Countdown to war

NATO supply suspension continues for 13th day

WWW.SANANEWS.NET,

8 December, 2011

PESAHWAR, QUETTA, (SANA): The blockade of supplies to NATO forces in Afghanistan continued on Thursday on the 13th day.

Pakistan closed NATO supply line after the deadly strike on two Pakistani posts in Mohmand Agency and killed 24 soldiers dead on November 26.

The NATO-spearheaded operation slackened in Afghanistan hinged mainly on the supplies including fuel and other commodities routed through Pakistan, as according to Afghan officials, the NATO forces whittled down their activities and anti-terror operations owing to shortage of oil.

The operation underway in several districts of Kandahar has been left unfinished with the NATO troops settled back at their barracks.

Meantime, NATO’s routine actions are being adversely impacted, as according to unnamed Afghan sources, if the situation persists, reserves of eatables hitherto available with the armed forces will soon be exhausted.

Risk of Israel/U.S. strike on Iran has tripled: Barclays Capital

Reuters,

8 December, 2011

The chance of a military strike on Iran has roughly tripled in the past year, the senior geopolitical risk analyst at Barclays Capital said on Thursday.

New York-based analyst Helina Croft, writing in a note titled 'Blowback: Assessing the fallout from the Iranian sanctions', said even increased sanctions without an all-out military strike was increasing the risk of a spike in oil prices.

"We still contend that the risk of either an Israeli or US strike on the Iranian nuclear facilities remains low, but it has risen, in our view, from 5-10 percent last year to 25-30% now," Croft said.

"In terms of supply-demand balances for the oil market, an oil embargo or sanctions on the Iranian central bank would essentially lead to a dislocation in trade flows, rather than lost outright production... However, the effect on oil prices could be significantly different."

Croft said increased sanctions from the U.S. and European Union targeting Iran's oil sector and central bank would likely, initially, have the primary effect of driving its oil exports east to Asia.

"If EU sanctions on Iranian oil were aimed at significantly reducing the flow of revenues to Tehran, they would perhaps seem no more likely to be successful than U.S. sanctions have been since 1988," the note said.

"An inevitable knock-on effect of an EU embargo would be to push more Iranian oil eastward, without removing Iran's ability to market all its crude available to export. In other words, the concentration of Iran's buyers would increase, but the total volume would not be affected."

Croft and Sen argued European refiners in the Mediterranean would be hardest hit by an increase in sanctions as they would be forced to scramble to find alternative sources of crude. Greece, in particular, has found the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) one of the few suppliers willing to provide it with crude on "open credit".

On Thursday U.S. President Barack Obama said the United States was considering all options on Iran and would work with allies, including Israel, to prevent Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

Iran says its nuclear program is only to meet energy needs, and is not aimed at acquiring nuclear weapons.

Syria crisis: Assad regime forces issue 72-hour deadline for end to protests in Homs

Syrian forces encircling the city of Homs have issued a 72-hour ultimatum for all protests against President Bashar al-Assad to stop, or a new offensive will begin.

the Telegraph,

9 December, 2011

The warning came as the regime's troops massed outside the city, apparently preparing for a major operation. Homs has been a centre of unrest since the onset of demonstrations against Mr Assad in March. The biggest protests have traditionally taken place on Fridays, the day of prayer in the Muslim world, when the mosques fill with worshippers.

On Friday, the security forces tried to curb the unrest by issuing an explicit threat. "We have been given 72 hours to stop protesting, or they are going to hit us hard," said an opposition activist in Homs going by the name Abu Rami.

Nonetheless, demonstrations swept across the city after prayers. People left the mosques and filled the streets, chanting "Syria wants freedom" and "Bashar is an enemy of humanity".

Witnesses said the security forces responded with violence, firing live rounds at some crowds. By last night, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a London-based group, estimated that up to ten people had been killed in Homs.

Abu Rami said the security forces were "going mad in Homs", adding: "They are shooting everything, especially at people going outside from the mosques."

More fighting broke out between the Free Syrian Army, a rebel movement with a strong presence in Homs, and the regime's forces. An opposition activist reported "heavy gunfire and explosions" in the neighbourhood of Karm as-Zeitoun, adding: "Our fighters are trying to protect the protesters." The Syrian National Council, an alliance of opposition parties, claimed in a statement that the forces outside Homs were preparing a "massacre".

They have resorted to new and increasingly violent tactics to deter civilians from joining the street protests, according to witnesses. A network of checkpoints has been established across Homs to pen in the demonstrators. At one roundabout, armoured vehicles had "made a checkpoint and are shooting randomly," said an activist calling himself Waleed.

Video footage showed the corpse of an eight-year-old boy, Mahar al-Huseini, lying on a couch in his home, blood pouring from a bullet wound to the head. He had been playing inside the house when a bullet entered through the window.

"He was alive for half an hour, but we can't take him to the hospital. It is too dangerous to leave the home," said one of the boy's relatives.

The regime has tried to seal off the districts of Homs most affected by protests, severing electricity supplies and communications. Some areas have been surrounded by newly dug trenches. "The trenches are huge. It makes it difficult for us to get in an out without going past army checkpoints, or to take the injured to the hospital," added Waleed.

Some protests also took place in the suburbs of the capital, Damascus, according to activists. In the suburb of Kfr Batna, security forces are reported to have opened fire on civilians.

As the unrest continued, Turkey warned that it would not "stand by" if Syria's violence threatened its own security. "Turkey has no desire to interfere in anyone's internal affairs, but if a risk to regional security arises then we do not have the luxury of standing by and looking on," said Ahmet Davutoglu, the Turkish foreign minister.

"If a government that is fighting its own people and creating refugees, is putting not only their own security at risk, but also that of Turkey, then we have a responsibility and the authority to say to them: 'Enough'!"

But splits have emerged within the movement opposing Mr Assad. Burhan Ghalioun, leader of the Syrian National Council, urged the Free Syrian Army to restrain its operations. "We are worried that we will slide towards a civil war which pits a free army and an official army against each other," he told Reuters. "We want to avoid a civil war at all costs."

The Free Syrian Army should confine itself to protecting civilians, added Mr Ghalioun, and refrain from attacking the regime's security forces. He urged Riyad al-Asad, the leader of the rebel force, to show restraint. "It is fundamental for the success of our revolution to preserve its peaceful character," said Mr Ghalioun. 

"That means popular demonstrations."