking at all good for peace in the Persian Gulf - at least judging by these two articles

Comments by Mike Ruppert;

-- Ordinarily I balk at headlining stories that start with a premise I believe to be false because most people just look at a headline to form their opinions. In this case it is a series of stories emerging today that an attack on Iran is inevitable, and soon. I still do not buy that for reasons I have stated over and over here. Zero Hedge seems quite fervent in their belief today that an Iranian invasion (not just an air attack) is imminent. I am not convinced, especially since we know that Russia and China will intervene on Iran's and Syria's behalf.

However, the positioning of the Enterprise in the region, on what is reported to be its final deployment before mothballing, gives me pause for a second to wonder if the U.S. would let the Enterprise be sunk as a pretext for greater action. (Where have we seen something like that before?)

So let me repeat, that if an attack on Iran does occur then everything else that follows is moot. It will result in a global nuclear exchange and it would end just about everything. If it happens, I'll be happy to say I was wrong. But it really won't matter anymore, will it? -- MCR

Iranian ultimatum: Yield now or be attacked by year’s end

The US wants Russia to deliver a message to Iran: Tehran has one last chance for talks. If it is wasted, an attack will happen in a matter of months, according to Russian diplomatic sources.

RT,

14 March, 2012

The threat was voiced by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton during a meeting with her Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in New York on Monday, a diplomatic insider told Kommersant daily.

“The invasion will happen before year’s end. The Israelis are de facto blackmailing Obama. They’ve put him in this interesting position – either he supports the war or loses the support of the Jewish lobby,” the diplomat told the Russian newspaper.

The source said Washington has given Tehran one last chance to solve the conflict peacefully and wants Moscow to deliver the message. Iran has to make progress with the P5+1 group, which consists of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany.

The group is to negotiate Iran’s controversial nuclear program with Iranian officials sometime in April. The exact timing and place of the talks are still under consideration. The negotiators want clarity from Iran over the potential militarization of its nuclear program.  They also demand access for International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors to a suspected nuclear site in Parchin.

Such an inspection took place in 2005 and nothing suspicious was found. But now the nuclear watchdog believes Iran is using the military complex to test technology needed to trigger a nuclear device. IAEA monitors were barred form visiting part of the facility during their latest visit, prompting accusations that Iran may be trying to cover-up evidence of wrong-doing. Tehran dismissed the allegations and promised to let inspectors in.

When asked about the reported American ultimatum, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov criticized the “last chance” rhetoric.

“Speaking in this way is unprofessional. There is no such thing as a last chance. It’s an issue of political will, and Russia does everything to foster such will rather than let it wane,” he told the newspaper.

The diplomat added that the negative trend in the conflict is apparent, suggesting that “those tempted to use military force should restrain themselves and search for a diplomatic solution.”

“A war will not solve any problems, but will create a million new ones,” Ryabkov warned.

War contingency on the table

As military action becomes more likely, Russia is preparing a contingency plan for the negative scenario. Military and law enforcement agencies are bracing for a likely inflow of refugees to its neighboring countries, and possibly southern Russia as well. The exact details of the plan are classified, but its existence was confirmed by both military and civilian sources.

Moscow is not just concerned by the humanitarian disaster war with Iran would bring to its southern borders.

There are also fears it could reignite old conflicts in the region, like the row between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno Karabakh.

“We may have to block some breaches. That may cost us our soldiers’ lives,” a military insider told Kommersant.

In Israel, meanwhile, there is growing discontent with the government’s saber-rattling rhetoric, RT’s Paula Slier reports. Israelis fears the consequences of retaliation should Tel-Aviv chose to deliver a pre-emptive stake on Iran’s nuclear sites.

“There’s no logic in attacking Iran. But we have a government that’s done some illogical things. And that’s really frightening,” Sharon Dolev, an activist from the Israeli Disarmament Movement, told RT.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said during his resent visit to the US that Israel will unilaterally decide on when to start military action against Iran. For his part, US President Barack Obama was trying to talk Netanyahu out of recklessly using force, saying a diplomatic solution is possible.

Israel believes that Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon under the guise of its civilian nuclear program. Tehran denies the allegation, insisting that all its nuclear activities are purely peaceful. All evidence of Iran’s nuclear ambitions is thus far circumstantial.

With The Enterprise Just 4 Days Away From Arrival, A SWIFT Cut Off Of Iran

Zero Hedge,

15 March, 2012

Update: as we hit print, we see headlines that the UK will cooperate with the US on bilateral agreement to release oil stocks. Crude down big on the news, which is merely an advance move ahead of almost inevitable war with Iran, simply to make the spike more palatable.

The push to get Iran to do something terminally irrational (now that USS Enterprise in its final tour of duty is almost on location just off the side of CVN-70 Lincoln and CVN-72 Vinson in the Arabian Sea, where the US will shortly have not one, not two, but three aircraft carriers) is now in its final stretch. As AP reported earlier, Iran has been now entirely cut off from the global financial system, as that anchor of international financial transactions, SWIFT, has just taken Iran off the grid. This leaves Iran with just three options for international trade: making gold into a fully convertible currency, barter, or exchanging Rials for Renminbi and other local currencies.

From the AP:

The SWIFT global financial transaction service said Thursday that it was cutting ties with Iranian banks that are subject to European Union sanctions aimed at discouraging the country from developing nuclear weapons.

The action effectively enforces EU sanction because the world's financial transactions are impossible without using SWIFT, and it will go a long way toward isolating Iran financially.

The company's name stands for Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication. It is a banking hub crucial to oil, financial transactions and other trades.

In a statement, SWIFT said the EU decision "prohibits companies such as SWIFT to continue to provide specialized financial messaging services to EU-sanctioned banks."

"Disconnecting banks is an extraordinary and unprecedented step for SWIFT," Lazaro Campos, chief executive of SWIFT, said. "It is a direct result of international and multilateral action to intensify financial sanctions against Iran."

In other words: Iran, please do your worst. And just to make it easier, the US has now stacked an entire armada of easy targets in close vicinity, which not even a naive fool can mistake anymore for prewar preparations.

Here is what the naval picture in the Arabian Sea looked like most recently, where courtesy of Stratfor we can see that not only is CVN-65 full steam ahead to its final date with history somewhere off the shores of Iran, but that LHD8 Makin Island crossed the Straits of Hormuz recently. Just because. 

Virtually the entire non-parked naval fleet will be in the Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf in the next 4-6 days, where 3 aircraft carriers and one big-deck amphibious warfare ship are just waiting for the order.