Iran: the clock is ticking

-- Over the course of the last week we have seen unmistakable signs of full mobilization. We have seen the U.S.'s global humiliation dramatically worsen in the wake of the Kandahar massacre and a rout of NATO forces looms large.

I do not know what can stop this now. I have no answers because answers or "solutions" are predicated upon rational behavior. We are all helpless spectators now. I am one of many who has given his life to bring about the needed change before we arrived at this point. Now that we are here there is nothing to do except wait, watch, pray and hope for an outcome other than global nuclear war. --MCR

The Navy is sending everything it needs to the Strait of Hormuz

Business Insider,

16 March, 2012

The global signs of a coming military conflict with Iran continue to build, and today the U.S. Navy made clear its intentions by announcing it's sending four additional mine countermeasure ships to the Strait of Hormuz.

Stars and Stripes reports the Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Jonathan Greenert told the Senate Armed Services Committee that he's sending the mine ships in addition to four airborne mine countermeasure helicopters.

Iran has already warned that one of its first steps in closing the Strait of Hormuz, and choking off 40 percent of the world's oil supply, will be to mine the strait and deploy its fleet of small electronic submarines.

Greenert was recently aboard the USS John C. Stennis when it was tailed through the strait by the Iranians and came away from that ride thinking "[W]e could do better setting the theater. I wanted to be sure ... that we are ready..."

To get "ready" Greenert is also bringing upgrades to mine neutralization vehicles, submarine torpedoes, optics, and weapons to counter the swarm maneuvers employed by the Iranian navy.

This move will double the number of minesweepers in the Persian Gulf, but Greenert declined to call the deployments a surge, as when forces are built up for a planned operation, instead telling reporters: "I'm not going to define it as a surge. You called it a deployment, how's that"

The four ships, the Sentry, Devastator, Pioneer, and Warrior will join the Navy's Fifth Fleet in Bahrain from San Diego. Their departure date has not yet been announced, as part of operational security.

They will likely be transported by the Navy's heavy-lift ships which travel at about 16 mph.

5 Signs That A War With Iran Is Close

The clock is ticking closer to the midnight hour regarding a strike in Iran. Israel might do it alone, but will likely have the backing of the U.S.

Business Insider, 

16 March, 2012

Is a war imminent, or are these moves just meant to scare Iran? Here are 5 signs that have piled up very recently.

1. SWIFT Cuts Iran Off: The international institution responsible for around 80 percent of the world’s financial transactions announced that it will cut off Iranian financial institutions from its system from Saturday. This unprecedented move is a big blow to Iran, and follows up on EU sanctions.

2. Majority in Israeli cabinet for strike: Israeli newspaper Maariv (Hebrew link, quote in English) by Ben Caspit saying that 8 out of 14 Israeli cabinet members now support a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The cabinet can give Prime Minister Netanyahu the green light for a strike, at the time he sees fit.

3. Netanyahu preparing Israeli public: The Israeli Prime Minister continues the tough rhetoric against Iran also after coming back from his long visit in the US. Analysts see this as a preparation of the Israeli public for a war.

4. Using Oil Reserves: There was a report, later denied, that the US and the U.K. decided on releasing oil from the emergency reserves in order to lower prices. This could be another preparation.

5. “Last Chance” Warning: According to Russian sources, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton asked the Russians to send a message to Iran that the upcoming 6-nation talks with Iran are the last chance before military action.

Needless to say, oil prices certainly play a role in the considerations of all sides. Iran is the world’s 5th largest producer of oil, and sits on the Straights of Hormuz, where 40 percent of the world’s shipments pass through.

All these moves could mount to a preparation for a U.S.-backed Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. It could also just add to pressure against Iran, trying to force it to comply without really engaging in military action.

There are many other interests that push leaders to higher rhetoric, such as internal politics. 

Further reading:

• How will Currencies React to a conflict in Iran? – Apart from the rise in oil prices, currencies will certainly shake.

• Report: Gold for Oil: India and Iran Ditch Dollar – This might become reality with the SWIFT cutoff.

• Will Oil Prices Go Down an Elevator? – History suggest that oil will be depressed afterwards, for a long time.