Romanians have ejected their prime minister – who's next?

The scalp of Emil Boc is just the latest victory for protesters, who are in no mood to tolerate the antics of their 'player-president'

the Guardian,

7 February, 2012

Protests against the austerity measures imposed by Romania’s leaders – and the overall conduct of the political class – claimed their first scalp two weeks ago when the minister for foreign affairs, Teodor Baconschi, was sacked. His dismissal, after a reference to protesters as "violent and inept slum-dwellers", was meant to appease the demonstrators – but apparently was not enough.

On Monday morning the Romanian prime minister, Emil Boc, announced his own resignation. Several names have been floated as potential replacements for him, but by the evening President Băsescu had announced that his nomination for the office would be Mihai Răzvan  Ungureanu, a historian who served as minister of foreign affairs between December 2004 and March 2007 and subsequently as chief of the foreign intelligence service.

Getting rid of an unpopular prime minister might calm the people's spirits in the short term, but the president is just as unpopular – as are some cabinet members. So solving the immediate government crisis does not mean that the problems and criticisms directed against Romania's political class have disappeared.

When he began his first presidential mandate, in 2004, Băsescu presented himself as a "player-president". A former ship's captain, he is fond of the image of Romania as a vessel with himself at its wheel. In 2009, against a similar background of political crisis, there was a de facto parliamentary majority supporting the popular mayor of Sibiu, Klaus Johannis, for the prime ministership. Yet Băsescu played his own game, putting forward two other candidates instead, neither of whom passed the parliamentary vote. He then won the presidential elections by a very slight margin and used the momentum to reinstate Boc, a politician often accused of being Băsescu's puppet.

To ensure parliamentary support for the government, Băsescu pushed for the creation of a new parliamentary party, the National Union for Romania's Progress, whose members were former opposition MPs – a straightforward example of manipulating the rules of democracy.

Băsescu is known for making sure things are done his way: he is not pushing for a solution to ease his relationship with the opposition, such as a national coalition government, or a technocratic one, but has continued instead with a frail governing coalition.

The appointment of Ungureanu is a last-minute attempt by Băsescu to diminish the political losses both for himself and for the Democrat-Liberals, the main party in the governing coalition. The newly appointed prime minister, who still has to pass through a parliamentary vote together with his cabinet, enjoys a good relationship with the president and is seen by many as an independent professional.

Băsescu's  second and last term is supposed to end in 2014, unless parliament decides to impeach him, as it did in 2007. This would require a national referendum, which currently would see him likely to lose his office, as his rating is only 10%, according to the latest polls. Nonetheless, with the present political composition of the parliament, such a scenario is unlikely. Which means what is at stake is not only the formation of a new government, but also Băsescu's presidential future, which depends on the outcome of this year's parliamentary elections and the political composition of the parliament.

It should not be forgotten that the protests in Romania were sparked when the president intervened live during a TV show and harangued Raed Arafat, a popular health official, leading to his resignation (Arafat was later reinstated, a humiliation and symbolic defeat for the president). Or that a common slogan of the protests was "Down with Băsescu" (along with "Down with Boc", of course). Feeding Boc to the lions might simply not be sufficient to divert the dissatisfaction of many Romanians, who have learned from Arafat's reinstatement, Baconschi's sacking and now by Boc's resignation that their political protests can successfully push for change. The question is: what comes next?